DealBook

DealBook: Bitcoin’s big day

Tesla announced a $1.5 billion Bitcoin purchase and plans to accept crypto payments, triggering record Bitcoin prices and broader cryptocurrency market surge past $1 trillion. Sorkin frames this as a watershed moment for institutional adoption of crypto, moving it from fringe speculation toward mainstream corporate treasury strategy. The move highlights both genuine momentum in crypto acceptance and lingering Wild West elements (Dogecoin's 1,600% surge).

DealBook: How Tesla makes money

Tesla reported record quarterly earnings of $438M, but Sorkin reveals that only part came from actual vehicle sales—$101M came from Bitcoin trading and $518M from selling emissions credits to competitors. The analysis exposes how financial engineering and regulatory arbitrage, not core manufacturing, drove the headline number, explaining why the stock fell despite beating forecasts.

DealBook: Elon Musk hits the brakes on Bitcoin

Elon Musk abruptly reversed Tesla's Bitcoin strategy, announcing the company would stop accepting the cryptocurrency as payment due to environmental concerns about fossil fuel mining. The reversal caused Bitcoin's price to plunge 10%, highlighting the cryptocurrency's vulnerability to Musk's whims and raising questions about Bitcoin's viability as a stable currency. Sorkin explores the timing and credibility of the environmental argument, given that Bitcoin's energy intensity was well-known when Tesla made its initial $1.5 billion purchase.

DealBook: The missing billions

ProPublica obtained confidential tax records for the nation's 25 richest people, revealing they paid only 16% of reported income in federal taxes between 2014-2018, with specific examples like Bezos claiming $4,000 child credits and Musk paying zero federal income tax in 2018. Sorkin contextualizes the explosive findings and their implications for tax policy debates. This original reporting sparked immediate policy discussions and exposed legal but controversial tax strategies used by the ultra-wealthy.

DealBook: A Tesla skeptic submits to the ”élan of Elon”

Short-seller Carson Block, a longtime Tesla critic, disclosed in his first shareholder letter that his multiyear bet against the company has failed and he's closing the position. Block acknowledged underestimating Elon Musk's ability to raise capital and captivate markets, though he still harbors concerns about Tesla's fundamentals. The letter offers rare insight into how even sophisticated skeptics miscalculated Tesla's valuation power and Musk's capital-raising prowess.

DealBook: Tesla’s trillion-dollar milestone

Tesla became only the fifth U.S. company to reach a $1 trillion market cap, driven by a Hertz deal for 100,000 vehicles. Sorkin highlights the stark contrast between Tesla's valuation and its fundamentals—junk-rated debt, SEC settlement, and earnings a fraction of peers—while noting the valuation debate among analysts and Musk's ascent to world's richest person. The piece raises legitimate questions about whether the stock price reflects reality or speculative excess.

DealBook: Elon Musk’s “ticking tax time bomb”

Elon Musk polled Twitter followers on whether he should sell 10% of Tesla stock, framing it as a response to Democratic proposals for billionaire wealth taxes. With 58% voting yes, Musk committed to the sale, using the decision to make a political statement about tax avoidance while potentially triggering a major stock sale. Sorkin examines how Musk weaponizes social media to move markets and shape policy debate.

DealBook: Charging bulls

President Biden visited a GM factory to tout EV incentives from the infrastructure bill, but EV stocks have soared to unsustainable valuations disconnected from earnings. Sorkin examines how Lucid (no profits, limited production) is valued near Ford, and Rivian (pre-revenue) exceeds GM's market cap, reflecting speculative fervor rather than financial fundamentals in the sector.

DealBook: Jack hits the road

Jack Dorsey announced his resignation as Twitter CEO after 15 years, with CTO Parag Agrawal taking the helm. The departure follows pressure from activist investor Elliott Management over Dorsey's divided attention between Twitter and Square. Sorkin examines whether Dorsey's exit validates concerns about founder-led companies and what it means for Twitter's future under new leadership.

DealBook: Who got Elon Musk’s billions?

Elon Musk disclosed a $5.7 billion donation to charity via SEC filing, making him the second-largest donor in 2021 after Bill Gates, but provided no details on where the money went. Sorkin investigates the timing and context—the donation came amid stock sales to cover massive tax bills and followed Musk's public challenge to the UN on world hunger funding, raising questions about the gift's true purpose and beneficiary.

DealBook: Elon Musk’s latest Twitter adventure

Elon Musk disclosed a 9.2% stake in Twitter, making him the company's largest shareholder and sending shares up 25% in premarket trading. Sorkin explores Musk's intentions—whether he'll push for content moderation changes, algorithm transparency, board membership, or even a full acquisition—while raising questions about potential conflicts with his Tesla and SpaceX roles. The move signals a major power play in social media governance with implications for free speech policy and regulatory relationships.

DealBook: Elon Musk backs out

Elon Musk reversed course and declined a Twitter board seat just days after agreeing to join, citing no specific reason but signaling frustration with the platform's direction through erratic tweets. The sudden U-turn—announced Saturday morning before the appointment was finalized—sent Twitter shares lower in premarket trading and raised questions about Musk's true intentions. This marked the beginning of what would become a months-long saga culminating in his eventual $44 billion acquisition attempt.

DealBook: Elon Musk goes hostile

Elon Musk made a hostile $44 billion bid to acquire Twitter at $54.20 per share, nearly 40% above January prices, after building a 9%+ stake and rejecting a board seat. Musk cited loss of confidence in management and Twitter's free speech mission, hiring Morgan Stanley and declaring this his "best and final offer." This marked a watershed moment in social media history with major implications for content moderation, corporate governance, and tech industry power dynamics.

DealBook: Five questions for Elon Musk and Twitter

Following Twitter's adoption of a poison pill to block Elon Musk's $54.20/share bid, Sorkin outlines the key strategic questions that will determine the takeover's outcome—including whether Musk will launch a hostile tender offer, how he'll finance the deal, and what Twitter's true valuation should be. The analysis provides essential context for understanding the mechanics of hostile M&A and shareholder dynamics in a high-stakes corporate battle.

DealBook: Musk nears a deal

Elon Musk and Twitter's board entered advanced negotiations to sell the company to Musk in a take-private deal, with talks extending into early morning hours over deal terms and closing timeline. This represented a dramatic reversal from a week prior when the deal seemed unlikely. The transaction would be one of the largest leveraged buyouts in history and signals a major shift in control of a major social media platform.

DealBook: After the deal is sealed

Elon Musk has secured Twitter's acceptance of his $44 billion takeover offer, making it the largest leveraged buyout in two decades. Sorkin examines the critical unknowns: Musk's vague business strategy beyond eliminating spam and promoting "free speech," potential conflicts with regulators, and implications for content moderation policy across the industry. The piece highlights substantive concerns about how Musk's libertarian approach to speech could reshape a major information platform.

DealBook: ‘Maximum fun’ at Twitter?

Elon Musk, before officially closing his Twitter acquisition, publicly criticized Twitter executives including top lawyer Vijaya Gadde over content moderation decisions, sparking harassment against her and raising questions about his leadership approach. Sorkin documents the stark contrast between Musk's "maximum fun" vision and current/former Twitter leaders' concerns about bullying and accountability. The piece signals early dysfunction and cultural clash that would define Musk's eventual takeover.

DealBook: Elon’s new fight (not Twitter)

Elon Musk quietly joined an amicus brief supporting a former Xerox CFO's petition to the Supreme Court challenging an SEC settlement that imposed lifetime silence on discussing fraud allegations. The case has broader implications for SEC enforcement practices and First Amendment rights, particularly relevant given Musk's own contentious 2018 settlement with the agency over Tesla tweets. Sorkin highlights the irony of Musk fighting for free speech rights in court while simultaneously seeking to acquire Twitter.

DealBook: Is Elon backing away?

Elon Musk tweeted that his $44 billion Twitter acquisition was "temporarily on hold" pending verification of spam account claims, then contradicted himself hours later saying he remained "committed"—sending Twitter shares down 20% and Tesla up 6% in premarket trading. Sorkin analyzes whether Musk can legally exit the deal and whether he's maneuvering for a lower price using material adverse change arguments, drawing parallels to LVMH's Tiffany acquisition strategy.

DealBook: Musk vs. the bots

Elon Musk tweeted that Twitter's deal "cannot move forward" without proof that bots comprise less than 5% of users, signaling he may invoke a Material Adverse Change clause to renegotiate or exit the $54.20/share acquisition. Twitter's stock plummeted 8% to $37.39, well below the agreed price, as Musk appears to be laying legal groundwork to challenge the deal's viability based on bot disclosure disputes.

DealBook: Elon Musk’s new target

S&P Global removed Tesla from its E.S.G. index, prompting Musk to denounce E.S.G. as a "scam" and criticize the inclusion of Exxon Mobil. Sorkin contextualizes this within a broader backlash against E.S.G. from prominent figures across the political spectrum, signaling a potential inflection point in the sustainable investing movement that has dominated Wall Street discourse.

DealBook: The allegations against Musk

Insider reported that a former SpaceX flight attendant accused Elon Musk of sexual misconduct in 2016, with SpaceX settling for $250,000 in 2018. Musk denied the allegations as a "politically motivated hit piece" while simultaneously confirming he still intends to close his Twitter acquisition. The timing creates potential complications for the deal's completion and raises questions about due diligence and disclosure.

DealBook: Don’t mess with Texas

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton launched an investigation into Twitter's bot disclosures on the same day Elon Musk claimed grounds to exit his $44 billion acquisition, citing bot concerns. Sorkin highlights the suspicious timing and Musk's apparent alignment with Republican officials to create legal pressure on Twitter. This represents a significant development in the deteriorating Musk-Twitter deal dynamics with potential regulatory weaponization.

DealBook: Office hours with Musk

Elon Musk will attend a virtual all-hands meeting with Twitter employees as his $44 billion acquisition moves forward amid public disputes over bot counts and deal uncertainty. Sorkin contextualizes this as standard M&A protocol while highlighting the deal's atypical nature—Musk's erratic tweets, hesitation tactics, and complaints about data access have created chaos among advisers and investors. The meeting represents a critical moment in a volatile acquisition that could still unravel.

DealBook: Musk fuels record C.E.O. paydays

Elon Musk's 2018 performance-based compensation plan at Tesla—which has netted him $60 billion in stock awards—is reshaping executive pay across corporate America. Sorkin reports that CEO compensation hit record levels in 2021, with all top 10 earners exceeding $100 million and median CEO pay jumping 27% year-over-year, signaling a structural shift in how boards compensate leadership tied to stock performance rather than salary.

DealBook: Why Musk maybe stuck

Elon Musk formally terminated his $44 billion Twitter acquisition, prompting the company to file suit. Legal experts favor Twitter's position under specific performance doctrine, which can force deal completion when financing is secured. The case hinges on Musk's bot-count complaints and whether courts will compel him to close despite his buyer's remorse.

DealBook: Musk’s damaged goods

Elon Musk's attempt to exit his $44 billion Twitter acquisition deal has left the company significantly weakened, with stock down 33% since the agreement and internal leadership turmoil. Twitter's lawyers declared Musk's withdrawal efforts invalid and threatened Delaware litigation. Sorkin highlights how Musk's bid exposed Twitter's fundamental business problems—years of losses, no competing offers, and deteriorating prospects—making the company worse off regardless of deal outcome.

DealBook: Twitter unloads on Musk

Twitter filed a lawsuit seeking specific performance to compel Elon Musk to complete his $44 billion acquisition after he attempted to back out. Twitter's legal filing argues Musk's withdrawal was motivated by declining Tesla stock prices rather than legitimate concerns about bot accounts, and that the company provided extensive data access. This represents a major escalation in one of the largest M&A disputes in recent history with significant implications for deal enforceability and billionaire accountability.

DealBook: Twitter takes Round 1

A Delaware judge granted Twitter's request to fast-track its lawsuit forcing Elon Musk to complete his $44 billion acquisition, rejecting Musk's bid for more time to investigate bot disclosures. The ruling is a significant procedural victory for Twitter, with the judge signaling skepticism toward Musk's defense and indicating specific performance (forcing the deal) rather than damages may be the remedy. This marks a critical turning point in one of the year's most consequential M&A disputes.

DealBook: New revelations in Musk vs. Twitter

Twitter's former security chief filed a whistleblower complaint alleging the company's spam and hacker defenses were inadequate, potentially strengthening Musk's legal position to exit his $44 billion acquisition. Musk's legal team simultaneously subpoenaed Jack Dorsey, Twitter's co-founder who may have initially encouraged Musk to bid for the company, raising questions about Dorsey's knowledge of Twitter's operational vulnerabilities. This represents a major escalation in the high-stakes legal battle ahead of October trial proceedings.

DealBook: Musk gets a nudge from Mudge

Twitter's former security chief Peiter Zatko ("Mudge") filed whistleblower allegations accusing Twitter of security misrepresentations, potentially bolstering Elon Musk's legal strategy to escape his $44 billion acquisition. While both Musk and Zatko allege Twitter fraud, their claims differ—Musk focuses on spam metrics while Zatko targets security practices—and it's unclear whether a Delaware judge will allow Musk to incorporate these new allegations before the October trial. Sorkin explores how this unexpected third party could reshape the high-stakes legal battle.

DealBook: ‘Slow down’

Delaware court hearing revealed cracks in Musk's case to undo his $44 billion Twitter acquisition, with the judge still deciding whether to allow amendments based on whistleblower claims. New evidence showed Musk texted Morgan Stanley to slow the deal just two weeks after announcing it, citing geopolitical concerns about Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The ruling on whether to include the whistleblower allegations is expected this week and could significantly impact the outcome of the high-stakes litigation.

DealBook: Mr. Mudge goes to Washington

Peiter Zatko, Twitter's former security chief, testified before the Senate Judiciary Committee about data protection failures, with his claims now central to Elon Musk's legal strategy to exit the $44 billion acquisition. Musk's lawyers are leveraging Zatko's allegations as grounds to void the deal, arguing Twitter failed to disclose material information and may have breached an FTC consent decree. The shareholder vote on the sale was also scheduled for the same day, with approval expected.

DealBook: Can Musk atone?

After months of legal battles to escape his $44 billion Twitter acquisition, Elon Musk abruptly reversed course and agreed to buy the platform on original terms, just two weeks before a major Delaware trial. Sorkin reports on what triggered the reversal—potential deposition embarrassment, financing concerns, or undisclosed bad news—and how Twitter is protecting itself through litigation holds and interest penalties. This represents a pivotal moment in one of the largest M&A sagas in recent business history.

DealBook: Getting to yes (again)

Elon Musk unexpectedly put his $44 billion Twitter acquisition back on the table days before a court showdown, but Twitter is now demanding safeguards to prevent another walkaway. Sorkin reports that Musk had quietly sought a 30% discount (later reduced to 10%) and that Twitter is considering court supervision and interest payments to ensure deal closure. The financing contingency remains a critical vulnerability that could allow Musk or his banks to exit again.

DealBook: “Plot twist!”

Delaware court delayed the Twitter-Musk trial by 10 days to October 28, giving Musk tactical breathing room while both sides pursue settlement negotiations. The delay reveals mutual distrust: Twitter doubts Musk will close the deal (his banks haven't received closing instructions), while Musk claims Twitter is getting cold feet. This represents a significant procedural shift in the monthslong acquisition battle with real implications for deal closure.

DealBook: Ye’s test for Twitter

Kanye West (Ye) returned to Twitter after a two-year absence and posted antisemitic content including threats against Jewish people, prompting Twitter to temporarily suspend him. The incident illustrates the tension between Elon Musk's stated commitment to free speech absolutism and the practical moderation challenges facing the newly acquired platform. Sorkin uses the case to examine whether Twitter's new ownership can balance permissiveness with preventing harmful speech.

DealBook: “I will not let you down.”

Tesla's stock tumbled 6% after the company cut its growth forecast, with Musk attempting to reassure investors about returning to trillion-dollar valuations despite recession fears and missed shipping targets. Sorkin highlights the tension between Musk's bullish rhetoric and market concerns about slowing demand, rising rates, and potential share sales to fund the Twitter acquisition. The piece captures a pivotal moment in Tesla's valuation collapse from $1T to $700B in a year.

DealBook: Freed bird?

Elon Musk completed his $44 billion acquisition of Twitter, but immediate concerns emerged about employee compensation vesting on Tuesday and potential mass layoffs before payouts exceed $100 million. Sorkin reports on governance risks including Musk's use of Tesla engineers at Twitter and questions about whether he'll honor compensation pledges to terminated employees, setting up potential litigation.

DealBook: Moving fast and breaking things

Days after acquiring Twitter for $44 billion, Elon Musk launches aggressive cost-cutting measures and operational changes, including plans to charge users for verification and surrounding himself with trusted allies. Sorkin captures the chaotic early days of Musk's ownership, highlighting tensions with employees, advertisers (GM, Ford pausing ads), and the unpredictability of his leadership style. This marks a pivotal moment in social media history with major business and cultural implications.

DealBook: Musk-Twitter, Round Two

Following Twitter's acquisition close, Elon Musk is attempting to avoid paying golden parachutes to fired executives by claiming "cause" terminations, while threatening litigation against Twitter's board and legal counsel. Sorkin reports that multiple lawsuits appear likely over compensation and alleged information withholding, with executives holding strong contractual positions for arbitration claims. The reporting reveals Musk's post-acquisition strategy combines legal aggression with potential cost-avoidance tactics.

DealBook: Musk swings the ax

Elon Musk executed mass layoffs at Twitter on November 4, 2022, with employees learning their fate via email routing (work email = employed, personal email = laid off). Sorkin highlights the chaotic, legally questionable nature of the layoffs and the stark cultural shift from Twitter's previous open-communication ethos, while also noting elimination of employee benefits like monthly rest days.

DealBook: Emptier nest

Hundreds of Twitter employees resigned rather than accept Elon Musk's "hard core" work pledge three weeks into his ownership, with ~75% of polled workers favoring departure. Sorkin examines the immediate operational risks: maintaining critical systems, content moderation, regulatory compliance, and debt servicing with a drastically reduced workforce. The mass exodus represents the most turbulent moment since Musk's takeover and raises serious questions about Twitter's viability.

DealBook: Tesla’s bounceback

Tesla shares surged 7% on strong Q4 earnings (59% profit growth, $21.3B in quarterly sales) and a 33% monthly rally, but Sorkin highlights persistent headwinds including intensifying EV competition, rising rates, China market share losses, and Musk's divided attention with Twitter. The piece captures a classic bull-bear tension: impressive near-term results obscuring longer-term vulnerabilities that could deflate investor sentiment.

DealBook: Mr. Musk goes to Washington

Elon Musk made a surprise visit to Washington to meet with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries, ostensibly to discuss Twitter's political fairness. Sorkin explores the significance of Musk's growing political engagement and his relationship with McCarthy, highlighting how the billionaire is leveraging his platform influence in D.C. The visit signals Musk's strategic pivot toward direct government relations amid ongoing scrutiny of Twitter's content moderation policies.

DealBook: Musk’s “painful” time at Twitter

Elon Musk gave an extensive BBC interview discussing Twitter's turnaround efforts, admitting the $44B acquisition was "painful" but necessary after losing his legal battle to exit. He defended aggressive cost-cutting (reducing staff to 1,500), the $8 blue-check subscription model, and claimed the platform was approaching cash-flow positivity, though he glossed over technical outages and user backlash. Sorkin captures Musk's contradictions and lack of concrete evidence while covering a pivotal moment in Twitter's post-acquisition restructuring.

DealBook: DeSantis and Twitter’s rightward march

Ron DeSantis announced his 2023 presidential campaign on Twitter via conversation with Elon Musk rather than traditional conservative media, signaling Twitter's transformation into a conservative media hub under Musk's ownership. Sorkin analyzes how the platform has systematically embraced the political right through account reinstatements and exclusive content deals, positioning itself as an alternative to Fox News amid conservative media fragmentation. The move reflects both Twitter's strategic pivot and DeSantis's reliance on tech-libertarian rather than traditional Republican business backers.

DealBook: The $460 billion space business

As Musk, Bezos, and Branson race to commercialize space travel and satellite ventures, the legal framework governing property rights, liability, and resource extraction remains largely undefined. Sorkin explores how a 1967 UN treaty prohibiting territorial claims is inadequate for modern commercial space activities projected to reach $1 trillion by 2040. The piece highlights a critical gap between rapid industry growth and regulatory infrastructure.

DealBook: Threads debuts, and advertisers are watching

Meta's new Threads platform launched with 10 million signups in 7 hours, attracting major advertisers like P&G and Ford as a potential alternative to Twitter. Sorkin examines the commercial stakes of Zuckerberg's direct challenge to Musk's platform, noting advertiser concerns about brand safety on Twitter post-acquisition. The piece signals a major shift in social media competition with real business implications for both platforms.

DealBook: A jobs report with big stakes, Musk escalates fight over Threads

Sorkin previews a critical July jobs report that could influence Fed rate decisions, with economists divided on whether strong hiring signals continued inflation pressure or sustainable growth. The newsletter also covers Elon Musk's escalating legal battle with Meta over Threads, Janet Yellen's criticism of Chinese crackdowns on U.S. companies, and BlackRock's Bitcoin trading ambitions. The jobs data carries immediate market significance as it will inform Fed policy direction in a pivotal moment for interest rates and recession risk.

DealBook: Zuckerberg, Musk & A.I.; a Hollywood shutdown looms

Meta and Elon Musk are escalating their artificial intelligence strategies to compete with OpenAI and Google, with Meta pursuing an open-source approach to its LLaMA language model while Musk develops separate A.I. ventures. Sorkin frames this as a high-stakes rivalry between tech titans playing out in the fastest-growing software sector. The newsletter also covers the FTC's renewed challenge to Microsoft-Activision, an impending Hollywood actors' strike, and Republican scrutiny of ESG investing.

DealBook: Meet X, the company formerly known as Twitter

Elon Musk abruptly rebranded Twitter as "X" overnight, replacing the iconic blue bird logo with a stylized X symbol as part of his vision for an "everything app." The move represents a major gamble to reinvent a struggling platform acquired for $44 billion, eliminating one of the internet's most recognizable brands. Sorkin contextualizes Musk's long obsession with the X identity (his former X.com startup) and the strategic risks of abandoning Twitter's established brand equity.

DealBook: It’s A.I. week in Washington

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer convened closed-door meetings with major tech CEOs (Musk, Zuckerberg, Pichai, Nadella, Altman) and other stakeholders to discuss AI regulation frameworks. Sorkin highlights the tension between industry input and concerns that tech companies are gaining outsized influence in early policy discussions. The piece captures a pivotal moment as Congress attempts to regulate transformative technology most lawmakers don't fully understand.

DealBook: The Israel-Gaza war inflames social media

The Israel-Gaza conflict has flooded X (formerly Twitter) with misinformation and violent content, forcing Elon Musk to balance his free-speech ideology against pressure from advertisers, regulators, and hate-speech monitors. The European Commission warned of consequences if moderation doesn't improve, while experts note that Musk's gutting of safety teams has made content policing significantly harder. This represents a critical test of whether X's permissive approach can survive real-world crises.

DealBook: Going viral for all the wrong reasons

Antisemitic content has surged on X and TikTok since October 7, prompting major advertisers like IBM, Apple, and Oracle to pull spending and confront platform executives. Elon Musk's own posts supporting white nationalist conspiracy theories have intensified the backlash, raising questions about CEO Linda Yaccarino's authority and the platforms' ability to moderate hate speech effectively.

DealBook: Elon Musk, unfiltered

Sorkin interviews Elon Musk at the DealBook Summit, where Musk uses profanity to denounce advertisers who fled X over his antisemitic remarks, accusing them of "blackmail." Beyond the headline-grabbing moment, Musk discusses his motivations, AI concerns, and broader business philosophy in a 90-minute conversation that reveals the billionaire's unvarnished views on major controversies affecting his companies.

DealBook: More Musk messiness

Elon Musk's combative remarks at the DealBook Summit—calling advertisers "blackmailers" for pulling spending after his antisemitic post—triggered fresh advertiser defections from X and weighed on Tesla stock despite the Cybertruck launch. Sorkin examines how Musk's self-inflicted reputational damage is now materially affecting his core business valuations and investor confidence.

DealBook: D.E.I. goes quiet

As political backlash against diversity initiatives intensifies—fueled by billionaires like Elon Musk and Bill Ackman—companies are quietly rebranding rather than abandoning D.E.I. programs. Sorkin examines whether corporate diversity efforts have genuinely retreated or simply become less visible, amid legal threats from Supreme Court rulings on affirmative action and shifting political winds since the 2020 racial reckoning.

DealBook: Tesla tumbles

Tesla's stock fell 8% after reporting strong Q4 profits ($7.9B, nearly doubled) but signaling "notably slower" 2024 sales growth amid price wars and competition. Elon Musk urged investors to look past 2024 to a promised "major growth wave" from a low-cost model, while simultaneously demanding a board increase of his stake to 25% or threatening to develop AI products outside Tesla. Wall Street remains skeptical that Tesla can maintain historical growth rates as pricing power erodes.

DealBook: What Elon Musk could lose

A Delaware court ruled that Tesla's 2018 compensation plan awarding Elon Musk over $50 billion in stock options was unfairly approved and voided the arrangement. The decision raises broader questions about corporate governance, board independence, executive compensation practices, and Musk's ability to fund his companies. This landmark ruling has implications far beyond Musk's wealth, affecting how major corporations structure leadership incentives and shareholder protections.

DealBook: Anywhere but Delaware?

SpaceX moved its incorporation from Delaware to Texas, following Musk's earlier relocation of Neuralink to Nevada, as the billionaire escalates his feud with the state after a judge voided his $56 billion Tesla compensation package. Musk is publicly urging other CEOs to abandon Delaware, challenging the state's century-long dominance as America's corporate home base. The real test will be whether Tesla's board and shareholders approve a similar move, which could signal a broader shift in corporate governance.

DealBook: Musk wages war on OpenAI

Elon Musk filed a major lawsuit against OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman, alleging they abandoned the organization's original nonprofit mission to develop AI for public benefit and instead commercialized it for private gain. Sorkin frames this as a philosophical battle over control of transformative AI technology, backed by one of the world's wealthiest individuals, with roots in Musk's $44M+ investment and years of disagreement with Altman. The case highlights fundamental tensions in AI governance and corporate structure during a critical moment for the industry.

DealBook: Musk v. Altman

Elon Musk filed a major lawsuit against OpenAI and Sam Altman, claiming the company abandoned its nonprofit mission for profit, with backing from Microsoft. Sorkin explores the novel legal questions the case raises—including whether Musk can force OpenAI to open-source its technology or sever Microsoft's partnership—and notes the case appears driven by personal philosophical differences rather than clear contractual damages. The case has become a major business story precisely because it lacks legal precedent and unclear victory conditions.

DealBook: Car wars

Renault CEO Luca de Meo is proposing a state-backed "Airbus of EVs" consortium to help European automakers compete against low-cost Chinese rivals like BYD, which recently dethroned Tesla as the world's largest EV maker. Sorkin covers the geopolitical and industrial stakes as Tesla's stock tumbles 30% amid competitive pressure and politicians debate protectionist measures. The proposal highlights a critical moment in the auto industry's transition to electric vehicles and Europe's economic competitiveness.

DealBook: It isn’t just Tesla and Musk

Tesla reported first-quarter deliveries of 387,000 vehicles, missing Wall Street estimates and marking its first year-on-year quarterly decline since 2020, triggering a 30% stock decline this year. Sorkin frames this as evidence that the broader EV sector slowdown is worse than anticipated and extends beyond Tesla's operational challenges. The piece signals a potential inflection point in the electric vehicle transition narrative, with implications for auto industry strategy and government EV policy.

DealBook: Breaking: Tesla’s new showdown on Musk’s pay

Tesla's board announced it will ask shareholders to vote again on Elon Musk's record $47 billion compensation package at the June 13 annual meeting, after a Delaware court voided the 2018 deal in March, finding the approval process "deeply flawed." Sorkin reports this represents a high-stakes governance battle as Tesla faces slumping sales, with shareholders now armed with full court-revealed information about the negotiations. The revote could either validate or reject the richest pay package in U.S. corporate history.

DealBook: What will Musk say tomorrow?

Tesla cut prices across multiple markets and reduced Full Self-Driving costs while recalling nearly 4,000 Cybertrucks ahead of earnings, signaling the company faces its toughest period in years. Musk canceled an India trip citing "very heavy" Tesla obligations, adding to investor concerns about the company's strategic direction. Sorkin frames these moves as evidence shareholders aren't convinced management is addressing fundamental challenges effectively.

DealBook: Who gains from Elon Musk’s trip to China?

Elon Musk traveled to Beijing and met with China's second-highest official, securing regulatory clearance for Tesla's autonomous driving system just days after U.S. Secretary of State Blinken warned China about unfair trade practices. Sorkin highlights the tension between Western geopolitical concerns and corporate imperatives, showing how multinationals like Tesla must maintain China exposure despite broader U.S.-China tensions. The visit underscores Tesla's desperation—facing its worst quarter in two years amid a price war—and Musk's bet-the-company strategy on autonomous driving technology.

DealBook: Elon Musk, special presidential adviser?

Elon Musk and Donald Trump are deepening their relationship, with reports suggesting Musk could become a presidential adviser if Trump wins in 2024. Rather than financial contributions, Musk is leveraging his influence with business leaders to support Trump's campaign, prompting the Biden re-election team to publicly attack the potential alliance. Sorkin frames this as a significant political-business intersection with implications for both the election and future regulatory policy.

DealBook: Paying Elon

Tesla shareholders are voting Thursday on reapproving Elon Musk's $56 billion compensation package after a Delaware judge voided it in January. Sorkin maps out the litigation scenarios that could follow regardless of the vote outcome, analyzing how shareholder approval could reshape Tesla's legal defense and Musk's relationship with the company. This is a pivotal moment in corporate governance with major implications for executive compensation standards.

DealBook: Musk wins. Now what?

Elon Musk secured overwhelming shareholder approval for his $56 billion compensation package (reaffirmed after Delaware court nullification) and Tesla's reincorporation to Texas, with 72% and 84% support respectively excluding Musk's own shares. Sorkin reports that Tesla mobilized retail investors at unprecedented levels while securing crucial backing from major institutional holders like Vanguard and BlackRock, signaling Wall Street's belief that the company's future is inseparable from Musk's leadership. The victory doesn't resolve ongoing Delaware legal challenges but represents a major personal and corporate win with significant implications for CEO power and shareholder dynamics.

DealBook: Vancenomics 101

Donald Trump selected J.D. Vance as his running mate, a significant political move with major business implications. Sorkin examines Vance's deep ties to libertarian Silicon Valley figures like Peter Thiel, Marc Andreessen, and Eric Schmidt, and his populist-yet-tech-friendly economic views. The piece also hints at Elon Musk potentially funding Trump's campaign, signaling a realignment of tech money and influence in American politics.

DealBook: The Musk-Trump agenda?

Sorkin examines how Elon Musk's endorsement and potential financial support for Trump could translate into policy influence, particularly around AI regulation, business oversight, and immigration. The analysis distinguishes between policies that would directly benefit Musk's companies (Tesla, SpaceX, xAI) versus those aligned with his stated ideology, while noting Trump reportedly discussed an advisory role for the billionaire. This matters because Musk's influence could reshape tech regulation and government contracting in a second Trump term.

DealBook: Silicon Valley politicking

Sorkin examines why influential tech figures like Elon Musk, Marc Andreessen, and David Sacks are backing Trump, contrasting their activism with the studied neutrality of Big Tech CEOs. The piece traces the shift from tech's Democratic roots to libertarian skepticism of government regulation and social media content moderation, with personal grievances (Musk's White House exclusion) accelerating the realignment. This reflects broader questions about billionaire political influence and tech's evolving relationship with Washington.

DealBook: Tesla’s bumpy ride

Tesla reported a 45% year-over-year profit decline in Q2 2024, with operating margins compressed to 6.3%, driven by sluggish demand and competitive price wars despite workforce cuts. Sorkin highlights the disconnect between Musk's high-profile political activities and deteriorating financial performance at his flagship company, while noting delays to the robotaxi reveal—Tesla's key growth narrative—underscore investor concerns about execution.

DealBook: Silicon Valley’s political rift

Tech industry titans are publicly splitting along political lines for the 2024 election, with libertarian-leaning figures like Elon Musk and Marc Andreessen backing Trump while traditional Democratic donors like Reid Hoffman and Vinod Khosla oppose him, fracturing longtime business relationships and the industry's historical Democratic consensus. Sorkin highlights how this represents a significant shift in Silicon Valley's political influence and internal dynamics. The piece underscores broader tensions between the tech industry's libertarian and progressive wings that could reshape tech sector politics and policy influence.

DealBook: Musk bucks for voters

Elon Musk's super PAC is offering $1 million daily payouts to petition signers in swing states, a scheme that legal experts say may violate federal election law prohibiting payment for voter registration. Sorkin examines how Musk's pattern of rule-bending—effective in business—now collides with electoral regulations, with campaign-law experts divided on whether the tactic crosses legal lines. The story highlights the intersection of billionaire influence, election integrity, and the ambiguity of existing campaign finance law.

DealBook: Are Elon Musk and Vladimir Putin Talking?

The Wall Street Journal reported that Elon Musk has been in regular contact with Vladimir Putin since late 2022, discussing personal matters, business, and geopolitics—including Putin's request that Musk not activate Starlink over Taiwan. Sorkin highlights the conflict of interest: Musk simultaneously campaigns aggressively for Trump while his companies hold ~$3 billion in federal contracts across 17 agencies, with SpaceX controlling NASA's launch schedule and the Defense Department relying on it for satellite deployment. The reporting raises urgent questions about national security, foreign influence, and whether Musk should have a role in a potential Trump administration.

DealBook: Fed fight

Trump's threats to fire Fed Chair Jay Powell and Elon Musk's endorsement of eroding Fed independence signal a potential constitutional battle over central bank autonomy. Sorkin examines how this challenge to institutional independence could reshape monetary policy and the Fed's role, with Powell potentially turning to courts for protection. The piece highlights how Musk's influence and X are becoming vehicles for policy positions that could reshape government structure.

DealBook: Musk the knife

Trump officially announced Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy will lead a new Department of Government Efficiency tasked with cutting federal spending and regulations. Sorkin examines the significant power this gives Musk while raising conflict-of-interest concerns given his federal contracts, and questions the commission's actual authority and feasibility of Musk's $2 trillion cut target. This represents a major shift in corporate influence over government policy with lasting implications for regulation and federal spending.

DealBook: What can DOGE do?

Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy will lead Trump's new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), tasked with cutting regulations and federal waste. Sorkin's team examines the legal ambiguity around what an outside entity can actually accomplish and how conflict-of-interest laws may constrain Musk's involvement, given his businesses' extensive federal dealings. The piece explores the tension between Trump's boundary-pushing style and conventional government restrictions.

DealBook: The DOGE playbook

Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy outlined their Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) strategy in a WSJ op-ed, planning aggressive federal spending cuts through deregulation, mass layoffs, and budget elimination using recent Supreme Court rulings that weakened agency authority. Sorkin examines how Musk's cost-cutting playbook from Twitter is being applied to government, with implications for federal agencies and policy. The piece also covers a risky antitrust effort against Google and rising Nvidia investor expectations.

DealBook: The Bessent bounce

Scott Bessent's selection as Treasury secretary sparked market gains in stocks, bonds, and dollar weakness, signaling investor approval for a "steady hand" on economic policy. Bessent overcame opposition from Trump allies like Elon Musk who favored more disruptive candidates. The market reaction reflects investor preference for predictability and orthodox economic management over radical change.

DealBook: Musk’s $100 billion hit

A Delaware judge refused to reinstate Elon Musk's $100 billion Tesla compensation package despite shareholder approval in June, ruling the board was too beholden to Musk when designing it. Tesla plans to appeal, but the outcome remains uncertain as Musk gains influence in Trump's incoming administration. The decision highlights ongoing corporate governance tensions at Tesla and potential paths forward for the contentious pay dispute.

DealBook: Musk and DOGE vs. the regulators

Elon Musk is attacking federal agencies (SEC, IRS) that regulate his businesses while heading Trump's DOGE commission to cut government spending, creating potential conflicts of interest. The SEC is simultaneously renewing scrutiny of Musk over unspecified charges while he publicly denounces the agency as "weaponized." Sorkin examines the tension between Musk's regulatory oversight role and his personal business interests facing federal investigation.

DealBook: What Sam Altman told me

Sorkin interviews OpenAI CEO Sam Altman at the DealBook Summit, where Altman addresses Elon Musk's lawsuit, denies Microsoft relationship tensions, and discusses AI progress timelines. The piece provides direct insight into OpenAI's leadership perspective on major competitive and legal threats facing the company as it scales to $157B valuation.

DealBook: Musk’s clearance problem

The Times reports that Elon Musk faces federal scrutiny over his failure to comply with security clearance requirements at SpaceX since at least 2021, including non-disclosure of foreign travel and personal information. The investigation by the Defense Department's Office of Inspector General raises concerns about Musk's public sharing of sensitive information on X, though no classified material disclosure has been alleged. The scrutiny may dissipate once Trump takes office, given Musk's close relationship with the president-elect.

DealBook: Who’s in charge?

As Congress rejected a government funding plan backed by Trump and Musk, the shutdown crisis reveals questions about their control over the Republican Party ahead of Trump's inauguration. Sorkin examines how the political chaos signals potential instability for corporate America and markets over the next four years, with GOP dissidents rebelling over debt concerns despite Trump's backing.

DealBook: TikTok’s Musk option?

As TikTok faces a U.S. ban deadline, Chinese officials are reportedly considering letting Elon Musk invest in or acquire the platform's American operations to satisfy divestment requirements. Sorkin explores the logic of this arrangement—Musk's alignment with Trump on TikTok and his existing Beijing relationships—while noting significant unresolved questions about feasibility and whether discussions have actually occurred. The scenario highlights the intersection of geopolitics, tech regulation, and Trump administration dynamics.

DealBook: D.E.I. on the ropes?

Major corporations including Meta are dismantling D.E.I. initiatives as the Trump administration signals aggressive action against diversity programs, with Elon Musk's DOGE targeting $120B in federal D.E.I. spending. Sorkin examines why corporate leaders who championed these policies are now abandoning them without public defense, revealing the political calculus behind the reversal. This marks a significant shift in corporate governance and social policy with lasting implications for workplace diversity efforts.

DealBook: “Fork in the Road”

The Trump administration offered 2 million federal employees an eight-month severance buyout or face potential furloughs/termination, with signs of Elon Musk's influence on the "deep state" dismantling strategy. Sorkin explores the mechanics of this consequential workforce disruption, its connection to Project 2025, and raises questions about buyout package fairness. This represents a significant policy shift with major implications for government operations and federal employment.

DealBook: On the brink

Major tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico take effect covering ~$1 trillion in annual imports, with global markets reacting sharply downward. Simultaneously, Elon Musk gains access to the Treasury Department's payment system, raising questions about unilateral payment termination authority. Sorkin frames this as a pivotal moment with unclear duration, success metrics, and legal implications that could reshape the global economy.

DealBook: Blocking DeepSeek

The Justice Department temporarily blocked Elon Musk's cost-cutting team from accessing Treasury payment systems, raising questions about presidential spending authority under the 1974 Impoundment Control Act. Meanwhile, lawmakers are moving to ban DeepSeek from U.S. government devices over security concerns, mirroring the TikTok playbook. These developments highlight the collision between Trump's deregulatory agenda and institutional checks on executive power.

DealBook: Corporate law culture war

Elon Musk's public campaign against Delaware's Chancery Court—triggered by the rejection of his Tesla pay package—has transformed corporate law into a political flashpoint, with Dropbox already reincorporating to Texas and Meta considering the same move. What was once an esoteric legal debate has become entangled with broader culture war issues like DEI, threatening Delaware's $1B+ annual corporate franchise revenue that funds 30% of the state budget. Sorkin's angle highlights how Musk weaponized a routine court decision into ideological ammunition, potentially reshaping where America's largest companies incorporate.

DealBook: Musk’s hostile OpenAI bid

Elon Musk launched a surprise $97.4 billion hostile bid to take control of OpenAI, escalating his feud with Sam Altman who rejected it publicly on X. The move complicates OpenAI's pending $40 billion SoftBank fundraising and nonprofit-to-for-profit conversion, raising novel questions about board fiduciary duties in hybrid nonprofit/for-profit structures. Sorkin explores the unprecedented legal and governance complexities, with board chair Bret Taylor (who navigated Musk's Twitter takeover) now caught in the middle.

DealBook: Musk in the Oval Office

Elon Musk made a $97 billion hostile bid for OpenAI that Sorkin argues is legally unviable since OpenAI's board has no fiduciary duty to maximize returns—only to fulfill its nonprofit charter prioritizing humanity's interests. Sorkin reveals Musk's real strategy: using the bid to pressure state attorneys general to block OpenAI's for-profit conversion, though his credibility and hostile history with California and Delaware make success unlikely.

DealBook: Musk digs into the I.R.S.

Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency is attempting to gain access to sensitive IRS and Social Security Administration data through a young software engineer assigned as a senior adviser, raising concerns about concentrated power and potential misuse of taxpayer information. Sorkin highlights the escalating scope of Musk's influence within the federal government and the governance risks this poses. The story underscores tensions between efficiency goals and data privacy/security safeguards.

DealBook: Musk vs. Welch

Sorkin examines whether Elon Musk ranks alongside Jack Welch as one of history's most influential cost-cutting CEOs, exploring their contrasting backgrounds, management styles, and political orientations. The piece uses expert analysis from William D. Cohan to contextualize Musk's aggressive restructuring approach within the broader legacy of transformational corporate leadership. The comparison offers insight into how different eras and business models shape executive influence and legacy.

DealBook: Defying DOGE

Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency ordered federal workers to justify their jobs by midnight or face firing, but Trump-appointed agency heads including Pentagon, FBI, and State Department leadership are resisting with procedural delays. Sorkin analyzes whether Musk's aggressive cost-cutting approach—effective at Twitter—has hit its limits in the slower-moving federal bureaucracy with union protections and institutional resistance.

DealBook: A lesson for Musk?

The American Federation of Teachers, led by Randi Weingarten, is pressuring six major asset managers (BlackRock, Fidelity, State Street, TIAA, T. Rowe Price, Vanguard) to review Tesla's valuation as the stock falls amid weak European sales. Sorkin reports this as an unexpected line of attack on Musk as his political influence grows, though notes the union's selective timing and labor-management tensions. The move signals how Musk's rising Washington profile is drawing coordinated opposition from institutional stakeholders.

DealBook: Tesla, tariffs and a market meltdown

Trump's escalating tariff policies have triggered a sharp market correction (S&P 500 down 10.1% since Feb 19), with investors questioning whether a trade war will derail global growth. Sorkin examines whether corporate concerns—particularly from Elon Musk's Tesla—might pressure the White House to reconsider, while Treasury officials insist volatility is temporary and long-term gains justify the pain. The piece captures a critical moment where market signals typically constrain Trump's policies appear ineffective so far.

DealBook: Drawing back the curtains for Musk

The Times reported that Elon Musk was scheduled to receive a Pentagon briefing on U.S. war plans against China, an extraordinarily unusual arrangement for a private contractor with no official government role. Sorkin examines what this access reveals about Musk's deepening influence within the Trump administration and the potential conflicts of interest given his government contracts. The story highlights the blurred lines between Musk's private business interests and his informal advisory role to the government.

DealBook: Where is the off-ramp?

China escalated its tariff war with the U.S., raising levies to 125% on American goods while Tesla suspended orders for U.S.-imported models, signaling corporate strain from Trump's trade offensive. Sorkin examines the widening gulf between the two nations, the lack of visible off-ramps, and collateral damage to financial markets (dollar weakness, Treasury volatility). The piece captures a critical moment in trade negotiations with real-time corporate responses and market consequences.

DealBook: Tesla sticks by Musk

Tesla's board chair denied reports that the company sought to replace Elon Musk as CEO, with shares rising on the news. However, Sorkin argues the leadership question masks deeper problems: Tesla faces operational challenges, competitive pressures, and questions about whether Musk can devote sufficient time to the company while managing government responsibilities. The denial doesn't resolve fundamental concerns about Tesla's declining sales and profitability.

DealBook: Tesla sticks by Musk

Tesla's board chair denied reports that the company sought to replace Elon Musk as CEO, with shares rising on the news. However, Sorkin argues the leadership question masks deeper problems: Tesla faces operational challenges, competitive pressures, and questions about whether Musk can devote sufficient time to the company while managing government responsibilities. The denial doesn't resolve fundamental concerns about Tesla's declining sales and profitability.

DealBook: Inside OpenAI’s Plan B

OpenAI reversed its plan to become a fully for-profit company, instead converting its for-profit subsidiary into a public benefit corporation controlled by the nonprofit parent—a move that preserves the company's complex dual structure while raising questions about investor returns and AI safety oversight. Sorkin examines whether this "Plan B" actually changes OpenAI's operations meaningfully or merely repackages the same governance tensions. The decision has implications for $64 billion in investor capital, the Elon Musk lawsuit, and how the most consequential AI developer balances profit incentives with safety considerations.

DealBook: Musk vs. the budget bill

Elon Musk is intensifying his public campaign against a Republican budget bill he claims will add trillions to the national debt, with nonpartisan scorekeepers like the CBO confirming it would add $2.4 trillion over a decade. GOP lawmakers worry Musk's attacks could escalate into conflict with Trump and potentially trigger administration retaliation against his businesses. Sorkin explores the high-stakes political dynamics and whether Musk's influence could actually derail major legislation.

DealBook: “CRAZY!”

Elon Musk and President Trump had a dramatic public falling-out involving repeated online clashes and Oval Office confrontations, causing Tesla's market value to plummet over $150 billion. Sorkin analyzes the real-world implications: potential government retaliation against Musk's businesses, possible withholding of SpaceX/Starlink technology, and ripple effects on rivals like Altman and Bezos. The piece raises a critical question about whether this rupture will embolden other CEOs to speak out or reinforce self-censorship due to fear of retribution.

DealBook: “No intention of speaking to him.”

Warner Bros. Discovery announced plans to split into two public companies (streaming/studios and cable channels) to boost valuations, while Trump and Musk's relationship remains frozen with the president warning of "serious consequences" if Musk backs Democratic challengers. Sorkin examines how Trump's regulatory leverage over Musk's companies (Tesla, SpaceX) gives the president significant power despite Musk's $275M campaign donation, with implications for both men's business empires and political influence.

DealBook: OpenAI’s self-driving plan

Sam Altman revealed OpenAI is developing autonomous driving technology using Sora video software and its robotics team, positioning the company as a potential competitor to Tesla in a high-stakes market. The move escalates tensions between Altman and Elon Musk, who co-founded OpenAI but now competes against it through xAI. Sorkin highlights this as a significant but underreported strategic pivot with major implications for the autonomous vehicle industry.

DealBook: “Debt slavery”?

Republicans are pushing toward a Senate vote on a major domestic policy bill central to Trump's agenda, but face mounting obstacles including parliamentary strikes on key provisions, a ballooning price tag, and public criticism from Elon Musk. The GOP is employing accounting maneuvers to avoid deficit impact rules while wavering senators like Lisa Murkowski remain unpredictable votes. Sorkin highlights the tension between Trump's business allies and legislative reality, with the bill's fate genuinely uncertain despite Republican momentum.

DealBook: Musk’s man in the middle

Trump and Musk's truce has collapsed over the Republican tax bill, with Trump threatening to have DOGE investigate Musk's government subsidies. Airbnb co-founder Joe Gebbia, who sits on Tesla's board and leads DOGE, faces a potential conflict of interest if the cost-cutting agency targets his friend's company. Sorkin highlights the governance and ethical complications when personal relationships intersect with government power and corporate fiduciary duties.

DealBook: High noon

President Trump issued a new tariff deadline with letters going out at noon to trading partners, potentially pushing enforcement to August 1 instead of July 9—a tactical delay that may allow companies to rush imports before duties take effect. Sorkin examines whether the threat is credible while also covering Elon Musk's announcement of a new political party and renewed criticism of Trump, analyzing what this means for Musk's investors and business interests. The piece captures a pivotal moment in Trump's trade war strategy and the emerging political tensions between the president and his former ally.

DealBook: Andreessen Horowitz’s latest exit

A16Z announced it's reincorporating from Delaware to Nevada, joining Tesla, Dropbox, and others in what's being called "Dexit." The move signals a potential watershed moment for corporate America's legal home, as one of Silicon Valley's most influential firms openly encourages portfolio companies to follow suit, citing Delaware courts' increased "subjectivity" and hostility to business interests. Sorkin explores whether this marks the end of Delaware's century-long dominance in corporate incorporation.

DealBook: Musk sees “rough” times ahead

Tesla reported its worst quarterly revenue drop in over a decade, prompting Musk to caution investors about "a few rough quarters" ahead despite his pitch about future robotaxis and humanoid robots. The stock is falling in premarket trading as Wall Street grows concerned about slowing EV demand, Chinese competition, and macro headwinds. Sorkin contrasts Tesla's troubles with Alphabet's strong earnings and massive $85B capex commitment, highlighting divergent fortunes in tech.

DealBook: Tesla’s $29 billion do-over

Tesla announced a $29 billion stock grant to Elon Musk as a partial resolution to his long-disputed compensation package, which remains tied up in Delaware courts. Sorkin analyzes the scale of the award against comparable CEO compensation and hints at potential future Tesla investment in Musk's xAI venture. The move signals both Tesla's commitment to retaining Musk and potential constraints on the company's equity incentive plan.

DealBook: Texas takes on Delaware

Texas is aggressively competing with Delaware for corporate incorporations by passing shareholder-hostile laws that shift power to executives and boards. Elon Musk's $29 billion Tesla pay package—initially blocked by Delaware courts—was enabled by Texas law, exemplifying the state's appeal to companies seeking to escape Delaware's shareholder-protective jurisprudence. This "Dexit" trend has major implications for corporate governance, shareholder rights, and which stakeholder group controls American companies.

DealBook: Elon Musk, trillionaire?

Tesla's board proposed a compensation package for Elon Musk potentially worth over $1 trillion tied to aggressive milestones (market cap reaching $2-3T+, tripling earnings), with strict vesting requirements and zero payout if targets miss. Sorkin frames this as the most honest pay-for-performance deal in corporate America, though critics argue Musk already has sufficient incentives as major shareholder. The proposal also includes a shareholder vote on potential xAI investment, raising governance questions about self-dealing.

DealBook: Musk’s trillion-dollar pitch

Sorkin reports on Elon Musk's push for investor approval of his massive Tesla pay package amid declining quarterly profits, while also breaking news that Paramount made acquisition offers to Warner Bros. Discovery including a co-CEO role for David Zaslav. The pieces explore shareholder pressure, deal dynamics, and Musk's raw rhetoric toward investor advisory firms opposing his compensation.

DealBook: OpenAI’s chief goes to Washington

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman appeared before a Senate judiciary subcommittee for his first congressional testimony, facing questions about AI development and regulation as lawmakers from both parties seek to establish guardrails for the rapidly advancing technology. The Biden administration and key figures like Chuck Schumer are actively working on legislation to balance innovation with safety concerns. This marks a pivotal moment as AI moves from tech industry discussion into formal government oversight.

DealBook: Federal Bureau of A.I.?

Sam Altman testified before the Senate on AI regulation in a notably civil hearing where lawmakers and the OpenAI CEO found surprising common ground on creating a new federal AI agency with licensing and safety testing requirements. Sorkin highlights the unusual bipartisan consensus on expanding government oversight of AI development, with even Republicans supporting a regulatory framework similar to nuclear reactor licensing. This signals a potential policy shift toward proactive AI governance before the technology poses systemic risks.

DealBook: Biden’s A.I. guardrails; Dan Snyder’s NFL records

The White House secured voluntary commitments from Microsoft, Google, OpenAI and other AI leaders to build safeguards into their development, marking a potential regulatory win for the Biden administration. Sorkin frames this as an important first step toward consumer protection amid concerns about misinformation, cybercrime, job displacement, and IP theft. The move signals growing government engagement with AI governance as China develops competing guidelines.

DealBook: A.I.’s new order

OpenAI's board fired CEO Sam Altman for lack of candor, but within days he joined Microsoft—OpenAI's largest backer—in a dramatic power struggle that reshapes the AI industry's leadership. Sorkin examines the corporate governance failures and internal divisions at OpenAI that enabled this chaos, with major implications for how the AI sector is governed and who controls its future.

DealBook: A.I.’s governance problem

Sam Altman was ousted as OpenAI CEO by the board over commercialization speed, triggering a staff uprising with 700+ employees demanding the board resign. Sorkin examines how OpenAI's unusual nonprofit-for-profit hybrid structure created governance conflicts that could reshape AI's future. The crisis reveals systemic oversight problems at leading AI companies with major implications for technology development and corporate control.

DealBook: OpenAI goes back to the future

Sam Altman was reinstalled as OpenAI CEO after a dramatic five-day ouster, with the board members who fired him departing and a new interim board led by Bret Taylor taking over. The episode represents a decisive victory for commercialization-focused leadership over safety-focused governance, raising questions about OpenAI's future direction and corporate oversight in AI. The resolution signals potential Microsoft influence in the company's governance and marks a watershed moment in AI industry power dynamics.

DealBook: Lina Khan takes on A.I. deals

The FTC under Lina Khan is scrutinizing major tech companies' strategic investments in AI startups like OpenAI and Anthropic, concerned that concentrated ownership could stifle competition and innovation. Sorkin examines the tension between preventing Big Tech dominance and enabling startups to raise necessary capital, using Microsoft's $13 billion OpenAI stake as a key case study. This represents a significant regulatory shift that could reshape how tech giants compete in the AI race.

DealBook: Opening up OpenAI

The SEC is investigating whether OpenAI CEO Sam Altman misled investors, stemming from his brief ouster and allegations he wasn't "consistently candid" with the board. Federal prosecutors in Manhattan are also inquiring, while an external WilmerHale review nears completion. The scrutiny could complicate Altman's ambitious plans to raise Middle East funding for AI chip production.

DealBook: OpenAI’s plot twist

Ilya Sutskever, OpenAI's chief scientist and co-founder, is departing the company just months after leading the failed board coup against Sam Altman in November 2023. Sutskever's exit signals potential instability at one of AI's most influential companies and raises questions about the direction of its safety research initiatives. His departure comes amid broader tensions over AI governance and the balance between rapid commercialization and responsible development.

DealBook: Safety check at OpenAI

Two key OpenAI safety executives—co-founder Ilya Sutskever and Jan Leike—departed within days, with Leike publicly criticizing the company for deprioritizing safety research in favor of product development. The departures signal internal tension at one of AI's most influential companies and raise questions about whether OpenAI is adequately managing existential risks as it races to build advanced AI systems. Sorkin explores whether these exits could hamper the startup's growth and credibility during a critical period for AI regulation.

DealBook: It’s not ‘Her’

Scarlett Johansson accused OpenAI of using a voice suspiciously similar to hers for ChatGPT's new audio feature without permission, after Sam Altman had previously solicited her for the role. The incident highlights growing trust issues at OpenAI amid concerns from creative industries and former employees about the company's practices and transparency.

DealBook: An A.I. antitrust fight is coming

The FTC and DOJ are escalating antitrust investigations into AI giants Microsoft, Nvidia, and OpenAI, with particular focus on Microsoft's structured deal with Inflection AI designed to circumvent regulatory review. Sorkin highlights how the AI boom's biggest winners are now facing the same antitrust scrutiny that has historically targeted dominant tech platforms. This signals a potential turning point where regulators are proactively addressing market concentration in AI before it becomes entrenched.

DealBook: A.I., the Apple way

Apple unveiled "Apple Intelligence," its long-awaited AI strategy integrating ChatGPT into Siri while maintaining a deliberately conservative approach to AI adoption. Sorkin analyzes whether this measured strategy will drive profits or signal Apple's lag behind competitors, while highlighting the limited nature of the OpenAI partnership despite the headline-grabbing collaboration. The piece examines Apple's hedging strategy in a competitive AI landscape and what it reveals about the company's priorities.

DealBook: OpenAI’s $150 billion target

OpenAI is in advanced talks to raise $6.5 billion at a $150 billion valuation, a dramatic increase from its $100 billion target just days prior, signaling sustained investor confidence in AI leadership despite sector headwinds. Major players including Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, and Thrive Capital are participating. The round would rank among the largest venture funding deals on record and value OpenAI at nearly 2x Intel's market cap.

DealBook: “We are not a normal company”

OpenAI is losing senior executives including its CTO as it pursues a massive fundraising round (potentially $150B valuation) and converts to a for-profit structure to attract outside investors. Altman is also negotiating an equity stake after previously declining one. The departures underscore organizational instability even as OpenAI maintains its AI leadership position.

DealBook: Masa Son + OpenAI?

SoftBank's Vision Fund is investing approximately $500 million into OpenAI's latest funding round, with Thrive Capital leading the effort. The deal represents Masa Son's continued push to establish SoftBank as a major AI player and follows previous discussions between Son and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman about deeper partnerships. While not groundbreaking on its own, the investment signals important consolidation among major tech powerhouses and Son's strategic pivot back to aggressive expansion.

DealBook: A bromance under pressure

Microsoft and OpenAI's strategic partnership—worth tens of billions in investment and critical to both companies' AI strategies—is showing signs of strain, with Microsoft concerned about OpenAI's independence and competitive moves. Sorkin's reporting reveals how Satya Nadella's intervention in last year's Sam Altman ouster underscores the relationship's fragility and importance to the broader AI landscape. Any rupture could reshape the competitive dynamics between Microsoft, Google, and other AI players.

DealBook: Taking tariffs seriously and literally

Sorkin reports from Davos on Trump's tariff threats against Canada, Mexico, and China, analyzing whether they're negotiating tactics or genuine revenue-raising policy, while also covering the major OpenAI-Oracle-SoftBank joint venture announcement that could reshape AI competition and impact Microsoft. The piece examines CEO defensive strategies and suggests Trump may view tariffs as a permanent revenue source rather than temporary leverage.

DealBook: The CoreWeave question

CoreWeave, a major AI infrastructure company backed by Nvidia, significantly downsized its IPO—pricing at $40/share vs. $47-55 range and raising $1.5B at $23B valuation instead of hoped-for $35B. Sorkin frames this as a potential canary-in-the-coal-mine moment for the broader IPO market, questioning whether CoreWeave's struggles reflect company-specific issues or signal deeper economic headwinds (tariffs, inflation) that will chill future AI offerings.

DealBook: “Please be careful”

Robinhood and other financial firms are using cryptocurrency-style "tokens" to offer retail investors exposure to private companies like OpenAI and SpaceX, circumventing U.S. investor-protection rules by selling only to EU investors. Sorkin highlights the regulatory arbitrage and questions whether this represents genuine market democratization or a dangerous end-run around safeguards, with OpenAI publicly rejecting Robinhood's offering. The story matters because it reveals how fintech firms are exploiting jurisdictional gaps and raises broader questions about retail investor protection in an evolving financial landscape.

DealBook: OpenAI exclusive, Tariff bingo, Figma’s pop

DealBook exclusively reports OpenAI has raised $8.3 billion at a $300 billion valuation, ahead of schedule and exceeding targets, with major new investors including Blackstone, TPG, and T. Rowe Price joining the round. The funding accelerates OpenAI's $40 billion annual fundraising goal and signals massive institutional confidence in the AI leader amid intensifying competition. This represents a significant milestone in AI financing and validates Sam Altman's aggressive capital strategy.

DealBook: OpenAI’s billions at stake

OpenAI and Microsoft have reached a tentative agreement to rework their partnership, specifically addressing a clause that would have cut Microsoft's access to advanced AI technology upon achieving artificial general intelligence. This deal is critical for OpenAI's conversion to a for-profit structure, which unlocks billions in additional funding, though investor concerns about AI valuations persist. Sorkin frames this as resolving an "existential crisis" while noting broader implications for tech-media consolidation under the Ellison family.

DealBook: Kimmel consequences

Nvidia is investing $100 billion in OpenAI (valuing it at ~$500B), marking a major strategic shift where the chip giant backs its largest customer. Sorkin highlights the tension: Nvidia needs OpenAI to survive to keep buying chips, but this creates conflicts of interest around chip allocation, competitive fairness, and whether Nvidia will prioritize OpenAI over rivals. The deal exemplifies broader industry cash-burn problems and raises antitrust-adjacent questions about vertical integration in AI.

DealBook: OpenAI’s new big deal

OpenAI announced a major partnership with AMD to use the chipmaker's processors in new data centers, with potential 10% stake acquisition, just two weeks after securing up to $100B from rival Nvidia. The dual deals underscore OpenAI's massive infrastructure ambitions and raise questions about managing competing relationships in the AI chip market. This represents a significant shift in AI infrastructure strategy with major implications for chip competition and OpenAI's capital structure.

DealBook: The circular economy

OpenAI announced a major deal with AMD (following similar agreements with Nvidia, Oracle, and others) to secure computing power, but Sorkin highlights growing concerns about the sustainability of OpenAI's $1+ trillion investment strategy. The deals contain circular financing elements—vendor financing-like structures where chipmakers invest in OpenAI, which then buys their products—raising questions about whether the AI boom is self-sustaining or artificially inflated. With OpenAI burning $2.5B in six months on $4.3B in revenue, the math becomes increasingly scrutinized.

DealBook: Meet the crypto nomads

Major cryptocurrency exchanges like FTX and Binance, founded by North American entrepreneurs, operate offshore to circumvent U.S. regulations restricting derivatives trading. Sorkin reports how these platforms offer extreme leverage (up to 125x) unavailable domestically, attracting billions in U.S. customer capital despite regulatory bans. The piece highlights a regulatory arbitrage strategy that would later prove consequential given FTX's 2022 collapse.

DealBook: Crypto carnage

Binance announced a deal to acquire rival FTX after a bank run triggered by Binance's decision to sell FTX tokens, causing the crypto market to plunge from $3T to $900B in a year. Sam Bankman-Fried's empire faced existential crisis with $1.2B in withdrawals in 24 hours. This represents crypto's "Lehman-esque moment"—a systemic shock with potential contagion risks despite damage being largely contained to crypto markets.

DealBook: FTX in freefall

Binance abandoned its deal to rescue FTX, triggering a catastrophic collapse of the crypto exchange with an estimated $8 billion funding shortfall. Founder Sam Bankman-Fried faces potential legal consequences as reports emerge of misuse of customer funds to prop up his trading affiliate Alameda Research. The implosion raises critical questions about investor due diligence, regulatory oversight, and the stability of the crypto industry.

DealBook: FTX freeze-out

Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX is collapsing as regulators freeze assets and wind down operations across multiple jurisdictions, while the founder desperately seeks $8 billion in rescue funding. Binance's Changpeng Zhao warned the crypto industry faces 2008-scale contagion effects. The scandal raises urgent questions about venture capital exposure and systemic risk across the crypto ecosystem.

DealBook: Bank man

Sam Bankman-Fried's sudden resignation and FTX's bankruptcy filing represents a watershed moment for cryptocurrency, with Sorkin and guest columnist Roger Lowenstein arguing the collapse vindicates the need for central bank oversight. Bankman-Fried, once hailed as crypto's white knight for attempting rescues of failing firms, is exposed as emblematic of the dangers of unregulated decentralized finance. The piece uses the FTX implosion to make a broader case about financial system stability and regulatory necessity.

DealBook: FTX, and the FOMO “fiasco”

Andrew Ross Sorkin examines the fallout from FTX's multibillion-dollar collapse under founder Sam Bankman-Fried, comparing it to major financial scandals like Enron and Lehman Brothers. Sorkin analyzes whether the disaster stemmed from regulatory gaps, lack of due diligence by investors, or outright fraud, while questioning what lessons Wall Street and Silicon Valley should draw from how they turbocharged Bankman-Fried's rise. The piece explores whether crypto itself faces existential threat or if this becomes merely a cautionary tale.

DealBook: Crypto contagion, and candor

FTX's collapse is triggering cascading losses across the financial system, with major investors like Temasek, Sequoia, and SoftBank writing down their stakes to zero. Sam Bankman-Fried made shocking admissions to Vox about billions in losses due to poor accounting, while contagion fears mount as Genesis Global Capital faces liquidity crises and exposure to FTX. Sorkin highlights how a single crypto exchange failure is destabilizing hedge funds, venture capital, and traditional finance institutions globally.

DealBook: The FTX Mess

Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX empire collapsed spectacularly, with the bankruptcy unwinding expected to last years. The fallout extends across crypto industry investors, political recipients of SBF's donations, and broader market confidence, with over 100 affiliated companies filing for bankruptcy and potentially a million creditors affected. John Ray, who handled Enron's bankruptcy, called FTX's financial chaos unprecedented in his experience.

DealBook: Crypto crackdown

The SEC charged Terraform Labs founder Do Kwon with orchestrating a multibillion-dollar fraud involving a failed stablecoin scheme, while a judge signaled Sam Bankman-Fried could face jail time and stricter bail conditions. Sorkin frames this as part of an escalating legal clampdown on crypto's most prominent fraudsters, highlighting enforcement momentum and market volatility implications. The story captures a pivotal moment in crypto regulation with major consequences for the industry's credibility.

DealBook: FTX’s mega miss

FTX's bankruptcy estate sold warrants to purchase Sui tokens shortly before the token's May 3 trading debut, missing out on over $1 billion in value that materialized within days. Restructuring chief John Ray III, known for recovering billions in past mega-bankruptcies, faces scrutiny over the premature asset liquidation. The incident highlights the complexity and potential missteps in unwinding FTX's sprawling crypto portfolio and raises questions about creditor recovery optimization.

DealBook: Bankman-Fried on trial

Sam Bankman-Fried's fraud trial for the $8 billion FTX collapse begins with jury selection, marking a watershed moment for crypto accountability. Sorkin frames this alongside major Supreme Court cases affecting business regulation, positioning the week as pivotal for corporate America's legal landscape. The trial will expose systemic failures in crypto culture and test whether high-profile executives face real consequences for fraud.

DealBook: FTX’s “back door”

Sam Bankman-Fried's fraud trial began with testimony as new WSJ reporting revealed employees discovered a secret "back door" in May 2022 allowing Alameda Research to withdraw customer funds and carry a $65 billion negative balance—months before FTX's collapse. Despite employee concerns and flagging to senior leadership, the feature was never removed, raising questions about what executives knew. This evidence goes to the heart of prosecutors' fraud case that Bankman-Fried deliberately stole billions from customers.

DealBook: Bankman-Fried’s risky defense gets tested

Sam Bankman-Fried returned to the stand in his fraud trial facing intense cross-examination that exposed inconsistencies in his defense, including admissions about his larger role at Alameda Research. Prosecutors used his own public statements against him, and his evasive testimony ("I'm not sure") drew judicial rebukes, potentially damaging his credibility with jurors. The trial represents one of crypto's biggest legal reckoning with billions in losses at stake.

DealBook: Sam Bankman-Fried, guilty on all counts

Sam Bankman-Fried was convicted on all counts in his fraud trial, completing a dramatic fall from crypto wunderkind to felon. Jurors deliberated just 4.5 hours, finding him guilty of stealing billions in customer funds from FTX. The verdict marks a watershed moment for the cryptocurrency industry and raises questions about its future credibility.

DealBook: The sentencing of SBF

Sam Bankman-Fried was convicted of seven counts of fraud and conspiracy for stealing billions from FTX customers and investors. Judge Lewis Kaplan will determine sentencing in March, with a maximum of 100+ years possible, raising fundamental questions about appropriate punishment for white-collar crimes. Sorkin contextualizes the case within historical precedent (Michael Milken) and broader debates about sentencing disparities.

DealBook: Was SBF (sort of) right?

FTX lawyers announced the company expects to repay creditors in full, a stunning reversal from earlier projections of massive losses. Sorkin explores the cascading implications: clawback lawsuits may become harder to pursue, SBF's sentencing and appeal could be affected, and the irony that the convicted founder's original claims about repayment may have been vindicated. This fundamentally reshapes the bankruptcy's trajectory and raises questions about asset recovery strategy.

DealBook: Margin call

Credit Suisse and Nomura warned of massive losses from Archegos Capital Management's forced liquidation of $20 billion in stock positions, triggering a major market shock. Archegos, which manages Bill Hwang's personal fortune, had used opaque swap contracts and leverage to build concentrated bets in media and Chinese tech stocks without banks knowing about overlapping exposures. The collapse exposes systemic risks in derivatives markets and inadequate coordination among lenders, likely to draw regulatory scrutiny.

DealBook: Swiss mess

Credit Suisse shares plummeted 8% amid weekend rumors about liquidity troubles, with credit default swaps hitting record highs despite CEO reassurances and internal talking points. Sorkin examines the bank's credibility problem stemming from massive losses at Archegos ($5.5B) and Greensill ($1.7B), plus weakness in core business lines. The piece highlights how past risk management failures have eroded investor confidence in the Swiss lender's stability.

DealBook: Carving up Credit Suisse

Credit Suisse announced a major strategic overhaul after months of review, breaking up its investment bank and creating two new entities: CS First Boston (led by Michael Klein) to house capital markets and M&A advisory, and a "bad bank" to hold risky assets for eventual sale or wind-down. This represents a dramatic retreat from high finance for a systemically important bank that has endured a decade of crises including Archegos and Greensill losses, signaling potential instability in global banking.

DealBook: A feared bank run rocks the markets

Silicon Valley Bank, a major tech lender, triggered a banking crisis after disclosing $1.8B in losses from bond sales and announcing emergency fundraising, sparking a 60% stock plunge and contagion fears across global markets. Sorkin traces the root cause to Fed rate hikes eroding bond values held by regional banks. The crisis threatens smaller lenders' survival and rattled markets from Tokyo to London, marking the sector's worst day in three years.

DealBook: Why did Silicon Valley Bank collapse?

Silicon Valley Bank failed due to a classic bank run triggered by management's ill-timed bond sale announcement, which paradoxically spooked depositors despite being meant to reassure them. The bank wasn't insolvent before the run but faced rising interest rates that eroded its bond portfolio value; management's decision to sell $21B in bonds at a $1.8B loss and raise capital backfired spectacularly with its VC client base. Sorkin provides real-time analysis of a major financial crisis moment with original reporting on the tactical errors that accelerated the collapse.

DealBook: Too big to fail 2.0

Federal regulators announced the most comprehensive banking system backstop since 2008 following SVB's collapse, guaranteeing all deposits and shaking global markets. Sorkin argues this represents "Too Big to Fail 2.0"—where no bank is now too small to fail—and highlights the irony of libertarian-leaning VCs receiving government rescue after lobbying against regulation. The decision raises fundamental questions about whether banking can function as a true business once fully government-backed.

Your Tuesday Briefing: A U.S. banking crisis

Silicon Valley Bank collapsed in the largest U.S. bank failure since 2008, triggering a broader banking crisis as two other banks also closed within days. President Biden and the Federal Reserve launched emergency measures including deposit guarantees and a new lending program to prevent systemic contagion. Sorkin characterized the Fed's response as "the most sweeping backstop for the U.S. banking system since the 2008 crisis," highlighting the existential risk of bank runs becoming self-fulfilling prophecies.

DealBook: Risk on?

Regional bank stocks surged in premarket trading after the federal government's deposit guarantee backstop appeared to stabilize markets following SVB and Signature Bank collapses. Sorkin examines whether the $500B market value loss has bottomed and analyzes lingering sector risks despite official reassurances. The piece captures a critical inflection point in the 2023 banking crisis with reporting on both market reaction and policy effectiveness.

DealBook: Goldman’s S.V.B. fee

Goldman Sachs simultaneously advised Silicon Valley Bank on a rescue while buying $21.4 billion of its debt, netting over $100 million in fees from a transaction that ultimately failed to save the bank. Sorkin's reporting reveals potential conflicts of interest in Goldman's dual advisory and principal roles, questioning whether the bank operated at arm's length and whether its incentives were properly aligned with the client's survival.

DealBook: Bank rescues go global

Credit Suisse secured a $54 billion liquidity backstop from the Swiss National Bank after its stock hit record lows, temporarily halting banking sector contagion fears following SVB's collapse. Sorkin examines whether central banks will adjust monetary policy to prevent further financial instability and what the global coordination signals about systemic risk. This marks a critical moment in the 2023 banking crisis with major implications for financial regulation and central bank strategy.

DealBook: Are America’s banks safe yet?

Major U.S. banks injected $30 billion into First Republic Bank to prevent collapse following SVB's implosion, with Treasury Secretary Yellen orchestrating the private-sector rescue. Sorkin examines how the bailout came together and whether it will actually restore confidence in the financial system, revealing underlying fragility despite the show of force. This captures a critical moment in the 2023 banking crisis with original reporting on behind-the-scenes coordination.

DealBook: What now?

Following SVB's collapse, Sorkin examines two policy proposals to prevent future banking crises: removing FDIC deposit insurance caps and creating a new low-risk bank category. He argues the $250K insurance limit is already effectively obsolete in practice, citing how regulators invoke "systemic risk exceptions" to protect all deposits during crises, and notes Rep. Ro Khanna plans to introduce legislation to raise or eliminate the cap.

DealBook: After Credit Suisse, who’s next?

Following UBS's emergency acquisition of Credit Suisse over the weekend and SVB's collapse two weeks prior, Sorkin examines whether more bank failures are imminent as markets panic globally. He argues regulators must force troubled institutions into deals quickly—before problems metastasize like they did pre-Lehman in 2008—warning that embedded losses in regional banks' balance sheets pose systemic risk. The piece captures a critical moment of financial instability with prescient analysis of contagion dynamics.

DealBook: The Fed’s conundrum

The Fed faces a historic dilemma ahead of its interest rate decision: whether to continue fighting inflation or pause to prevent further bank failures following SVB's collapse. With nearly 190 lenders potentially at risk and First Republic in freefall, Powell must navigate competing pressures from inflation concerns, banking stability, and influential voices like Ackman and Musk calling for rate cuts. This decision will define the Fed's crisis management and have immediate ripple effects across the financial system.

DealBook: The disappearing investment bank

Following UBS's emergency acquisition of Credit Suisse, the Swiss lender's investment banking division—which had been slated for a spinout under dealmaker Michael Klein—now faces dissolution as UBS shows little interest in preserving it. Sorkin examines how a once-elite advisory shop is being dismantled, with the Swiss government blocking promised banker payouts and UBS reconsidering the Klein deal. This signals a major structural shift in the investment banking landscape amid the banking sector's broader turmoil.

DealBook: What will Jay Powell and Janet Yellen do next?

Fed raised rates despite banking turmoil while regulators signaled mixed messages on deposit insurance and banking oversight, creating investor uncertainty. Yellen's apparent backtracking on broader deposit coverage spooked markets and raised questions about the government's banking crisis response strategy. The lack of clarity on regulatory direction sent smaller bank stocks tumbling as markets grappled with conflicting signals from Powell and Yellen.

DealBook: Banking’s go-to crisis adviser

Rodge Cohen of Sullivan & Cromwell is the behind-the-scenes legal architect managing the 2023 banking crisis, having played similar roles in every major financial upheaval since the 1980s. Sorkin profiles the soft-spoken lawyer's outsized influence on SVB and First Republic rescues, positioning him as the indispensable fixer in high-stakes banking emergencies. The piece offers insight into how crisis resolution actually works at the highest levels of finance and government.

DealBook: Goodbye, (most of) Silicon Valley Bank

First Citizens agreed to acquire most of Silicon Valley Bank's operations following the lender's collapse, with the FDIC absorbing a ~$20 billion loss. The deal marks a critical turning point in the banking crisis that erupted weeks earlier, though questions remain about whether market stability has truly returned. Sorkin examines whether this resolution can restore confidence in the broader midsize banking sector.

DealBook: Mismanagement, or missed warning signs?

Federal regulators testify before Congress on how Silicon Valley Bank's failures went undetected, with executives blaming management missteps while lawmakers probe regulatory oversight gaps. Sorkin frames the core tension: was SVB's collapse due to executive negligence or regulator complacency? The piece signals major accountability hearings with lasting implications for banking supervision.

DealBook: Back to the future for UBS

UBS announced it is reinstating Sergio Ermotti as CEO effective April 5 to oversee the integration of its $3.2 billion acquisition of Credit Suisse, replacing Ralph Hamers. The board determined Ermotti's prior experience reviving UBS post-2008 made him better suited to navigate this "massive integration exercise." The move signals how complex and risky UBS views the takeover, which has already faced investor and political backlash.

DealBook: Too small to fail

Following Silicon Valley Bank's failure, depositors fled to megabanks, raising questions about whether regional banks are necessary. Sorkin argues that regional banks play a crucial economic role by serving local communities and small businesses that large national banks overlook, while also examining why credit rating agencies failed to downgrade SVB in time. The piece explores the tension between banking consolidation and the historical American preference for community-focused lending.

DealBook: The jobs-recession conundrum

With the March jobs report due Friday, investors face a paradox: strong employment data (expected ~240K jobs added) could force the Fed to raise rates again despite banking sector stress, while 11 consecutive beats on jobs expectations have markets on edge. Sorkin examines how a resilient labor market complicates the Fed's inflation-fighting strategy even as tech/finance layoffs mount and commercial real estate looms as a potential crisis.

DealBook: What next for banks?

Following SVB and Signature Bank collapses, Sorkin examines whether the banking crisis is truly contained despite market rebounds. He identifies three critical risk areas: reduced lending from regional banks threatening GDP growth, venture capital/startup funding pressures, and potential contagion to other sectors. Jamie Dimon's warning that "repercussions will last for years" frames the analysis of upcoming earnings reports from major lenders.

DealBook: Why First Republic hasn’t done a deal

First Republic faces a $25 billion balance sheet hole with no imminent rescue deal despite a $30 billion lifeline from major banks, as its stock has collapsed 90% in six months. Sorkin reports that potential solutions involving government, banks, and private equity have conflicting priorities and timelines. The bank's quarterly earnings today will reveal deposit stability and loss estimates that could determine its fate.

DealBook: All eyes on First Republic

First Republic Bank faces potential failure after disastrous Q1 results, with the federal government weighing whether to orchestrate a rescue or seize the lender outright. Sorkin reports that time is running out and a disorderly collapse could trigger further financial market chaos. The situation underscores that the banking crisis from March 2023 remains unresolved, with major questions about uninsured deposits and government intervention still unanswered.

DealBook: Jamie Dimon to the rescue, again

Regulators seized First Republic Bank overnight and sold it to JPMorgan Chase in an emergency auction, marking the second-largest U.S. bank failure since 2008. JPMorgan assumed $173 billion in loans, $30 billion in securities, and $92 billion in deposits, while the FDIC took a $13 billion hit. Sorkin frames this as a critical resolution to the regional banking crisis triggered by SVB's March collapse, with JPMorgan's acquisition preventing a costlier government rescue.

DealBook: Is the banking crisis really over?

JPMorgan Chase acquired First Republic Bank, with CEO Jamie Dimon declaring the acute banking crisis phase over, but Wall Street remains skeptical about systemic risks ahead. Sorkin highlights the disconnect between official reassurances and market anxiety about potential new regulations, constrained lending, and regional banks' exposure to commercial real estate and consumer credit. The piece underscores that while First Republic's collapse may have been idiosyncratic, smaller lenders' concentrated exposure to vulnerable sectors could trigger broader economic damage.

DealBook: Decision day

The Federal Reserve faces pressure to decide on interest rate hikes while regional banks face a severe crisis following SVB's collapse and First Republic's sale to JPMorgan. Short sellers are targeting vulnerable regional lenders, threatening to trigger a broader credit crunch that could push the economy into recession. Sorkin examines the tension between fighting inflation and preventing financial system instability.

DealBook: No Fed rebound for PacWest

PacWest Bancorp's stock crashed 35% in premarket trading as the regional bank confirmed it was exploring a sale, contradicting Fed Chair Powell's claim that banking troubles were over. The collapse signals the banking crisis is far from resolved, with multiple regional lenders facing severe pressure and questions about whether private solutions or regulatory intervention will be needed.

DealBook: A pivotal jobs report

Sorkin previews the May jobs report as a critical indicator of whether the U.S. labor market remains strong enough to avoid recession, despite Fed rate hikes and banking turmoil. Economists forecast 180,000 jobs added—well below Q1 averages—but have repeatedly underestimated labor market strength. The data could influence Fed policy on future rate increases and inflation control.

DealBook: The new lenders

The regional banking crisis triggered by three federal bank seizures is creating a lending vacuum that private credit firms like Apollo, Ares, and Blackstone are rushing to fill. With traditional banks constrained by legacy loans and new capital requirements, nonbank lenders see a major opportunity to expand their already sixfold-grown industry from $850 billion since 2013. Sorkin examines how financial system stress is reshaping credit markets and shifting power to alternative lenders.

DealBook: A looming market risk?

Following the regional banking crisis, regulators are flagging systemic risks to clearinghouses—the critical market infrastructure that settles trades and holds billions in bank deposits. A bank failure could leave clearinghouses without cash access, triggering widespread market instability. Sorkin reports on CFTC's push for a simple fix: allowing more clearinghouses direct Fed deposit access to mitigate contagion risk.

DealBook: Targeting the short sellers

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon called for SEC investigations into "unscrupulous" short-seller behavior amid the regional banking crisis, as traders profited over $7.5 billion betting against smaller lenders in 2023. Dimon's intervention, following JPMorgan's acquisition of First Republic, reflects broader banking industry pressure on regulators to scrutinize potential market manipulation through coordinated short selling and social media campaigns. The issue sits at the intersection of financial stability concerns and market regulation debates.

DealBook: UBS’s $29 billion “badwill” bonus

UBS reported a record $29 billion quarterly profit from acquiring Credit Suisse, but this massive figure is almost entirely an accounting artifact from "badwill"—the gap between purchase price and actual asset value. Sorkin explains the accounting mechanics behind this phenomenon and notes that UBS's real underlying profit was just $1.1 billion, highlighting the substantial integration challenges ahead for the largest bank takeover since 2008.

DealBook: Real-estate reality check

New York Community Bancorp's credit downgrade to junk status triggered a regional banking selloff, with the KBW index falling 12% as investors worry about commercial real estate exposure. Sorkin highlights how N.Y.C.B.'s acquisition of Signature Bank assets during last year's crisis backfired, pushing it into stricter regulatory oversight. The story matters because it signals potential systemic risk as a key banking support mechanism expires and office vacancy rates remain elevated.

DealBook: Run risk

Peter Coy examines how little has changed since Silicon Valley Bank's March 2023 collapse despite initial calls for reform. While regulators tightened supervision temporarily, no major new laws or regulations emerged, and the fundamental problem of "runnable liabilities" (uninsured deposits that can be withdrawn suddenly) persists in the financial system. The piece argues that systemic vulnerabilities remain despite the Fed's claims that current risk is low.

DealBook: The hedge fund that dumped Trump

Saba Capital's Boaz Weinstein sold his firm's entire unrestricted stake in Digital World Acquisition Corp., a SPAC backing Trump's media venture, citing ethical concerns despite missing a 350% surge in shares. The move raises questions about whether other institutional investors will follow suit or prioritize profits over values in the Trump-linked deal. Sorkin explores the tension between financial returns and moral positioning in SPAC investing.

DealBook: The fallout from Trump’s indictment

Donald Trump becomes the first former U.S. president to face criminal charges, indicted by a Manhattan grand jury over hush money payments to an adult film actress. Sorkin covers the historic political moment, Trump's expected surrender and arraignment, and the broader implications for the 2024 race and governance. The newsletter also addresses Biden's new banking regulations and M&A market slowdown amid the indictment fallout.

DealBook: Trump enters court on a high

Trump's historic criminal arraignment on hush-money charges is paradoxically boosting his political and business fortunes, with record fundraising ($7M claimed) and surging stock prices for his SPAC merger vehicle. Sorkin examines how Trump has weaponized the indictment as a platform while noting that major GOP donors remain distant, creating uncertainty about his broader financial backing.

DealBook: Trump indicted again; a fragile bull market

Donald Trump faces a second indictment in two months, this time on seven federal charges related to mishandling classified documents—a historically significant legal development with major implications for the 2024 presidential race. Sorkin contextualizes the indictment's "legal gravity and political peril" alongside Trump's mounting legal troubles and immediate fund-raising response. The newsletter also covers market fragility and Apple's rebranding of VR as "spatial computing," touching on crypto's public perception challenges.

DealBook: The Zelensky-Trump divide at Davos

Ukrainian President Zelensky addressed concerns at Davos about potential Trump re-election and reduced U.S. support for Ukraine, dismissing Trump's claims about containing Putin while expressing underlying anxiety about America's commitment. Sorkin moderated a Q&A where Zelensky warned that losing Ukraine would mean Europe loses "the most useful and most strong army in Europe," highlighting the geopolitical stakes of the 2024 U.S. election. The piece captures a pivotal moment where global business leaders grapple with how Trump's foreign policy could reshape international alliances and military support.

DealBook: Davos bets on Trump

Global business executives at the World Economic Forum privately predict Donald Trump will win the 2024 presidential election, though many express worry about the outcome. Sorkin reports that while public statements frame it as "geopolitical risk," private conversations reveal resignation to a Trump presidency, with JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon notably defending Trump's positions on NATO, immigration, and China. The reporting captures the elite business establishment's shifting expectations and hedging strategies ahead of a potential Trump return.

DealBook: Business braces for a Trump nomination

Donald Trump decisively won New Hampshire's Republican primary, making him the likely GOP nominee and increasing his general election prospects. Sorkin reports on how donors and the business community are recalibrating their political strategies, with some Haley backers abandoning ship and prominent figures like Steve Wynn and John Paulson appearing at Trump's victory party. The piece captures a pivotal moment in the 2024 election cycle with implications for corporate political alignment and policy expectations.

DealBook: The business stakes of a Biden-Trump rematch

With Trump's New Hampshire primary win, business leaders are grappling with uncertainty about a potential Biden-Trump rematch and its implications for deal flow, regulation, and healthcare policy. Sorkin captures the anxiety across sectors—from private equity to fintech to healthcare—showing how executives are hedging their bets on election outcomes. The piece illustrates how political uncertainty creates real business consequences, from M&A hesitation to regulatory risk assessment.

DealBook: Could Trump save TikTok?

Donald Trump reversed his previous position opposing TikTok, now arguing against a House-passed bill that would force ByteDance to divest or face a U.S. ban by September 30. Trump's shift—motivated partly by concerns that a ban would strengthen Meta—has already weakened Republican support, with Senator Lindsey Graham expressing doubt about the legislation. This represents a significant political development that could reshape the outcome of major national security legislation affecting a major social platform.

DealBook: Would Trump 2.0 control the Fed?

The Wall Street Journal reports that Trump allies are exploring ways to undermine Federal Reserve independence if he wins re-election, potentially including the power to remove Fed Chair Jay Powell before his term ends. Sorkin examines whether such a dramatic shift in U.S. monetary policy is legally feasible and whether Trump's Wall Street backers would actually support it. The story raises fundamental questions about central bank autonomy and political control over interest rates.

DealBook: Stockflation

Stock markets surged globally after a better-than-expected CPI report showed core inflation at 3.6%, the lowest in three years, sparking expectations for Fed rate cuts starting in September. Sorkin examines the nuanced inflation picture—encouraging grocery and airfare trends offset by persistent housing inflation—while noting the market's euphoria may be premature given inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target. The piece also signals a shift in Wall Street's political calculus as business leaders reconsider Trump, adding substantive context to market movements and policy implications.

DealBook: Conviction in Trump

Donald Trump became the first former U.S. president convicted of a felony, yet major Republican donors and Silicon Valley figures are doubling down on financial support for his re-election campaign. Sorkin documents how Wall Street and tech money is flowing to Trump despite the historic guilty verdict, with prominent figures like Bill Ackman and Sequoia Capital's Shaun Maguire backing him. The piece reveals the disconnect between legal consequences and political/financial momentum in Trump's orbit.

DealBook: What will Biden donors do?

Following Biden's poor debate performance, Democratic donors and Wall Street are reassessing the 2024 race, with market expectations shifting toward a Trump victory. Sorkin reports on donor sentiment, polling showing 72% doubt Biden's fitness, and analyst forecasts of slower growth and higher inflation under Trump policies including tariffs and mass deportation. The piece captures a pivotal political-economic moment as financial markets begin pricing in policy uncertainty.

DealBook: The Fed under Trump 2.0

Sorkin examines the likelihood of Trump firing Fed Chair Jay Powell in a potential second administration, noting Trump's conflicted history with Powell over interest rate policy. While Trump recently told Bloomberg he wouldn't fire Powell, he added conditional language suggesting he believes he has the power to do so, despite legal ambiguity. The piece explores a key uncertainty for markets: whether Trump would attempt to remove Powell given current higher rates and his past criticism of the Fed's policies.

DealBook: Trump’s Fed wish list

Donald Trump made his clearest statement yet that he wants presidential influence over the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, directly challenging the central bank's political independence—a foundational principle for decades. Sorkin highlights how this breaks longstanding precedent and could destabilize investor confidence in the Fed's autonomy. The reporting captures Trump's preference for low rates and weak dollar, framed through his confidence in his own financial instincts over Fed expertise.

DealBook: How Google could be broken up

The DOJ is reportedly considering forcing Google to divest Chrome or Android following Judge Mehta's ruling that the company illegally monopolized search. This represents a potential watershed moment in Big Tech antitrust enforcement with major implications for Apple, Amazon, and Meta's own regulatory battles. Sorkin contextualizes the remedy discussions ahead of September 4 deadline for proposed solutions.

DealBook: Trumponomics 2.0

Donald Trump outlined his economic platform at the Economic Club of New York, centering on higher tariffs, lower corporate taxes, and closer alignment with Elon Musk, while drawing contrasts with Kamala Harris's approach. Sorkin analyzes how Trump's proposals raise questions about implementation and governance, positioning them as debate fodder ahead of his matchup with Harris. The piece examines the political economy divide between the candidates as the jobs report looms.

DealBook: Google’s next antitrust fight

The Justice Department begins a landmark antitrust trial against Google over its $200 billion advertising business, which represents three-quarters of the company's revenue. This case follows recent judicial defeats on app store and search monopoly issues, potentially threatening Google's core business model and adding pressure for Big Tech breakups. The trial's outcome could reshape digital advertising and have broader implications for tech regulation.

DealBook: Breaking up Google is hard to do

Following its August antitrust victory against Google, the Justice Department is considering "structural remedies" including a potential breakup of the search giant to address its illegal monopoly. Sorkin examines the legal risks and practical challenges of pursuing such a dramatic remedy, alongside less drastic alternatives like data-sharing requirements and behavioral restrictions. This represents a pivotal moment in tech regulation with major implications for how Washington polices dominant platforms.

DealBook: “The most beautiful word”

Trump proposed raising tariffs to 50% (up from 10%) to reshore manufacturing, calling tariffs "the most beautiful word in the dictionary," while Harris outlined competing economic plans. Economists warn such tariffs combined with tax cuts could trigger $15 trillion in costs and recession, but Trump dismissed concerns. The article provides substantive detail on both candidates' economic platforms ahead of the election.

DealBook: Election challenge

Doug Emhoff urged corporate lawyers to pressure their clients to publicly defend election integrity, but executives are reluctant to repeat 2020 statements due to political polarization and Trump's threats of retaliation. Sorkin explores how corporate America's retreat from political speech reflects the heightened stakes and risks of taking sides in a deeply divided election.

DealBook: Hedging Trump 2.0

Corporate leaders are quietly reaching out to Trump and preparing contingency plans ahead of the election, signaling they may be hedging bets on a Trump victory. Tech giants like Apple, Google, Amazon, and Meta are reportedly rebuilding relationships with the former president, while business councils discuss defensive strategies. Sorkin examines what this corporate positioning reveals about election expectations and the transactional nature of business-politics relationships.

DealBook: The other Trump trade

As Trump's election prospects improve, Sorkin examines what a potential second term means for global trade policy, focusing on Robert Lighthizer's likely influential role as a protectionist architect. The piece analyzes Trump's stated plans for reciprocal tariffs and potential economic consequences, offering investors and policymakers a roadmap for understanding his trade agenda.

DealBook: R.F.K. Jr., “health czar”?

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a vaccine skeptic, could wield significant influence over health, food, and medicine policy in a potential Trump administration, with Trump publicly stating he'd "let him go wild" on these issues. Sorkin examines how corporate America is preparing for Kennedy's potential regulatory power, particularly in pharma, food, and agriculture sectors. The piece signals a major policy shift that could reshape multiple industries and regulatory frameworks.

DealBook: Trump 2.0

Donald Trump's decisive presidential victory signals major shifts ahead for corporate America, with markets surging on expectations of deregulation, tax cuts, and a business-friendly Washington. Sorkin analyzes the immediate market reaction across stocks and crypto, identifies likely winners and losers across sectors, and previews potential policy changes in fiscal, regulatory, and trade matters. The piece establishes the framework for understanding how Trump's return will reshape the business landscape.

DealBook: Trump’s people?

Following Trump's election victory, Wall Street is analyzing cabinet possibilities and policy implications, with Kevin Warsh, Gary Cohn, and others positioned as key influencers on economic policy. Sorkin reports on the transition team structure (McMahon, Lutnick) and speculates on Treasury/AG candidates like Jay Clayton. The piece captures real-time market uncertainty about how Trump 2.0 will reshape financial regulation and business policy.

DealBook: Powell says “no”

Fed Chair Jerome Powell forcefully rejected the possibility of resigning if Trump demanded it and clarified that the president lacks legal authority to fire him, directly addressing Trump's past criticism of Fed independence. The confrontation highlights a major policy flashpoint for Trump 2.0, as the president-elect has previously advocated for presidential influence over interest rate decisions. This sets up a potential governance clash between the incoming administration and the central bank over monetary policy autonomy.

DealBook: A brake on Trumponomics?

Sorkin's team examines how bond market volatility could constrain Trump's fiscal policies despite Republican congressional control. While Trump plans tariff escalation and tax cuts that could widen deficits, bond investors' concerns about inflation and debt may force yields higher, creating natural market-based resistance to his agenda. This represents a key tension between Trump's growth-focused policies and financial market discipline.

DealBook: Justice for Gaetz

Donald Trump nominated controversial Rep. Matt Gaetz as attorney general, choosing a loyalist over traditional legal establishment figures like Jay Clayton. Sorkin examines how Gaetz's selection signals Trump's intent to use the Justice Department as a tool for his political agenda while noting the significant uncertainty around Senate confirmation. The pick has major implications for corporate America's regulatory environment and Trump's own legal exposure.

DealBook: The Kennedy effect

Trump's selection of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead HHS triggered immediate market reaction, with vaccine stocks like Pfizer and Moderna falling sharply. Sorkin examines how Kennedy's well-documented skepticism of vaccines and other public health orthodoxies signals a dramatic shift in U.S. health policy, though Senate confirmation remains uncertain. The appointment reflects Trump's broader strategy of disruptive cabinet picks that challenge Washington establishment norms.

DealBook: Why Commerce secretary matters

Howard Lutnick, Trump's transition chief, has been nominated as Commerce Secretary, a role that has grown significantly in importance under Biden's industrial policy agenda. Sorkin analyzes how Lutnick will shape Trump's tariff strategy, technology export controls, and potentially subsume the U.S. Trade Representative role, signaling a major consolidation of trade authority. The appointment matters because it reveals Trump's intent to aggressively reshape American industrial and trade policy while potentially sidelining traditional trade negotiators.

DealBook: Trump’s new face of justice

Trump named Pam Bondi as attorney general after Matt Gaetz withdrew, signaling continuity in his Justice Department overhaul agenda despite the personnel swap. Sorkin examines Bondi's track record as Florida AG and her lobbying work for major tech/auto clients, raising questions about potential conflicts and Republican willingness to support Trump's more divisive moves. The newsletter also covers crypto industry's regulatory wish list and automakers' defense of Biden vehicle standards.

DealBook: Stock for sale by cabinet members

Trump's selection of Scott Bessent as Treasury secretary and Howard Lutnick as Commerce secretary creates complex divestiture requirements and potential conflicts of interest. Sorkin examines how hedge fund "key man provisions" and deep corporate ties complicate the transition from Wall Street to Washington, while also noting tax implications. The piece highlights the tension between Trump's unconventional cabinet approach and standard ethics/conflict-of-interest protocols.

DealBook: The tariff negotiations begin

President-elect Trump announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico plus 10% on China starting Day 1, citing fentanyl and migration concerns. Global markets reacted sharply with falling stocks, rising dollar, and currency weakness in affected nations. Sorkin analyzes how investors are bracing for potential trade war disruption to supply chains and corporate profits.

DealBook: Inflation is back

With inflation progress stalling, today's PCE report arrives amid heightened uncertainty from Trump's proposed tariffs on major trading partners and tax cut plans. Sorkin examines how Trumponomics—combining immigration restrictions, trade wars, and fiscal stimulus—could disrupt the Fed's rate-cutting trajectory and reignite price pressures that markets thought were under control. The analysis connects immediate economic data to longer-term policy risks that will shape 2025.

DealBook: A more deal-friendly F.T.C.

Donald Trump has selected Andrew Ferguson to lead the FTC, replacing the aggressive antitrust enforcer Lina Khan with someone expected to take a more permissive stance on mergers. Ferguson's appointment signals a major shift in merger enforcement policy and validates deal makers' expectations that a second Trump administration would be more favorable to M&A activity. The move represents a fundamental reversal of Khan's activist antitrust strategy that had reshaped U.S. competition law over the past two years.

DealBook: Are tariffs inevitable?

Trump's transition team is signaling the president-elect will follow through on aggressive 25% tariffs against Canada, Mexico, China, and BRICS nations despite intense corporate lobbying. Sorkin reports that Trump views tariffs as a core policy, not a negotiating tactic, raising questions about whether his economic team can moderate his approach. The piece matters because tariff implementation would significantly impact corporate profits and global trade flows.

DealBook: Bracing for a Fed pullback

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates for a third time at its final 2024 meeting, but investors are increasingly concerned about a potential pause in cuts next year due to sticky inflation and Trump-era trade war risks. Fed Chair Jay Powell has signaled a more cautious stance, suggesting the central bank may keep borrowing costs higher longer—a dynamic that could create tension with the incoming Trump administration, echoing conflicts from his first term.

DealBook: The President-elect effect

The Federal Reserve cut rates but signaled a more cautious stance with fewer cuts ahead, triggering the worst market sell-off on a Fed announcement day since 2001. Sorkin highlights the tension between Powell's inflation-focused approach and Trump's likely preference for looser monetary policy heading into his presidency. The shift could complicate Trump's economic plans while adding to market uncertainty amid government shutdown risks.

DealBook: Silicon Valley goes to Washington

Trump is appointing multiple Silicon Valley executives to key administration roles, including Andreessen Horowitz partners Scott Kupor and Sriram Krishnan, signaling tech's growing political influence and shift toward the incoming administration. Sorkin examines how venture capital and tech leaders are positioning themselves in Washington, with particular focus on AI policy and government modernization. This reflects a broader realignment of tech's political allegiances and potential policy implications for regulation and innovation.

DealBook: Bull and bear cases for 2025

Sorkin examines Wall Street's outlook for 2025 equity markets, with experts predicting 13% S&P 500 gains despite uncertainty around Trump's agenda, inflation, and AI valuations. The piece balances bullish scenarios (consumer spending, corporate R&D investment) against bearish risks, while also reporting that CEOs are lobbying Elon Musk to influence Trump's immigration policy—a notable shift in corporate political strategy.

DealBook: The big questions

Sorkin and the DealBook team outline major themes expected to shape business and politics in 2025, including a predicted surge in M&A under Trump, the future of D.E.I. initiatives, office return trends, U.S.-China relations, and AI investments. The piece serves as a forward-looking agenda-setter rather than breaking news, identifying key areas where significant developments are likely. It provides useful context for investors and business leaders tracking potential disruptions and opportunities in the year ahead.

DealBook: The Amazon-Trump reset

Jeff Bezos is mending fences with President-elect Trump through strategic business moves, including Amazon's announcement of a Melania Trump documentary on Prime Video and a reported Disney-Fubo streaming merger. Sorkin examines how Bezos and other tech leaders are repositioning themselves ahead of Trump's return to power, analyzing whether these decisions are purely business-driven or politically motivated. The moves signal a broader corporate realignment with the incoming administration.

DealBook: Reading the room

Meta announced it would dismantle its fact-checking program and shift to user-driven content moderation (Community Notes style), a move widely interpreted as capitulation to Trump and conservatives. Sorkin argues the shift is less radical than headlines suggest but reflects a broader pattern of corporate leaders prioritizing alignment with Trump's political dominance. The move illustrates how tech executives are recalibrating their policies based on perceived political winds rather than principled positions.

DealBook: C.E.O.s hail the chief

Bezos, Zuckerberg, and other corporate leaders are positioning themselves prominently at Trump's inauguration after already donating heavily to his inaugural fund, signaling their eagerness to curry favor with a president promising major policy shifts like tariffs. Sorkin highlights the strategic calculus behind these moves—Amazon and Blue Origin seeking regulatory relief, Meta adjusting content moderation—showing how business leaders are actively managing their political relationships. This reflects the transactional nature of corporate-political ties and the stakes companies see in Trump's return to power.

DealBook: Bessent in the hot seat

Scott Bessent, Trump's Treasury secretary pick, faces his confirmation hearing today with likely approval but tough questioning on Trump's disruptive economic agenda, tariffs, and his own tax avoidance strategies. Democrats plan to challenge him on hedge fund earnings that allegedly helped him avoid $900K in payroll taxes, while markets watch closely given the Treasury role's impact on global economies. Bessent has bipartisan support despite criticism from progressives like Elizabeth Warren.

DealBook: The deal maker in chief

On Inauguration Day, Sorkin examines how Trump's return to office will reshape business-government relations through deal-making and unpredictability. He argues Trump is uniquely transactional, eager to engage CEOs publicly, but fundamentally fickle—creating both opportunity and risk for business leaders trying to navigate his administration. The piece frames the central challenge: how to manage a president whose support is conditional and whose red lines remain unclear.

DealBook: The war on D.E.I. heats up

President Trump is aggressively dismantling diversity, equity and inclusion programs across federal agencies and signaling corporate targets are next, creating alarm in boardrooms. The administration is requiring federal workers to report colleagues who resist D.E.I. purges, with legal experts warning of cascading corporate liability and compliance challenges. Sorkin captures the real-time business impact at Davos while Trump prepares his keynote address.

DealBook: The diss heard around Davos

President Trump publicly accused Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan of debanking conservatives during a Davos Q&A, creating a significant reputational moment for the bank. Simultaneously, Chinese AI startup DeepSeek's powerful new model sparked concern in the tech community about compute efficiency and competitive threats. Sorkin captures the real-time drama and market implications of both developments from the World Economic Forum.

DealBook: Billions more for A.I.

Major tech companies (Meta, Microsoft) are doubling down on massive A.I. spending despite competitive pressure from China's low-cost DeepSeek, signaling investor confidence in the sector's long-term value. Sorkin examines whether this spending surge is justified or a bubble, while also analyzing lingering tensions between Trump and Fed Chair Powell that could affect policy. The piece addresses both the competitive dynamics reshaping tech investment and political friction affecting monetary policy.

DealBook: Nowhere to hide

Trump's threatened 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting Feb 1 are forcing companies to scramble for supply chain alternatives, with even "safe" countries like Colombia now in play. Sorkin uses on-the-ground reporting from a Minnesota medical equipment maker to illustrate how tariff uncertainty is reshaping global manufacturing strategy. The piece captures the real-time business disruption from Trump's unconventional use of tariffs as geopolitical leverage beyond traditional trade disputes.

DealBook: Budget fix

Sorkin interviews Apollo Global Management CEO Marc Rowan about an unconventional federal budget model he's championing that combines tax cuts with elimination of exemptions, carbon taxes, and healthcare/immigration reforms. Though Rowan lost the Treasury Secretary race to Scott Bessent, he's gaining influence in Trump's orbit and among some Democrats, making this plan potentially relevant to upcoming budget negotiations. The Penn Wharton Budget Model projects significant long-term economic benefits but faces major political hurdles.

DealBook: The trade fight isn’t over yet

Trump's tariff offensive against China is now live with retaliatory measures from Beijing, while Canada and Mexico won temporary reprieves. Sorkin examines the uncertainty around Trump's endgame and the broader economic costs of using tariffs as a policy tool, with the EU potentially next in line. The piece highlights the confusion among business leaders about what constitutes "victory" in this trade strategy.

DealBook: Will the trade fight bite into Apple?

China's reported investigation into Apple's App Store practices triggered a $90 billion market value drop, illustrating how Trump's tariff threats could backfire on American tech companies. Sorkin examines the escalating trade war dynamics and Beijing's retaliatory tactics, while noting the Trump administration is attempting to manage fallout. The story highlights the unintended consequences of aggressive trade policy on U.S. corporate interests.

DealBook: A Wall Street tax break in the cross hairs

Trump has unexpectedly targeted the carried interest tax exemption—a major Wall Street tax break—as part of his tax reform agenda, signaling a potential legislative battle ahead. The move is surprising given Trump's typical support from financial interests and his previous defense of the provision. Sorkin examines whether private equity and hedge funds can successfully defend this cherished loophole as they have in the past.

DealBook: The new Tariff Bowl

President Trump announced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports plus reciprocal tariffs on major trading partners, with China already retaliating with $14 billion in counter-tariffs. Sorkin notes the market reaction has been surprisingly muted despite the escalation, contrasting with earlier trade war volatility. The piece signals a major new phase in Trump's trade policy affecting global supply chains across metals, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and agriculture.

DealBook: Trump’s chicken-and-egg problem

Persistent inflation—highlighted by surging egg prices and a CPI report showing 4.5% annualized headline inflation—threatens to constrain Trump's economic plans despite inheriting strong labor and stock markets. Market volatility has already spiked in response to the inflation data, raising questions about Fed and White House policy options. Sorkin frames this as a "chicken-and-egg problem" where Trump's economic ambitions may be hampered by forces beyond his immediate control.

DealBook: Bribesville

President Trump issued an executive order to weaken or eliminate the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, arguing it hampers U.S. business abroad. However, corporate lawyers warn the move could backfire by increasing costs for multinationals, as weakening anti-bribery enforcement creates incentives for competitors to engage in corruption, ultimately raising the price of doing business overseas. Sorkin highlights the counterintuitive corporate resistance to Trump's deregulatory move.

DealBook: Is Russia open for business?

As Trump signals potential peace talks with Putin and a possible meeting this month, Western businesses are eyeing Russia's reopening amid investor optimism about the Ukraine war ending. Sorkin examines the calculus for corporate leaders weighing "incredible opportunities" against unresolved sanctions concerns and the costly lessons of their 2022 exodus. The piece also previews Trump's regulatory consolidation plans affecting the SEC, FTC, and other agencies overseeing business.

DealBook: Pondering the Trump effect

Sorkin surveys the corporate reaction to Trump's volatile first month back in office, examining how executives are navigating rapid policy shifts on tariffs, DEI, government cuts, and regulatory uncertainty. The piece captures the tension between Trump's delivered campaign promises (tariffs, DEI rollbacks, bureaucratic cuts) and the unpredictability that leaves business leaders uncertain about future direction. This reflects the broader challenge facing deal makers and corporate strategists in an administration defined by sudden announcements and shifting priorities.

DealBook: Trump refocuses on trade

Trump signals imminent tariffs on Mexico, Canada (March 4) and steel/aluminum (March 11), spooking markets to their lowest since inauguration, while dangling resource deals with Ukraine/Russia as sweetener. Sorkin analyzes the carrot-and-stick strategy and notes Ukraine may have won concessions on resource fund demands, though security guarantees remain sticking point. Matters because tariff timing directly impacts corporate earnings and market volatility.

DealBook: Rare earth diplomacy

Ukraine and the Trump administration reached an agreement giving the U.S. a stake in future mineral monetization (lithium, titanium, uranium) with Ukraine contributing 50% of proceeds, after weeks of tense negotiations. Sorkin frames this as revealing Trump's broader geopolitical strategy to secure strategic resources globally, including from Russia, while noting the deal lacks security guarantees Zelensky sought. The deal reflects how the administration is linking Ukraine support to resource extraction and signals a shift toward mineral diplomacy as a core foreign policy tool.

DealBook: Inflation stalks Trump

Trump maintains tariff threats despite inflation concerns as the PCE report looms, with economists warning tariffs could raise inflation and lower growth. Sorkin examines whether today's inflation data will force a policy reckoning, amid broader economic headwinds including housing weakness, rising jobless claims, and consumer confidence erosion. The piece connects macro policy risks to household affordability and federal workforce uncertainty under Trump's agenda.

DealBook: Trump’s “gold card”

Trump's proposed $5 million "gold card" green card program would replace the EB-5 investor visa, alarming major real estate developers who rely on cheaper foreign capital for mega-projects like Hudson Yards. While the EB-5 program represents only $4 billion annually, it's crucial for a politically connected real estate industry that has financed major developments through this visa pathway. Sorkin's angle highlights the insider impact of a seemingly obscure policy shift on a powerful constituency.

DealBook: Questioning Trump’s crypto reserve

President Trump announced plans for a national crypto reserve holding five tokens (Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, Solana, Cardano), but faced unexpected criticism even from conservative allies and crypto backers over concerns about wealth concentration, industry legitimization, and unclear implementation. The proposal represents Trump's latest major policy gift to the crypto industry, which spent $130M supporting him, though details on mechanics and timeline remain vague.

DealBook: Tariffs are here. What’s next?

Trump's long-threatened tariffs on $1.5 trillion in imports from Canada, Mexico, and China took effect, triggering immediate market turmoil and retaliatory measures from trading partners. Sorkin frames this as a watershed moment with Warren Buffett's "act of war" quote underscoring the severity, while documenting real-time market impacts (S&P 500 worst day, VIX spike, auto sector selloff). The piece captures a major policy inflection point with immediate economic consequences and signals broader trade war escalation ahead.

DealBook: Trump’s next tariff move

President Trump doubled down on tariffs in a Congressional address, signaling they're permanent policy rather than negotiating tactics. DealBook analyzes the cascading effects: more tariffs on Europe likely inevitable, companies bracing for broader trade disruption, and fewer carve-outs expected even for allied nations like Britain. The piece provides substantive forward-looking analysis of a major policy shift reshaping global business strategy.

DealBook: Who’s got Trump’s ear

Sorkin analyzes Trump's tariff policy confusion by mapping the competing influences in his administration, particularly Howard Lutnick (moderate commerce secretary) versus Peter Navarro (hardline trade hawk). The piece uses recent tariff delays on autos and anticipated relief for agriculture to illustrate how understanding Trump's inner circle helps predict policy direction. This matters because tariff uncertainty is roiling markets and corporate planning.

DealBook: Tariff tantrum

The S&P 500 posted its worst week in two years as President Trump's erratic tariff policy created market volatility and corporate uncertainty. Sorkin reports on the collision between maximalist White House moves (many later reversed) and business leaders' inability to plan, with economists warning of a potential "tariff-induced recession." The piece captures real-time market reaction and executive anxiety about policy unpredictability.

DealBook: Will Trump kill carried interest?

President Trump is pushing to eliminate the carried interest tax loophole that allows private equity and hedge fund executives to pay ~20% tax on profits instead of ordinary income rates. The PE industry is mounting a significant lobbying campaign to preserve the provision, marking the biggest threat to it since Biden's failed attempt three years ago. Sorkin reports on the escalating stakes and industry mobilization efforts.

DealBook: Would Trump risk a recession?

As Trump's tariff war escalates with retaliatory measures from China, Canada, and Mexico, markets tumble and recession risks mount—yet the president shows no signs of backing down despite acknowledging potential economic pain. Sorkin examines whether mounting corporate warnings and market volatility will force Trump to recalibrate his trade agenda, or if he'll maintain his confrontational approach regardless of consequences.

Breaking news: Stocks see worst day of the year as recession talk gets louder

The S&P 500 dropped 2.7% after President Trump declined to rule out recession risks from his trade policies, marking the market's worst day of the year. Sorkin contextualizes this as a pivotal moment where policy uncertainty directly impacts investor sentiment and economic outlook. The story captures the tension between Trump's aggressive trade agenda and growing concerns about its macroeconomic consequences.

DealBook: Trump’s C.E.O. test

CEOs are meeting Trump at the White House to press for tariff clarity as markets tumble on economic policy fears. Stock indices fell sharply yesterday with the S&P 500 nearing correction territory, driven by uncertainty over Trump's tariff plans and recession concerns. Sorkin highlights the tension between Trump's "boom" campaign promises and his current "period of transition" messaging, with CEO confidence at its lowest since Spring 2020.

DealBook: Tariffs pile-on

New steel and aluminum tariffs took effect with no trading partners spared, prompting the EU to announce $28 billion in retaliatory levies on American goods. Trump doubled down on tariffs at a Business Roundtable event, signaling they could go higher despite market turmoil and corporate pushback. The escalating trade war threatens global economic stability and corporate profitability.

DealBook: Inflation reality

While yesterday's CPI report showed inflation cooling, Sorkin argues the positive headline masks deeper concerns about Trump's escalating trade war and its potential impact on consumer spending and corporate profits. Corporate leaders are increasingly vocal about uncertainty surrounding tariff policy, and economists warn the inflation data doesn't yet reflect the full effect of retaliatory measures from Canada, China, and the EU.

DealBook: Banker Politics

Investment banks are strategically hiring Trump administration officials and allies to navigate the new political landscape, with Centerview Partners bringing on Reince Priebus as a senior adviser. Sorkin reports that deal makers view access to Trumpworld as essential infrastructure for closing transactions, reflecting how geopolitical relationships have become a core M&A advisory service. This signals a broader shift in how financial firms structure their practices around political power.

DealBook: Purge at the F.T.C.

President Trump fired the FTC's two Democratic commissioners (Rebecca Slaughter and Alvaro Bedoya), claiming the move aligns with his administration's priorities and asserting it doesn't violate the 1935 Humphrey's Executor precedent that protects independent agency commissioners from at-will removal. The action represents a major escalation in Trump's effort to consolidate executive control over regulatory agencies, creating significant uncertainty for corporate America on antitrust and consumer protection enforcement.

DealBook: Powell’s silver lining

Fed Chair Jay Powell reassured markets that tariff-driven inflation from Trump's trade war would be temporary, lifting stock futures on expectations of rate cuts. However, Sorkin highlights the dangerous parallel to Powell's infamous 2022 "transitory" inflation call, with economists warning that tariffs could disrupt supply chains and durably raise prices—making Powell's optimism potentially premature and risky.

DealBook: The next target

The Trump administration's escalating assault on diversity programs has now targeted Sponsors for Educational Opportunity (SEO), a decades-old nonprofit that feeds entry-level talent into Wall Street firms. The EEOC sent letters to 20 law firms demanding D.E.I. information and specifically inquired about SEO, signaling potential regulatory pressure on a cornerstone of financial services diversity efforts. Sorkin explores how this move threatens the pipeline that has historically developed senior talent across major financial institutions.

DealBook: Trump, Big Law and an “existential crisis”

Paul, Weiss chairman Brad Karp defended his controversial deal with the Trump administration, claiming the firm faced an "existential crisis" from a Trump executive order threatening its client relationships. Karp's memo reveals internal fracturing in Big Law, with competing firms exploiting vulnerabilities and clients threatening to leave over political pressure. The article examines what the deal accomplished and signals potential broader implications for how corporate America navigates Trump's demands.

DealBook: The trouble with off-channel messaging

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth accidentally included The Atlantic's editor in a Signal group chat discussing sensitive Yemen bombing plans, raising Espionage Act violations and operational security concerns. Sorkin draws a parallel to Wall Street's $2B+ in fines for similar off-channel messaging violations, highlighting how both sectors struggle with communication protocol compliance. The incident underscores recurring institutional failures in managing sensitive information across informal channels.

DealBook: Big Law splinters

President Trump escalated attacks on major law firms with executive orders targeting Jenner & Block and threatening punishment for firms challenging his administration. Rather than uniting, competing law firms like Sullivan & Cromwell and Kirkland & Ellis are exploiting the turmoil by attempting to recruit partners and clients from affected firms like Paul, Weiss. Sorkin highlights how Trump's pressure is destabilizing the legal sector and fracturing industry solidarity.

DealBook: Tariff sticker shock

President Trump implemented threatened 25% tariffs on auto imports starting next week, triggering global stock selloffs and wiping billions from carmakers' valuations. The move threatens to disrupt complex supply chains, reignite inflation, and raise consumer car prices by ~$6,700 per vehicle. Even Elon Musk warned Tesla faces significant tariff impacts despite being seen as less vulnerable than competitors.

DealBook: E.S.G. Protectors

While major U.S. banks and asset managers have exited net zero climate networks under Trump pressure, large pension funds—particularly in blue states—are doubling down on climate commitments and joining UN-affiliated sustainability groups. Sorkin explores the divergence between corporate America's ESG retreat and institutional investors' continued climate focus, with NYC Comptroller Brad Lander arguing collective action is now more critical. The story highlights a significant fault line in how different financial institutions are responding to political pressure on environmental investing.

DealBook: Tariffs keep Wall Street on edge

President Trump's tariff announcement week has created significant market uncertainty, with Goldman Sachs raising recession odds to 35% and the S&P 500 facing its worst quarter since 2022. Sorkin highlights the contradictory signals from Trump and his team about scope and targets, while noting the $5 trillion stock market sell-off over six weeks reflects investor anxiety about potential trade disruption and inflation. The piece captures a pivotal moment of policy uncertainty with real economic consequences.

DealBook: The evolving math on tariffs

President Trump is set to announce reciprocal tariffs tomorrow amid significant market uncertainty and a stock sell-off. Sorkin highlights the lack of clarity around the plan's specifics while noting potential economic consequences including inflation risks and global growth concerns. The piece captures the tension between Trump's protectionist agenda and growing consumer/business anxiety about tariff impacts.

DealBook: The calm before the storm?

President Trump is set to announce major tariff policies today, with global markets bracing for impact as economists warn of potential trade war fallout. Sorkin breaks down the uncertainty around tariff structure (flat rate vs. country-specific vs. tiered) and immediate corporate scrambling (Mercedes, Sandoz), while reporting on Brussels' potential retaliatory "big bazooka" option. The piece captures real-time market anxiety and policy confusion ahead of a potentially economy-altering announcement.

DealBook: Reign of tariffs

President Trump unveiled sweeping reciprocal tariffs on 60 countries (34% on China, 20% on EU) claiming a "golden age," but markets reacted with panic—the S&P 500 headed for correction territory with major selloffs in tech, retail, and bonds. This represents the highest U.S. tariff rate in over a century and signals the biggest disruption to global trade in decades, with even Senate Republicans pushing back.

DealBook: Tariffs cheat sheet

Trump's sweeping tariffs on major trading partners (10% baseline, 54% on China) triggered market turmoil with the S&P 500 near bear market territory and Fed Chair Powell warning of recession risk and persistent inflation. Sorkin provides a framework of expert analysis on tariff impacts, corporate strategy, and economic outlook. This is essential context for understanding a major policy shift reshaping global trade and corporate planning.

DealBook: Where is the “off ramp”?

As stock markets plunge for a third consecutive day amid Trump's tariff escalation, Sorkin examines whether the administration has an exit strategy and raises critical systemic risk questions: could investment firm failures trigger contagion in banking and private credit markets? He argues the market carnage reflects self-inflicted ideological policy rather than economic necessity, and questions whether falling markets will actually strengthen or weaken Trump's negotiating position with trading partners.

Breaking news: S&P 500 plummets 4%, entering bear market territory

The S&P 500 dropped 4% and entered bear market territory as President Trump doubled down on his trade war stance, signaling no retreat from tariff policies. Sorkin frames this as a major market inflection point driven by policy uncertainty and global economic concerns. The article connects Trump's trade escalation to broader fears of recession and international retaliation.

Breaking news: Trump threatens China with more tariffs unless it retreats

President Trump issued an ultimatum to China to rescind retaliatory tariffs or face additional 50% tariffs starting Wednesday, threatening to end negotiations entirely. Sorkin's coverage captures the market volatility and real-time policy escalation in the U.S.-China trade war, with related reporting on market swings and Trump family financial gains amid the turmoil. This represents a significant geopolitical and economic development with immediate market implications.

DealBook: Rethinking global trade

Trump's escalating tariff threats are triggering market volatility and forcing a fundamental rethinking of global trade architecture. Sorkin reports that Wall Street analysts are downgrading outlooks, major CEOs (including Elon Musk) are pushing back, and business leaders fear an irreversible shift toward protectionism that could drive inflation, erode profits, and chill investment. The piece frames this as a potential "can't put the toothpaste back in the tube" moment comparable to pandemic-era supply chain restructuring.

DealBook: The art of the (tariff) deal

President Trump's sweeping tariffs took effect, including penalties on "worst offenders" and threatened pharmaceutical levies, sending global markets sharply lower. Sorkin highlights the confusion created by conflicting signals from top advisers—notably Elon Musk and Peter Navarro publicly feuding over tariff strategy—leaving business leaders uncertain whether Trump seeks negotiated deals or a protectionist overhaul. The escalating U.S.-China tariff war (104% on Chinese goods) threatens global supply chains and economic stability.

Breaking news: China and Europe hit back as U.S. tariffs kick in

U.S. tariffs triggered immediate retaliation from China and the EU, causing stock and bond market selloffs and raising recession fears. Sorkin's coverage examines the trade war's escalation, economist skepticism of Trump's deficit-focused approach, and parallels to the Liz Truss bond crisis. This represents a major geopolitical and financial market inflection point with global economic consequences.

DealBook: A bumpy bounceback

President Trump paused his most aggressive reciprocal tariffs, replacing them with a 10% blanket levy, triggering a global relief rally and the S&P 500's best day since 2008. However, Sorkin highlights that underlying risks persist: effective tariff rates remain 21 percentage points higher than January, U.S.-China tit-for-tat duties continue escalating (China now at 125%), and businesses face continued uncertainty about White House policy direction. The reprieve is fragile, with inflation concerns and supply chain disruption still looming despite market optimism.

Breaking news: Markets plummet as trade war with China intensifies

The S&P 500 fell 3.5% on concerns that escalating U.S.-China trade tensions will slow economic growth. Sorkin contextualizes the market reaction within Trump's broader policy agenda, including tariff reversals that caught advisers off-guard and competing initiatives like the Greenland acquisition plan. The piece captures a pivotal moment of policy uncertainty affecting financial markets.

DealBook: “Simply bad business”

President Trump's escalating tariff threats against China have sent CEO confidence to pandemic-era lows, despite stock market rallies suggesting investor optimism. Sorkin examines the contradiction between market resilience and business sentiment deterioration, analyzing whether Trump's mixed messaging on tech tariffs undermines his negotiating leverage with Beijing. The piece highlights the real economic uncertainty facing corporations as tariff announcements remain unpredictable and contradictory.

DealBook: The give-and-take tariff strategy

The Trump administration is employing selective tariff exemptions (autos get relief, chips/pharma don't) to manage market reaction, but the unpredictability is backfiring—global investors are dumping U.S. stocks at record rates and recession fears are mounting among Fed officials and CEOs. Sorkin analyzes how Treasury Secretary Bessent is tasked with messaging control while the underlying policy creates economic uncertainty.

DealBook: Trump and investors vs. the Fed

Fed Chair Jay Powell signaled the central bank won't intervene to support stock markets during Trump's trade war, prompting sharp market declines and a fresh White House attack. Trump demanded rate cuts and called for Powell's removal, while investors continue betting on Fed easing despite Powell's warnings, creating tension over central bank independence. The conflict highlights the administration's pressure on monetary policy amid economic uncertainty from tariffs.

DealBook: Fed fallout

President Trump's public attacks on Fed Chair Jay Powell and demands for immediate rate cuts are roiling markets and undermining his negotiating leverage on trade deals. The pressure campaign is eroding investor confidence in Fed independence, the dollar, and U.S. financial assets, with analysts warning of potential recession risks. Sorkin frames this as a strategic miscalculation—Trump's browbeating may be counterproductive to his broader economic agenda.

DealBook: Putting “points on the board”

President Trump signaled moderation on two major economic fronts—backing away from threats to fire Fed Chair Powell and indicating willingness to negotiate lower tariffs with China—after weeks of business leader warnings that his trade war was unsustainable. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emerged as a leading moderate voice advocating de-escalation. Markets rebounded on the news, suggesting Trump may be seeking an off-ramp from his aggressive economic agenda.

DealBook: Have we hit peak tariffs?

Business leaders and investors are pressuring Trump to reverse course on tariffs, with market rallies following each reported backtrack and reports suggesting potential cuts to auto and China duties. Sorkin examines the bull case for a Trump pivot while noting Treasury Secretary Bessent is tempering expectations, plus reporting that administration officials blocked Trump from firing Fed Chair Powell to avoid market chaos.

DealBook: Trump looms over Canada vote

Canadian voters head to polls today in an election dominated by Trump's tariff threats and annexation rhetoric, with both Liberal PM Mark Carney and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre pledging tough responses. Sorkin's reporting highlights how Trump's aggressive posture has unified Canadian political opposition and created a stark contrast with Mexico's more conciliatory approach. The outcome will shape North American trade dynamics and Canada's negotiating strategy with the Trump administration.

DealBook: Trump’s 100-day report card

Sorkin examines Trump's first 100 days, marked by trade war chaos and market volatility rather than the pro-business agenda Wall Street expected. The S&P 500 has fallen 8% (worst since Ford in 1974), with tariffs roiling boardrooms and M&A uncertainty rising. The piece includes reporting on GM withdrawing guidance and a Thrive Capital fundraising scoop.

DealBook: The costs of tariff transparency

Companies face a bind as Trump's tariffs threaten to force price increases—but publicly explaining tariff impacts risks presidential retaliation, as Amazon discovered when Trump called Bezos over a reported plan to disclose tariff-related pricing. Sorkin explores the tension between corporate transparency and political pressure, highlighting how trade policy uncertainty is forcing executives to choose between consumer honesty and avoiding executive branch backlash.

DealBook: Countdown to China trade talks

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will lead U.S. trade negotiations with China this weekend in Switzerland, but officials are tempering expectations for quick tariff relief, with Bessent suggesting a full deal could take three years. The talks represent a rare diplomatic opening in Trump's escalating trade war, though both sides continue hardline positioning. Markets are watching closely as the tariff dispute creates what Bessent calls "the equivalent of an embargo" between the world's two largest economies.

DealBook: Fear, and hope, at Milken

At the Milken Institute Global Conference, dealmakers and CEOs expressed anxiety about escalating trade tensions and tariff threats under Trump, with Treasury Secretary Bessent viewed as their last hope for resolution. Sorkin captures the shift from early-year optimism about Trump's business-friendly policies to current fears of sustained economic pain, highlighting how uncertainty is paralyzing deal activity. The reporting reveals executives are desperate for any trade deal announcement—even symbolic ones—to restore confidence.

DealBook: What can Bessent win in China talks?

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent begins high-stakes trade negotiations with China in Geneva as Wall Street watches closely for signs Trump will moderate his protectionist agenda. The S&P 500 has rallied 13% on hopes for trade deal progress, but administration officials are tempering expectations—Bessent warned a full China deal could take years. The article examines whether Trump can replicate the Britain framework agreement with larger economic powers.

DealBook: The president’s top economist

Sorkin's team interviews Stephen Miran, chair of Trump's Council of Economic Advisers, as the administration's aggressive tariff policy roils markets and raises questions about inflation and dollar weakness. Miran defends the unconventional trade strategy while acknowledging "volatility," offering insight into the White House's economic rationale during a critical period of trade negotiations with China and Britain. The piece provides direct access to the administration's thinking on a policy with major implications for consumers, markets, and global commerce.

DealBook: What Trump actually got in Riyadh

President Trump's first major overseas trip secured major corporate commitments in Saudi Arabia, including a $142B defense agreement, $18B+ in chip sales to Saudi AI startup Humain, and $80B in tech investments from Google, Oracle, and Uber. Sorkin analyzes whether these are genuinely new deals or repackaged announcements, and frames the visit as Trump pivoting from trade war turmoil to his preferred transactional dealmaking. The reporting captures how corporate leaders are betting on Trump's deal-focused approach despite recent trade tensions.

DealBook: Bond vigilantes vs. the budget

Treasury yields climbed to nearly 5% as investors grow anxious about Trump's deficit-expanding spending bill and tax cuts moving through House Republicans. Sorkin frames this as a potential repeat of April's "bond vigilante" revolt that forced the White House to reverse tariff policy, suggesting markets may again constrain the Trump agenda. The tension between fiscal stimulus and market discipline is a key economic story with real policy consequences.

DealBook: The debate over Trump’s A.I. deals

Trump administration negotiated chip export deals with Gulf states for AI development, allowing Nvidia and AMD to sell advanced processors to Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar for massive AI campuses. Venture capitalist advisers David Sacks and Sriram Krishnan brokered the agreements, but the deals face pushback from security hawks concerned about technology transfer and from those questioning the administration's antitrust stance amid the Charter-Cox cable merger. The reporting reveals internal Trump administration divisions on AI policy and raises questions about whether geopolitical dealmaking will override national security considerations.

DealBook: “Sell America” comes back

Moody's credit downgrade of the U.S., combined with Trump's tariff and tax cut plans, has reignited the "sell America" trade as investors dump bonds and equities. Sorkin examines the market pressure on the White House to negotiate trade deals and on Speaker Johnson to convince fiscal hawks to support permanent tax cuts, with Treasury yields climbing above 5% and bond vigilantes testing policy resolve. The piece highlights the tension between Trump's campaign promises and market realities.

DealBook: Fiscal fallout

Treasury markets experienced volatility as global investors grow anxious about America's ballooning federal deficit amid Trump's trade war and a proposed $3.3 trillion spending bill heading to a House vote. Moody's downgrade of U.S. credit rating and foreign investor pullback from dollar assets signal deepening concerns about fiscal sustainability. Sorkin frames this as a critical moment where market confidence in U.S. financial stability is being tested by policy uncertainty.

DealBook: Spending standoff

Treasury yields spike above 5% as investors worry a Republican spending bill could push U.S. fiscal debt to record levels, threatening Trump's domestic agenda. Sorkin analyzes the collision between Washington politics and market reality, noting House Republicans can only afford three defectors while major disagreements persist over Medicaid cuts and tax deductions. The bill's inclusion of a $542B missile defense project highlights how fiscal policy decisions ripple through defense contracting and borrowing costs for businesses.

DealBook: The budget bill advances

House Republicans passed a Trump-backed spending bill with major tax cuts and Biden policy rollbacks, but bond investors are alarmed about deficit implications, driving up yields. The bill includes $4 trillion in debt limit increases and "Trump accounts" for newborns, but falls short on Trump's 15% corporate tax rate promise. The Senate remains a key battleground where some Republican priorities may be restored.

DealBook: Trump vs. Apple, Harvard and BlackRock

President Trump threatened Apple with 25% tariffs unless it moves iPhone manufacturing to the U.S., while his administration moved to revoke Harvard's international student certification—a move that could cost the university hundreds of millions annually. Sorkin examines the financial and strategic fallout from these escalating Trump administration actions against major institutions, highlighting the broader implications of tariff threats and regulatory pressure on corporate supply chains and higher education.

DealBook: Tim Cook’s “off-ramp"

Sorkin explores potential compromises Tim Cook could offer Trump to avoid a trade war that could devastate Apple's valuation and supply chain. Drawing on interviews with executives and analysts, the piece outlines practical alternatives to full U.S. iPhone manufacturing (which would push prices to $3,500+). This addresses a critical emerging tension between the Trump administration and one of America's most valuable companies.

DealBook: The “3 percent” solution

Ray Dalio's new book on fiscal crises is circulating among White House officials and senior Republicans as a potential framework for addressing America's ballooning deficits, proposing to reduce the deficit-to-GDP ratio from 7% to 3%. Sorkin reports on this policy idea gaining real influence while Republicans simultaneously push a mega spending bill, highlighting the tension between fiscal rhetoric and action. The piece also flags concerns about Trump's tariff policies facing court challenges and Musk's alleged White House influence against OpenAI.

DealBook: How low will it go?

The U.S. dollar hit a three-year low as the OECD cut growth forecasts amid Trump's tariff concerns, with major banks predicting further 9% declines. Economists worry that tax cuts combined with tariff-induced slowdown could trigger stagflation while pushing global investors away from dollar assets. This currency shift has significant implications for Treasury markets, corporate earnings, and international capital flows.

DealBook: “HARD TO MAKE A DEAL”

President Trump's optimistic rhetoric about trade negotiations with China is colliding with reality as talks stall and both sides escalate tariffs and export controls. Treasury Secretary Bessent acknowledged negotiations have "stalled" while Trump doubled steel/aluminum tariffs to 50% and China restricted rare earth metal exports, threatening U.S. manufacturing. Sorkin highlights the gap between Trump's dealmaking confidence and the actual complexity of trade diplomacy, with major implications for industrial companies and auto makers.

DealBook: Reason for hope?

U.S. negotiators claim breakthrough in London trade talks with China, citing progress on rare earth mineral exports and potential rollback of retaliatory measures. Sorkin applies healthy skepticism, noting lack of transparency and questioning whether this represents genuine progress or merely resets previous agreements. Markets await Trump-Xi approval and full details before declaring victory.

DealBook: The raid factor

President Trump's expanded immigration enforcement is moving beyond Los Angeles to affect businesses nationwide, with particular impact on construction, hospitality, healthcare, and manufacturing sectors. Sorkin reports on employer concerns about workforce disruptions and potential operational shutdowns, citing employment law experts warning of economic destabilization. The piece connects policy implementation to real business consequences and growth risks.

DealBook: The economics of conflict

The Trump administration is conditioning approval of the Interpublic-Omnicom advertising merger on a pledge that the combined firm won't boycott political platforms when buying ad space for clients. Sorkin explores the irony of the administration opposing corporate political speech restrictions while previously supporting Citizens United, and raises the practical tension between agency professional obligations to protect client brands and this new constraint. The piece examines how regulatory conditions could reshape Madison Avenue's business model.

DealBook: Profits of doom

As Israel-Iran conflict escalates into its fifth day with Trump sending mixed signals on resolution, markets remain surprisingly resilient—dipping modestly but holding near recent peaks. Sorkin explores the counterintuitive disconnect between geopolitical turmoil and stock market stability, examining how investors price existential risks. The piece questions why markets don't crater during wartime uncertainty and what that reveals about risk assessment in modern finance.

DealBook: China’s move

Following Trump's bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities, Sorkin explores the overlooked geopolitical dimension: China's role as Iran's largest economic partner and how Beijing's response could reshape U.S.-China negotiations on trade, Taiwan, and regional stability. Expert analysis suggests the U.S. action paradoxically strengthens China's negotiating position by adding Iran management to Washington's growing list of demands from Beijing.

DealBook: Powell’s shadow?

Trump is reportedly considering announcing Jay Powell's Fed replacement early—potentially this summer—to create a "shadow Fed chair" who would influence markets before taking office. The move reflects Trump's frustration with Powell's cautious rate-cutting stance. Meanwhile, Wall Street executives are mobilizing millions to find a candidate to challenge progressive NYC mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani, signaling corporate anxiety about left-wing politics in major cities.

DealBook: Are investors too complacent?

Stock markets hit record highs even as President Trump escalates tariff threats (35% on Canada, 15-20% baseline on all partners), defying typical trade war logic. Jamie Dimon attributes the disconnect to market complacency rather than fundamentals, while investors debate whether optimism stems from expected Fed rate cuts, strong earnings, or repeat expectations that Trump will back down. The article examines the tension between trade policy uncertainty and market resilience.

DealBook: Trump’s casino

A buried provision in Trump's domestic policy legislation limits gambling loss deductions to 90%, effectively creating a 10% tax on break-even gambling and making professional gambling economically unviable. The change is projected to raise $1.1 billion over a decade but has sparked immediate backlash from professional gamblers, casinos, and lawmakers who are mobilizing to overturn it before implementation next year. Sorkin highlights an overlooked policy detail with significant industry consequences and emerging political battle lines.

DealBook: Cashing in chips

Nvidia announced it can resume selling H20 semiconductors to China, a major reversal of Trump administration restrictions that had limited the chipmaker's access to a crucial market. Sorkin explores whether this represents a genuine policy shift or tactical maneuvering within trade negotiations, with implications for U.S.-China tech competition and national security. The move signals potential cracks in the administration's tech trade war strategy and could reshape semiconductor industry dynamics.

DealBook: Playing chicken with the Fed?

President Trump is escalating rhetoric about potentially firing Jay Powell, the Fed chair, including reportedly circulating a draft termination letter at a House Republican meeting. Sorkin explores the legal and market implications of such a move, noting that while investors appear calm, the repeated threats raise questions about when markets will take the possibility seriously. The piece examines how a Powell firing could gradually shift global investor confidence in U.S. institutions rather than cause immediate shock.

DealBook: A $4 trillion moment

Crypto's market cap surpassed $4 trillion for the first time as the Trump administration embraces the sector, with the House passing the Genius Act to regulate stablecoins and Trump expected to sign it into law. The legislation could allow major retailers like Amazon and Walmart to issue their own stablecoins, bypassing traditional payment networks. Sorkin examines how crypto companies have gained unprecedented political influence and what regulatory changes mean for the industry's future.

DealBook: “Massive”

The Trump administration announced a trade agreement with Japan featuring 15% tariffs on imports—below the threatened 25%—sparking rallies in Asian and European markets. Sorkin examines whether this deal serves as a template for negotiations with other major trading partners ahead of next week's tariff deadline. The agreement signals potential relief from trade tensions while raising questions about broader tariff strategy and corporate profitability impacts.

DealBook: Don a hard hat

President Trump conducted a rare hard-hat tour of Federal Reserve headquarters, using the Fed's $2.5 billion renovation project as a pressure tactic to push Jay Powell toward interest rate cuts. Sorkin argues the theatrical visit is likely counterproductive, as it reinforces the Fed's need to demonstrate independence and will probably harden Powell's resolve against rate cuts ahead of next week's meeting. The incident highlights growing concerns about presidential pressure on the central bank's autonomy.

DealBook: The new normal?

The U.S. and E.U. reached a framework trade agreement imposing 15% tariffs on most European imports, avoiding steeper levies but establishing a new baseline far above pre-Trump levels (~4.8%). While markets initially reacted positively, Sorkin emphasizes the deal doesn't address Trump's core complaints on digital taxes and nontariff barriers, and signals a template for tougher negotiations ahead with China.

DealBook: Antitrust civil war

Internal conflict is escalating within the Trump administration's antitrust division, with top deputies departing amid disagreements over merger review standards. Sorkin explores how despite Trump's generally pro-business stance, antitrust enforcement remains contentious, signaling potential policy shifts that could affect major corporate deals. The infighting suggests uncertainty about the administration's actual M&A approval criteria going forward.

DealBook: They’re here

President Trump's new tariff regime affecting 90+ countries took effect, with rates hitting automakers (Toyota down $9.5B), semiconductors, and global trade. Markets initially shrugged off the impact as earnings held up and some exporters found resilient demand outside the U.S. Sorkin tracks the real-time corporate and investor response, noting which companies negotiated exemptions and how the tariff structure creates winners and losers.

DealBook: Trump’s Fed chess

President Trump nominated Stephen Miran, a hedge fund executive and economic adviser, to fill a Fed vacancy, positioning him to vote for lower interest rates despite inflation concerns from Trump's tariffs. Sorkin analyzes how Miran's appointment reshapes Fed dynamics and pressures Jay Powell, while also covering OpenAI's latest model release and AI-driven financial strategies. The nomination immediately moved markets—dollar fell, rate cut expectations rose—signaling potential policy shifts ahead.

DealBook: What could go wrong?

President Trump signed an executive order easing restrictions on alternative assets in 401(k)s, fulfilling a long-standing private equity industry goal to access $12.2 trillion in retirement savings. Danielle Kaye examines the risks this poses to both consumers and the industry itself, as PE faces slowing exits and declining returns. The shift represents a major regulatory change with significant implications for retail investors' retirement security.

DealBook: A tax, or a payoff?

Trump administration struck a deal with Nvidia and AMD to take 15% of their China chip sales in exchange for export licenses—a surprising pivot that blurs the line between national security policy and revenue extraction. Sorkin frames this as either innovative industrial policy or a form of corporate shakedown, highlighting tensions between restricting Chinese AI access and maintaining U.S. tech dominance. The arrangement raises questions about Trump's true trade strategy and whether it actually undermines American technological leadership.

DealBook: A new brand of U.S. capitalism

Trump postponed tariff negotiations with China for 90 days while announcing a deal where Nvidia pays the U.S. government 15% of AI chip sales to China. Sorkin explores whether this arrangement—positioning major tech companies as extensions of government policy—fundamentally challenges the independent capitalism model the U.S. has long promoted globally. The deal raises concerns among lawmakers about national security and Beijing's access to advanced AI technology.

DealBook: September on the table

Stock markets surge on expectations of Fed rate cuts despite evidence that Trump's tariffs are driving inflation, creating a disconnect between economic fundamentals and investor optimism. Sorkin examines why markets are rallying despite mixed signals and explores Trump's pushback against critics of his trade policies. The piece highlights the tension between tariff-driven price pressures and the Fed's likely response, with major implications for monetary policy and market direction.

DealBook: Nvidianomics

The Trump administration struck an unusual arrangement with Nvidia and AMD to permit semiconductor sales to China in exchange for 15% revenue cuts to the U.S. government, sparking debate over whether this represents a new model for industrial policy or a national security risk. Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested the arrangement could expand to other industries, signaling a potential shift in how the administration manages corporate-government relationships. Sorkin examines both the precedent-setting nature of the deal and concerns from China hawks about its geopolitical implications.

DealBook: Powell speaks

Fed Chair Jay Powell delivers what may be his final Jackson Hole speech as markets worry about inflation, tariffs, and Trump's attacks on central bank independence. Sorkin highlights three key issues: interest rate policy, Fed independence, and pressure on Governor Lisa Cook over unconfirmed allegations. The newsletter also covers stablecoin growth and AI tools for executives.

DealBook: Fighting the Fed

Trump is pursuing a "majority" on the Federal Reserve's board and could influence regional Fed president appointments in February, potentially installing ideologically aligned policymakers for a generation. Sorkin frames this as a fundamental threat to Fed independence, contrasting warnings from figures like Christine Lagarde and Ray Dalio against market complacency as stocks hit new highs. The piece explores the paradox of investors ignoring institutional risks while equity markets surge.

DealBook: Betting on tariff refunds

Financial firms are offering to purchase tariff refund rights from companies hit by Trump's tariffs, betting that courts will overturn the levies. Companies facing costly legal battles are considering selling these rights for immediate cash at steep discounts. The trade reflects Wall Street's skepticism about the tariffs' legal durability while providing importers liquidity to weather the trade war.

DealBook: Griffin vs. Trump

Ken Griffin, CEO of Citadel, publicly criticized President Trump's efforts to undermine Federal Reserve independence—a rare move among business leaders who have largely stayed silent. Griffin and University of Chicago economist Anil Kashyap warned in the WSJ that Trump's pressure on the Fed to lower rates and his attempts to fire officials carry "steep costs" and recall risks seen in emerging markets. The article also covers Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's proposal to narrow the Fed's mandate and JPMorgan Chase's Epstein connections.

DealBook: TikTok diplomacy

President Trump indicated progress in U.S.-China trade talks held in Madrid, including potential movement on a TikTok deal, and praised Xi Jinping, causing global markets to rally. Treasury Secretary Bessent announced negotiators had reached "a framework for a deal" on TikTok. Sorkin examines whether this represents genuine diplomatic progress or market-moving rhetoric amid ongoing trade tensions.

DealBook: Fed fireworks

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by a quarter-point today, but the real story is internal discord—Trump-aligned governor Stephen Miran may push for larger cuts while inflation hawks resist, creating potential public dissent that could undermine Fed independence. Sorkin frames this as a critical test of whether the central bank can maintain credibility amid political pressure from the White House.

DealBook: Kimmel off air

ABC pulled Jimmy Kimmel's show indefinitely after his comments about a suspect in Charlie Kirk's killing drew criticism from right-wing activists and FCC Chair Brendan Carr. Sorkin highlights how this represents a shift from alleged Biden-era content moderation to companies now proactively censoring content they fear will anger the Trump administration, with potential regulatory consequences (Nexstar's $6.2B Tegna deal pending FCC approval). The incident illustrates broader corporate self-censorship dynamics and regulatory leverage in the Trump era.

DealBook: “Not done yet”

Disney suspended Jimmy Kimmel after local TV station owners (Nexstar, Sinclair) threatened not to air his show, following controversial comments and Trump administration pressure on media companies. Sorkin explores the tension between free speech concerns and legitimate business interests—advertisers, employees, and affiliate stations all exerting real pressure on media companies. This illustrates how political pressure is reshaping media business decisions in real time.

DealBook: H-1B upheaval

The Trump administration's sudden H-1B visa policy changes—including a proposed $100,000 fee—triggered weekend chaos as major tech companies rushed to keep employees in the U.S., though White House clarification limited the impact to new applications. Sorkin highlights the speed and opacity of Trump's policy-making and its real-time business consequences. The episode illustrates how executive action on immigration can create immediate corporate disruption with geopolitical talent implications.

DealBook: Apple + Intel?

Intel's shares surged on reports that Apple is considering a strategic investment in the chipmaker, following the U.S. government's $8.9 billion stake purchase and investments from Nvidia and SoftBank. Sorkin explores how government backing and Trump administration pressure are reshaping Intel's future and attracting major tech companies seeking political favor. The convergence of geopolitical strategy, industrial policy, and corporate investment reveals shifting dynamics in American capitalism.

DealBook: Who’s next?

President Trump secured a federal indictment of former FBI Director James Comey and has publicly named billionaires George Soros and Reid Hoffman as potential targets for investigation, signaling a weaponization of federal power against political opponents. Sorkin examines whether Trump's moves will chill CEO willingness to speak out against the administration, raising fundamental questions about the politicization of justice. This represents a major shift in presidential conduct with implications for business leadership, free speech, and rule of law.

DealBook: Shutdown stakes

With hours until a potential government shutdown, negotiations between President Trump and congressional leaders have stalled over Democratic demands for healthcare subsidies and Medicaid funding extensions. Unlike previous shutdowns with minimal market impact, observers warn this one arrives at an economically delicate moment and could have different consequences. The Trump administration has threatened permanent layoffs rather than furloughs, signaling both political leverage and ideological intent to shrink federal workforce.

DealBook: Shutdown worries

The federal government shut down as Republicans and Democrats remained deadlocked, triggering immediate market volatility with dollar and S&P 500 futures falling and gold hitting record highs. The Trump administration signaled plans for drastic federal workforce layoffs, while also announcing TrumpRx, a new platform for Americans to purchase drugs directly from manufacturers at discounted rates. The shutdown threatens critical economic data releases and could cost $400 million daily in federal worker furloughs.

DealBook: Trump’s Fed test

The Supreme Court ruled that Fed Governor Lisa Cook can remain in her position until January hearings on whether Trump can fire her over mortgage fraud allegations. While the decision likely won't immediately affect near-term rate cuts, it signals potential complications for Trump's broader effort to reshape the Federal Reserve's leadership and policy direction. The case represents a major constitutional test of presidential power over the central bank.

DealBook: Who’ll blink first?

As U.S.-China trade tensions intensify with tariffs set to take effect next month, Treasury Secretary Bessent signals a potential truce remains possible while simultaneously escalating rhetoric over critical minerals exports. Sorkin examines the leverage dynamics and behind-the-scenes negotiations that will shape the global economy in coming weeks, alongside scoops on Chobani's $20B valuation and Mammoth Brands' $1B diaper deal.

DealBook: Wall Street’s China problem

China's regulatory crackdown on tech IPOs, exemplified by Didi's app store ban days after its U.S. listing, is expanding to all foreign-listed tech companies and fintech firms, threatening a major revenue stream for Wall Street. Sorkin quantifies the financial impact: Chinese IPOs have generated nearly $460 million in underwriting fees this year, with roughly 70 more companies expected to list, representing up to 8% of Goldman Sachs's underwriting revenue. The piece connects geopolitical tensions (Biden's Hong Kong warnings) to immediate dealmaking consequences, offering original analysis of how regulatory risk reshapes M&A pipelines.

DealBook: Can the U.S. and China pull back from the brink?

Former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson warns in an exclusive speech that escalating U.S.-China tensions could trigger financial instability and undermine global cooperation on critical issues. Sorkin reports on Paulson's argument that complete financial decoupling is impossible and partial separation risks systemic crises. The piece contextualizes Biden-Xi virtual summit discussions against warnings from a heavyweight financial voice on geopolitical risk.

DealBook: “If you worry, you don’t have to worry”

Sorkin interviews Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio ahead of his book "The Changing World Order," which analyzes economic cycles across four empires (Dutch, British, American, Chinese) to understand current conditions. Dalio argues empires follow predictable patterns of rise and decline, offering a framework for understanding where America stands today and what economic challenges may lie ahead. The piece combines Dalio's track record as a crisis predictor with his broader thesis on long-term economic cycles.

DealBook: What’s at stake in Ukraine

Russia formally recognized separatist enclaves and crossed into Ukraine, triggering Western sanctions threats and market volatility. Sorkin analyzes the global economic implications—particularly energy supply disruptions and commodity price spikes—as the conflict escalates. The piece captures a pivotal geopolitical moment with direct financial consequences for Europe and global markets.

DealBook: Battle lines

Russia's invasion of Ukraine pushed the S&P 500 into correction territory (10%+ decline), triggering coordinated international sanctions on Russian banks and officials. Sorkin analyzes the economic ripple effects—from energy/commodity shortages to financial system disruption—despite Russia/Ukraine representing only 3% of global GDP, with warnings that more severe penalties could follow escalation.

DealBook: Russia attacks, the world responds

Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, triggering immediate market turmoil with stocks plunging, oil surpassing $100/barrel, and European banks with Russian exposure collapsing. Sorkin captures the real-time financial shock and geopolitical consequences of a major military conflict reshaping global markets and economic outlook. This represents a watershed moment with lasting implications for energy prices, sanctions regimes, and financial stability.

DealBook: Sanctions and consequences

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is roiling global markets and forcing multinationals to halt operations, evacuate employees, and reassess supply chains amid new sanctions. Sorkin captures the immediate corporate scramble and market volatility, showing how geopolitical shocks disrupt boardroom planning and dealmaking. The piece establishes the economic fallout beyond the battlefield—a key angle for understanding how war translates to business impact.

DealBook: Energy policy and Ukraine

Sorkin examines how Russia's dominance in European energy supplies (40% of natural gas, 25%+ of oil) constrains Western sanctions options during the Ukraine invasion. Through an interview with energy geopolitics expert Daniel Yergin, the piece explores the tension between climate transition goals and immediate energy security concerns exposed by the conflict.

DealBook: Economic warfare

The U.S. and allies imposed historic financial sanctions on Russia including SWIFT exclusion and central bank asset freezes, triggering currency collapse, inflation fears, and emergency rate hikes. Sorkin frames this as "completely unprecedented" economic warfare with global destabilizing effects. The sanctions represent a watershed moment in using financial systems as geopolitical weapons.

DealBook: Geopolitical risk returns

As Russia's invasion of Ukraine unfolds, Western nations impose severe sanctions designed to collapse the Russian economy. Sorkin analyzes how markets are responding with surprising restraint despite the geopolitical shock, examining investor calculations about long-term implications and lessons learned from 2014 Crimea sanctions. The piece captures a pivotal moment where financial warfare becomes a primary policy tool.

DealBook: Squeezing the oligarchs

As Russia's invasion of Ukraine escalates, the U.S. and allies launch coordinated efforts to seize and freeze assets of Putin-connected oligarchs, including new Task Force KleptoCapture and yacht seizures across multiple countries. Sorkin examines how governments and private institutions are applying economic pressure while highlighting the practical challenges of tracking and confiscating assets hidden across jurisdictions. The reporting shows the emerging financial warfare strategy against Russia's elite.

DealBook: Oil up, stocks down

Energy prices surged and global stocks fell sharply as the Ukraine war and potential Russian oil sanctions roiled markets, with Brent crude briefly exceeding $130/barrel. Sorkin highlights the IMF's warning of severe economic impact and the practical complications of enforcing an oil embargo, illustrated by Shell's continued Russian purchases despite stated exit plans. The piece captures a critical inflection point in how geopolitical conflict translates to immediate financial market disruption and policy dilemmas.

DealBook: Extreme risk management

As Russian forces advance in Ukraine and Putin puts nuclear forces on alert, investment strategists are incorporating once-unthinkable scenarios into their market analysis. BCA Research's Peter Berezin sparked debate by assigning a 10% probability to nuclear war in the coming year while still recommending investors stay bullish on stocks, forcing a reckoning with tail-risk management in volatile times.

DealBook: The great separation

Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the U.S., U.K., and E.U. announced sweeping energy sanctions while major corporations like Shell voluntarily cut ties, rapidly severing Russia from the global economy. Sorkin examines the speed and scope of this economic punishment, noting that while Russia faces a projected 9% GDP contraction and default risk, the disruption to global oil supplies (Russia provides ~10% of world output) threatens to spike prices to $175/barrel and accelerate U.S. inflation. The article captures a pivotal moment of economic decoupling with far-reaching consequences for both Russia and Western consumers.

DealBook: Follow the money

The UK imposed severe sanctions on seven Russian billionaires including Roman Abramovich and Oleg Deripaska, freezing their assets and potentially blocking Abramovich's sale of Chelsea F.C. Sorkin examines how authorities are targeting not just oligarchs' visible assets (yachts, mansions) but also the financial infrastructure—investment firms, hedge funds, law firms—that help them hide and manage wealth. This reflects a coordinated global effort to disrupt Russian oligarchs' financial networks amid the Ukraine invasion.

DealBook: Unbanking Russia

Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase announced withdrawals from Russia following the invasion of Ukraine, joining multinational companies in divesting. Sorkin contextualizes the moves as relatively low-impact for the banks (Goldman's $650M exposure, ~80 employees) but symbolically significant, while noting Citigroup's larger $10B exposure and 3,000-person presence creates a more complex exit. The reporting captures a pivotal moment of Wall Street's geopolitical realignment during a major international crisis.

DealBook: All or nothing?

As Western sanctions on Russia intensify following the Ukraine invasion, companies making partial withdrawals face mounting pressure to make complete exits rather than maintain limited operations. Firms like PepsiCo, Danone, and P&G initially announced they'd continue selling essential products, but activists and public opinion are pushing for an "all or nothing" approach, forcing some companies like Deutsche Bank and Uniqlo to reverse course and fully divest.

DealBook: Default or no default?

Russia faces a potential first sovereign default since 1917 as $117 million in interest payments come due on dollar-denominated bonds, with the core dispute being whether paying in rubles (due to sanctions) constitutes default. Sorkin's team examines the $40 billion in foreign debt at stake, the 30-day grace period that delays technical default until mid-April, and regulators' assessment that systemic risk is limited given investors' reduced exposure post-2014. The article provides essential context on a major geopolitical-financial event with real consequences for global markets and investor portfolios.

DealBook: The end of globalization?

Major asset managers Larry Fink (BlackRock) and Howard Marks (Oaktree) are warning that Russia's invasion of Ukraine and subsequent economic isolation signal a permanent shift away from globalization toward localized supply chains and "friendshoring." Sorkin captures how geopolitical shocks are forcing corporations and governments to prioritize security and resilience over cost efficiency, a structural economic realignment with lasting implications for markets and corporate strategy.

DealBook: Who’s buying Russian stocks?

Russia's Moscow Exchange partially reopened nearly a month after invading Ukraine, allowing only 33 stocks to trade under severe restrictions including foreign investor lockouts and short-selling bans, with the government pledging $10 billion in support. Sorkin's reporting captures the artificiality of the reopening—a "Potemkin market" designed to project stability while Russia's financial system remains deeply isolated by Western sanctions. The piece illustrates how geopolitical crises fundamentally break market mechanisms and force governments into extraordinary interventions.

DealBook: Breaking up

As Western leaders intensify sanctions on Russia following atrocities in Ukraine, multinational corporations and small businesses confront the painful reality of extricating themselves from Russian operations. Sorkin highlights the collateral damage: disrupted supply chains, stranded inventory, asset seizure risks, and the particular squeeze on European firms dependent on Russian markets. The piece illustrates how geopolitical punishment creates genuine business dilemmas with no clean solutions.

DealBook: Putin’s enemy speaks

Sorkin interviews Bill Browder, a financier-turned-Kremlin-critic, on the mechanics of sanctions against Russia following its Ukraine invasion. Browder argues that targeting oligarchs is more effective than direct Putin sanctions because much of their wealth is held on behalf of the president. The piece provides insider perspective on how financial pressure could influence Russian policy during an active geopolitical crisis.

DealBook: Back to the Alps

The World Economic Forum reconvenes in Davos for the first time since January 2020, but the geopolitical landscape has fundamentally shifted due to the pandemic, Russia-Ukraine war, inflation, and food instability. Sorkin examines whether the forum's core tenets—globalization, liberalism, free market capitalism—remain viable in this transformed world. The piece offers timely analysis of how business-government partnerships and international cooperation face unprecedented challenges.

DealBook: Davos in a time of war

Ukrainian President Zelensky delivered a virtual address at the World Economic Forum calling on businesses to sever ties with Russia, receiving a standing ovation. The speech underscored Russia's growing isolation from Western business and policy circles, with no Russian officials invited to Davos and the symbolic conversion of the "Russia House" into a "Russian War Crimes House." Sorkin captures how geopolitical crisis is reshaping the traditionally apolitical Davos gathering and forcing corporate decisions on Russia engagement.

DealBook: Biden, oil and the Middle East

President Biden is visiting Saudi Arabia despite campaign promises to isolate the kingdom, seeking increased oil production to ease U.S. inflation amid Russia's Ukraine invasion. Sorkin frames this as a pragmatic reversal—Biden embracing Trump's transactional diplomacy approach through the Abraham Accords framework. The visit signals how geopolitical and economic pressures are reshaping U.S. foreign policy priorities.

DealBook: Will China go after Taiwan?

The Biden administration is increasingly anxious about potential Chinese military action against Taiwan, particularly concerns about blockading the Taiwan Strait. Sorkin reports on internal U.S. worries over House Speaker Pelosi's planned Taiwan visit and explores alternative diplomatic approaches, emphasizing the far-reaching economic consequences any escalation would trigger for global business.

DealBook: Pelosi means business

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan despite Chinese threats, signaling U.S. commitment to democracy and discussing semiconductor manufacturing with TSMC leadership. The trip highlighted geopolitical tensions around Taiwan and the economic implications of the recently passed CHIPS Act, with potential business retaliation from China affecting supply chains and trade.

DealBook: Goodbye, China; hello, Vietnam

Apple and other major U.S. tech firms are beginning to shift manufacturing away from China to Vietnam and other countries, driven by geopolitical tensions, COVID lockdowns, and Taiwan concerns. While the moves remain modest, they signal a significant remapping of global supply chains away from China's dominance. Notably, despite reshoring rhetoric, few jobs are returning to the U.S.

DealBook: The Zelensky plan

Ukraine's government announced a $750 billion reconstruction plan and is actively soliciting private sector investment, with President Zelensky meeting Larry Fink and other executives. Prime Minister Shmyhal told DealBook the country plans to create an investment fund seeded by confiscated Russian assets and is exploring war insurance mechanisms to protect private capital deployed during ongoing conflict. This represents an unprecedented effort to blend public recovery with private capital markets in a wartime reconstruction scenario.

DealBook: “Sabotage”

Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines ruptured in the Baltic Sea in what EU officials suspect was Russian sabotage, with Gazprom threatening to shut down remaining gas flows to Western Europe. The escalation sent natural gas prices up 20% and triggered a sell-off in European stocks and euro weakness. Sorkin frames this as a critical energy crisis with geopolitical and market implications heading into winter.

DealBook: Xi’s blueprint for China

Keith Bradsher analyzes Xi Jinping's expected consolidation of power at China's Communist Party congress, examining how his third term could reshape economic policy amid a property market crisis and Covid lockdowns. Sorkin's angle highlights the tension between Xi's state-led ideology and China's economic deterioration, with implications for global markets and trade. This matters because China's policy direction affects multinational corporations, supply chains, and geopolitical stability.

DealBook: Biden-Xi bounce

President Biden and Xi Jinping held their first face-to-face meeting at the G20 summit in Bali, signaling potential détente between the U.S. and China after months of escalating tensions. Global markets responded positively, with Asian tech stocks surging and U.S. futures gaining as investors welcomed signs of renewed bilateral dialogue on climate, health, and food security. Sorkin frames this as a rare bright spot amid broader concerns about Ukraine, recession, and energy crises, though he notes deep divisions remain unresolved.

DealBook: TikTok’s terrible day in Congress

TikTok CEO Shou Chew faced nearly five hours of aggressive bipartisan questioning in Congress about the company's China ties, with lawmakers unconvinced by his denials of government control. The hearing underscored the company's precarious position amid U.S.-China tensions and the Biden administration's push for a forced sale or ban. Sorkin frames this as a pivotal moment that dimmed TikTok's prospects for operating freely in the U.S.

DealBook: Europe’s rethink on China

Macron and von der Leyen visit Beijing to pursue Ukraine mediation while Europe charts a middle path between U.S. isolation and economic engagement with China. The EU's "de-risk" strategy diverges from Biden's harder decoupling approach, reflecting Europe's attempt to balance security concerns with economic interests as Xi's stance on Russia becomes a key test of future relations.

DealBook: A Saudi oil ‘lollipop’; a growing China divide

Saudi Arabia announced a unilateral one-million-barrel-per-day production cut to prop up sagging oil prices (Brent crude at $77 vs. $120 a year prior), but the move exposed deep fractures within OPEC Plus over production quotas. Sorkin highlights how Riyadh is acting independently to manage global energy markets while other producers like the UAE gain concessions, signaling shifting power dynamics in the cartel.

DealBook: Saudi Arabia’s golf deal drives big ambitions; behind Sequoia’s split

The PGA Tour's surprise merger with LIV Golf, backed by Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund, represents far more than a sports story—it signals the kingdom's growing influence as a global business power and geopolitical player. Sorkin examines how covert negotiations between rivals, facilitated by elite advisers like Wachtell's Ed Herlihy and banker Michael Klein, culminated in a framework agreement that gives Saudi Arabia significant control over professional golf and extends its sports investment strategy beyond traditional boundaries.

DealBook: Saudi money

Sorkin examines Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF) and its outsized influence on global deal-making, particularly following the shock LIV Golf-PGA Tour merger announcement. The piece explores PIF's sports investments across golf, Formula 1, and soccer while questioning which sport could be next, despite the kingdom's human rights concerns that previously deterred deals like Endeavor's $400M divestment post-Khashoggi.

DealBook: Saudis shop for deals in Paris; I.P.O.s get a boost

Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and a large contingent of investors descended on Paris's VivaTech conference to signal the kingdom's aggressive deal-making ambitions, backed by $3.2 trillion in planned investments by 2030. Sorkin reports on the "operation of seduction"—a coordinated effort to attract Western business partners and diversify beyond oil, leveraging the PGA-LIV Golf merger as a recent example of Saudi capital's growing influence. The story captures a pivotal moment in global capital flows and geopolitical economic strategy.

DealBook: The money behind “Putin’s chef”; Ryan Reynolds’s Formula 1 bet

Sorkin analyzes Yevgeny Prigozhin's failed mutiny against Putin and the financial implications for global markets, examining how the Kremlin may dismantle his multimillion-dollar enterprise. The piece connects geopolitical instability to commodity market volatility and inflation pressures. Also covers Ryan Reynolds/RedBird's Formula 1 investment and Big Law's expansion into Saudi Arabia.

DealBook: A.I. chip wars; central bankers confab

The Biden administration is considering new restrictions on exporting AI semiconductors to China, potentially requiring licenses for lower-end chips like Nvidia's A800 that were designed to skirt earlier export controls. Sorkin reports on the geopolitical and commercial stakes—the move reflects U.S. concerns about China's military AI capabilities while immediately pressuring chipmaker stocks. The decision signals an escalating tech competition between superpowers with real market consequences.

DealBook: The global battle over deep-sea mining

The International Seabed Authority missed a deadline to establish regulatory rules for deep-sea mining, allowing companies to apply for licenses before frameworks are finalized. Sorkin explores the geopolitical divide between nations wanting to pause mining due to environmental concerns (Canada, France, Germany) and those pushing ahead (China, Norway, Russia), while companies like The Metals Company prepare applications to exploit seabed resources for EV battery metals. The piece highlights a regulatory vacuum that could have significant environmental and economic consequences.

DealBook: Doing business in China gets harder

The Biden administration announced new restrictions on U.S. private equity and venture capital investments in Chinese high-tech sectors (quantum computing, AI, semiconductors) to prevent military applications. The move reflects escalating U.S.-China tensions and comes as major Western firms like Dentons exit China amid economic headwinds including deflation and collapsing trade. Sorkin frames this as a pivotal moment forcing global businesses to recalibrate their China strategies.

DealBook: Biden’s commerce chief walks a tightrope in China

Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, a Beijing hawk, begins a high-stakes China tour aimed at preserving U.S.-China economic relations while defending tech restrictions. Sorkin examines the delicate diplomatic balancing act as the fourth senior U.S. official to visit China in three months, with focus on semiconductor controls and national security versus trade relationship stability. The visit signals the Biden administration's attempt to manage escalating tech competition without full economic decoupling.

DealBook: Oil’s surge drives new talks with old foes

Brent crude surged to $90/barrel (up 25% since June) after Saudi Arabia and Russia extended production cuts through year-end, with hints of deeper cuts ahead. Sorkin analyzes how OPEC+ production strategy is reshaping global markets, inflation risks, and diplomatic dynamics—particularly how higher oil prices may force Western governments to negotiate with traditional adversaries. The piece examines both upside potential ($100/barrel) and downside risks (China's weak economy, global recession concerns).

DealBook: Apple’s China conundrum

China reportedly extended a ban on iPhones for government workers and state-owned enterprises, triggering Apple's largest single-day stock drop in a month. Sorkin explores the broader implications: if Apple—one of the world's most successful operators in China—faces geopolitical pressure, what does this mean for all Western companies operating there? The piece examines Apple's precarious dependence on China for both manufacturing and revenue (~20% of total sales).

DealBook: The costs of a new war

Following the October 7 Hamas attacks on Israel, Sorkin assesses the immediate economic and geopolitical fallout including oil price spikes, Israeli market disruptions, and implications for U.S. foreign policy priorities like Israel-Saudi normalization. The piece connects military escalation to concrete financial consequences—currency intervention, market closures, supply chain concerns—while flagging broader risks to global stability and congressional gridlock.

DealBook: Middle East turmoil puts investors on edge

President Biden arrived in Israel for diplomatic talks with Netanyahu as a Gaza hospital blast killed dozens, complicating efforts to prevent regional escalation. Sorkin frames this through an investor lens—highlighting how geopolitical tensions threaten markets and the fragile global economy, with Iran now calling for an oil embargo on Israel. The piece captures real-time diplomatic crisis management and its direct financial implications.

DealBook: Middle East turmoil threatens global growth

Sorkin reports on Biden's $100 billion aid package request for Israel and Ukraine amid escalating Middle East conflict, with the Fed warning of economic risks including oil price spikes and market volatility. The newsletter also breaks that NBA All-Star Andre Iguodala is retiring to pursue venture capital, a notable career pivot in the sports-to-tech trend.

DealBook: A Biden-Xi reset?

President Biden and Xi Jinping are meeting in San Francisco to establish a "floor" under deteriorating U.S.-China relations following the spy balloon incident. Sorkin emphasizes that both sides are framing engagement as "derisking" rather than decoupling, with U.S. officials highlighting the $700 billion trading relationship and economic interdependence. The summit signals business leaders' hopes for reduced tensions despite ongoing trade disputes and Taiwan concerns.

DealBook: Biden and Xi’s baby steps

President Biden and Xi Jinping held their first face-to-face meeting in a year, achieving modest agreements on military communications, climate change, and fentanyl production while disagreeing sharply on semiconductor export controls and Middle East diplomacy. Sorkin frames the summit as a pragmatic effort to prevent economic decoupling despite deep tensions, highlighting that both sides recognize the costs of escalation. The meeting signals that despite geopolitical friction, business and economic ties remain too valuable for either power to abandon.

DealBook: Shein’s big tests

Fast-fashion retailer Shein filed confidentially for an IPO while attempting to distance itself from China through corporate restructuring, relocation, and lobbying efforts. However, the company faces significant political headwinds, including accusations of forced labor and sourcing from Xinjiang, with lawmakers like Senator Marco Rubio remaining skeptical of its rebranding efforts. Sorkin examines whether Shein can overcome geopolitical tensions and supply chain concerns to successfully go public.

DealBook: The Suez risk to global trade

Houthi rebel attacks on ships in the Red Sea and Suez Canal are forcing major shipping companies like Maersk and BP to reroute vessels around Africa, adding weeks to transit times and raising oil/shipping costs. The U.S. is deploying a multinational naval force to protect merchant traffic through this critical chokepoint that handles 12% of global trade. Sorkin highlights the real economic consequences: supply chain delays, price pressures, and the fragility of global commerce infrastructure.

DealBook: Kissing the ring

Saudi Arabia's Future Investment Initiative conference in Miami drew major U.S. executives and celebrities despite the crown prince's absence, demonstrating how effectively the kingdom has rehabilitated its image post-Khashoggi murder. Sorkin examines the willingness of corporate leaders to engage with Mohammed bin Salman's regime in exchange for investment opportunities, highlighting the tension between ethical concerns and financial incentives. The piece reveals how geopolitical power and petrodollar influence shape American business relationships.

DealBook: Is China’s high-growth era over?

China set a 5% growth target matching last year's goal, but the absence of a major stimulus package signals Beijing is abandoning its old infrastructure-heavy model. Sorkin examines what this means for Western companies like Apple, whose Chinese iPhone sales have plummeted, and argues investors must accept slower growth as China's new reality.

DealBook: DealBook: The ByteDance investors’ dilemma

With Congress pushing TikTok's Chinese parent ByteDance to divest, U.S. investors holding billions in stakes face mounting pressure as Beijing signals opposition to any sale. Sorkin reports on potential bidders including former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and ex-Activision CEO Bobby Kotick, while existing investors like Susquehanna weigh their options in an increasingly uncertain regulatory environment. The piece captures a pivotal moment in tech-geopolitics where financial interests collide with national security concerns.

DealBook: Rising oil stokes inflation worries

Brent crude surged past $91/barrel amid Middle East tensions, with JPMorgan forecasting $100+ by September. Sorkin examines the ripple effects: inflation risks for the Fed, political headwinds for Biden ahead of elections, and rising gas prices entering summer driving season. The piece connects geopolitical risk to monetary policy and consumer economics.

DealBook: A.I. diplomacy shakes up the Gulf

Microsoft's $1.5 billion investment in Emirati AI company G42 represents a Biden administration strategy to counter Chinese tech influence in the Gulf region. The deal includes G42 removing Chinese equipment like Huawei from its systems and committing to Microsoft's Azure cloud services, effectively bringing a strategically important AI player into the U.S. sphere of influence. Sorkin frames this as geopolitical competition disguised as a corporate transaction, highlighting how tech deals now serve as instruments of great power competition.

DealBook: Congress ramps up the pressure on TikTok

Speaker Mike Johnson bundled TikTok divestment legislation into a foreign aid package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, forcing Senate action on the contentious bill. Sorkin reports on the legislative maneuver's unusual tactics and reveals new details about TikTok's origin involving Republican donor Jeff Yass's firm, while major U.S. investors like Sequoia Capital and General Atlantic face potential losses from forced divestment.

DealBook: Hitting China harder

President Biden announced sweeping new tariffs on $18 billion in Chinese imports, quadrupling duties on EVs to 100%, doubling rates on solar cells and semiconductors to 50%, and raising tariffs on batteries and steel/aluminum. Sorkin examines whether these measures—building on Trump-era policies Biden once criticized—can actually rebuild American industrial capacity or merely appeal to battleground state voters ahead of the election.

DealBook: Tariff dodging

As both Biden and Trump campaign on protectionist trade policies, Sorkin examines how companies—particularly Chinese firms like Huawei—circumvent tariffs through gray-market channels and workarounds. Trade experts argue tariffs fail to achieve their intended goals while risking inflation and economic slowdown. The piece challenges the effectiveness of America-first trade policy regardless of who wins the 2024 election.

DealBook: Weaponized products

Sorkin examines how the weaponized pager/walkie-talkie attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon expose critical vulnerabilities in global supply chains, arguing that complexity creates both operational risks and security threats. The piece connects pandemic-era supply chain disruptions to a new concern: the potential for deliberate sabotage embedded in complex manufacturing networks. This analysis suggests companies and governments will likely accelerate efforts to shorten and simplify supply chains.

DealBook: The economic costs of a new war

Following Iran's ballistic missile attack on Israel and Netanyahu's vow of retaliation, oil markets are volatile with Brent crude up 3% to $75/barrel amid fears of regional war disrupting energy supplies. Sorkin contextualizes the economic stakes by comparing current tensions to April's missile exchange and the Oct. 7 attacks, noting markets have weathered previous Middle East shocks. The piece also covers VP debate economic commentary and Nike's earnings, providing broader economic context beyond the geopolitical crisis.

DealBook: “A constellation of risks”

Following Iran's ballistic missile attack on Israel and Biden's comments about potential strikes on Iranian oil facilities, markets are finally pricing in geopolitical risk after months of complacency. Brent crude posted its biggest weekly gain in over a year, signaling investor concern about supply disruptions and broader regional conflict. Sorkin examines how corporate strategists are reassessing exposure to Middle East escalation after the market largely ignored the risk since October 7.

DealBook: The Trump trade doubters

The post-election market rally is accelerating on expectations of Trump tax cuts and deregulation, but Wall Street economists warn his tariff and tax plans could reignite inflation and worsen the deficit. Sorkin highlights the tension between market euphoria and bond market concerns about debt financing costs, suggesting economic constraints may force Trump to reconsider his agenda despite current optimism.

DealBook: Dollar diplomacy

Trump issued an ultimatum to BRICS nations, threatening 100% tariffs if they create alternative currencies or abandon the dollar, escalating currency war rhetoric. The dollar rallied on expectations of his inflationary tariff agenda, while the Kremlin dismissed the threat as counterproductive. Sorkin frames this as a critical test of Trump's economic nationalism and its potential to destabilize global trade.

DealBook: Meltdown

Markets plunged with the S&P 500 posting its worst day since 2020 as tariff uncertainty escalates, with Beijing announcing retaliatory 34% levies on U.S. imports. Sorkin examines the cascading effects on sectors like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors while flagging today's jobs report as a critical test of economic resilience amid recession fears. The piece captures a pivotal moment where trade policy directly threatens market stability and growth prospects.

DealBook: China, chips and trade tensions

Nvidia took a $5.5 billion write-down due to new U.S. restrictions on China chip shipments, triggering broader market concerns as Trump's trade war escalates with permit requirements and tariff investigations. Sorkin examines how semiconductor companies are caught in the crossfire of U.S.-China tensions, with ripple effects across tech and defense sectors. The piece signals this is a critical moment in Trump's trade strategy with lasting implications for global supply chains.

DealBook: Too big to tariff?

As Washington and Beijing show signs of de-escalating their trade clash, markets rally on hopes of tariff relief on key sectors like aerospace and autos. However, Sorkin argues the psychological damage to business confidence may already be done, with companies permanently restructuring supply chains regardless of near-term tariff outcomes. The piece explores whether certain industries are becoming "too big to tariff" and thus exempt from escalation.

DealBook: Apple’s $900 million tariff worry

Apple and Amazon beat Q1 earnings expectations, but executives warn of significant tariff impacts ahead—Apple alone could face $900M in costs this quarter despite securing exemptions on iPhones. Sorkin examines how even the most powerful tech giants are vulnerable to Trump's escalating trade war, with the real damage likely to appear in upcoming quarters as tariff effects compound.

DealBook: Inside the U.S.-China trade détente

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a major temporary breakthrough in U.S.-China trade negotiations, with the U.S. cutting tariffs from 145% to 30% and China reducing duties from 125% to 10%. Markets surged on the news, though significant trade barriers remain and the framework expires in 90 days, requiring further negotiations. Sorkin emphasizes this signals both sides want to avoid full decoupling despite ongoing tensions over sector-specific tariffs.

DealBook: Powell catches a break

Jay Powell's cautious stance on interest rates is being validated after the U.S.-China tariff truce reduces recession fears and inflation concerns. Market expectations for Fed rate cuts have plummeted from five to two annually, aligning with the Fed's March forecast that had been widely questioned. The trade détente removes pressure on the Fed to cut rates to support the economy, positioning Powell as prescient despite recent criticism from Trump and Wall Street.

DealBook: War inflation

Israel launched major strikes against Iran's nuclear program overnight, killing top officials and prompting Iranian retaliation threats. Sorkin examines the geopolitical escalation and immediate economic fallout—oil prices spiking 7%, airline disruptions, and broader market turmoil across Asia and Europe. The piece connects military conflict to real business impact, from energy costs to supply chain disruptions.

DealBook: Will tariffs ding earnings?

As earnings season heats up, Wall Street braces for tariff impacts on corporate profits despite initial optimism. GM reported $1.1B in tariff-related profit losses, with Coca-Cola and other bellwethers expected to face similar pressures this week. Sorkin examines whether trade war fears will finally materialize in guidance and whether the market's record highs can hold amid policy uncertainty.

Breaking news: U.S. employers pulled back on hiring in July, adding 73,000 jobs

U.S. job creation slowed significantly in July with only 73,000 new positions added, while prior months' figures were revised downward, signaling potential labor market weakness. This data arrives amid Trump administration tariff announcements, creating uncertainty about economic momentum. The report matters because it could influence Federal Reserve policy decisions and investor confidence in the broader economy.

DealBook: Northern exposure

President Trump meets Putin in Alaska amid reports the U.S. may take a direct equity stake in Intel, marking a potential shift toward industrial policy. Sorkin examines the tension between government intervention (Chips Act subsidies, potential shareholding) and free-market capitalism, questioning whether this signals broader protectionism that trading partners may emulate. The summit's outcome could reshape energy markets, sanctions regimes, and U.S.-Russia business relations.

DealBook: Markets vs. reality

Sorkin examines the paradox of a surging S&P 500 (up 35% since April) amid multiple economic risks including government shutdown, trade war escalation, and credit market turbulence. He questions whether the rally can sustain through earnings season as tariff costs begin materializing in corporate results. The piece also covers AWS outage fallout and a cybersecurity deal scoop.

DealBook: Rise of an antitrust pioneer

The Biden administration is expected to nominate legal scholar Lina Khan to the Federal Trade Commission, a move that signals a significant shift toward aggressive antitrust enforcement. Khan, known for her influential law school paper criticizing Amazon's monopoly practices and her leadership in "hipster antitrust" theory, would bring a progressive voice focused on how market power affects workers and citizens beyond just consumers. Her nomination reflects the administration's intention to challenge tech giants and represents a meaningful departure from previous antitrust orthodoxy.

DealBook: Jack Ma takes a big hit

Chinese regulators imposed a record $2.8 billion antitrust fine on Alibaba for locking merchants into its platform, the largest penalty in Chinese history and nearly 3x the previous record. Sorkin frames this as a watershed moment signaling Beijing's willingness to rein in tech giants and reshape competitive dynamics in China's internet sector. The move carries broader implications for Jack Ma's empire and serves as a warning to other Chinese tech companies facing increased regulatory scrutiny.

DealBook: A bruising day for Big Tech

Lina Khan's FTC confirmation hearing and Senate judiciary committee hearings on Apple and Google's app store practices signal intensifying regulatory pressure on Big Tech. Sorkin captures a pivotal moment when bipartisan momentum against tech dominance is building, with Khan signaling aggressive antitrust enforcement and companies like Spotify and Match Group detailing competitive harms. This represents a significant policy shift with lasting implications for how tech platforms operate.

DealBook: An Epic decision looms for Apple

Apple is defending itself in federal court against Epic Games' claims that it abuses monopoly power through unfair App Store commissions. Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers expects to rule by mid-August. Sorkin frames this as a potential dress rehearsal for future antitrust cases, with the outcome likely to influence broader tech regulation regardless of the verdict.

DealBook: A big day for Amazon

Amazon's annual shareholder meeting features three major developments overshadowing strong profits: a reported $9 billion MGM acquisition bid (including James Bond rights), shareholder proposals management opposes, and a newly filed antitrust lawsuit. Sorkin highlights the regulatory complexity, particularly Lina Khan's FTC nomination and her prior criticism of Amazon's market practices, which could affect MGM approval and broader antitrust scrutiny.

DealBook: Here come the trustbusters

The DOJ filed its first antitrust action under Biden, blocking the $30B Aon-Willis Towers Watson merger as anticompetitive. Simultaneously, 32-year-old Lina Khan was sworn in as FTC chair, signaling an aggressive new enforcement regime against Big Tech and corporate consolidation. Sorkin highlights rare bipartisan consensus on trustbusting as a defining policy shift.

DealBook: The case against Facebook

A federal judge threw out antitrust lawsuits against Facebook filed by the FTC and 40+ states, ruling the government failed to adequately define the relevant market and establish monopoly claims. Sorkin analyzes the ruling's implications for Big Tech regulation, highlighting the legal hurdles regulators must overcome to challenge tech giants. The decision represents a significant setback for efforts to rein in Facebook's market power through antitrust action.

DealBook: A tough antitrust trio takes shape

The White House nominated Jonathan Kanter, a longtime Big Tech critic and Paul Weiss lawyer, to lead the Justice Department's antitrust division, completing Biden's aggressive trustbusting team alongside FTC Chair Lina Khan and NEC advisor Tim Wu. Kanter's confirmation would position him to oversee major cases against Google and Apple while the administration pushes sweeping antitrust legislation. This represents a significant policy shift toward aggressive enforcement against tech monopolies.

DealBook: Biden’s trustbusters claim a victory

Aon scrapped its $30 billion acquisition of Willis Towers Watson after the Justice Department sued to block the merger, marking the Biden administration's first major antitrust victory. Rather than fight a lengthy legal battle with a November trial date, Aon paid a $1 billion termination fee and withdrew, signaling that aggressive antitrust enforcement alone—without winning in court—can deter large deals. Sorkin explores how the administration's willingness to challenge consolidation, backed by Big Tech critics, is reshaping M&A strategy even before litigation concludes.

DealBook: Apple settles rather than fights

Apple settled a lawsuit with small app developers, agreeing to allow external payment method promotion, freeze commissions for 3 years, and create a $100M developer fund. Sorkin analyzes this as a strategic move by Apple to preempt regulatory action while maintaining core control, positioning itself as more cooperative than competitors. The settlement reflects broader antitrust pressure on Big Tech's app ecosystem dominance.

DealBook: What is Apple thinking?

Apple announced it would allow apps like Netflix and Spotify to direct users to external payment methods, bypassing its 30% commission—a second major concession in a week. Sorkin reports this is a calculated strategic retreat designed to appease global regulators while protecting Apple's core $20 billion App Store revenue from more damaging antitrust action. The moves suggest Apple is making small sacrifices to prevent larger regulatory threats that could fundamentally undermine its business model.

DealBook: Why Apple didn’t lose

A federal judge ruled that while Apple engaged in anticompetitive practices, it is not a monopoly—a split decision that allowed both Apple and Epic to claim victory. Sorkin argues the market's initial negative reaction to Apple's stock was overblown, noting Apple's own satisfaction with the ruling and Epic's immediate appeal suggest the decision was largely favorable to Big Tech. The case has major implications for app store economics and developer commissions across the industry.

DealBook: What could go wrong

After a record $5.8 trillion in M&A transactions in 2021, deal makers expect a significant slowdown in 2022 due to emerging headwinds. Sorkin examines three major factors threatening the deal boom, with antitrust enforcement emerging as the primary concern for bankers and lawyers. The piece provides forward-looking analysis of how macro conditions could reshape the M&A landscape after an unprecedented year.

DealBook: The new Frontier in antitrust

Frontier Airlines announced a $2.9 billion acquisition of budget rival Spirit Airlines, with both companies claiming the merger would lower fares, create jobs, and improve service. Sorkin frames this as a major test case for the Biden administration's aggressive antitrust enforcement, which has already begun challenging airline alliances and other consolidation deals. The deal highlights the tension between industry arguments for efficiency gains and regulators' skepticism that airline mergers ultimately reduce competition and raise consumer prices.

DealBook: A big swing at Big Tech

The European Union approved the Digital Markets Act, landmark legislation targeting "gatekeeper platforms" like Apple, Google, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft with market values exceeding €75 billion. The law aims to prevent these companies from using their dominant positions to lock in users and crush competitors, potentially forcing changes to app stores, advertising, and messaging services. Sorkin frames this as part of Europe's aggressive regulatory one-two punch against Big Tech, with implications extending beyond Europe globally.

DealBook: The last major airline deal?

JetBlue's $3.6B all-cash bid for Spirit Airlines outbids Frontier's earlier offer, triggering a major test of how antitrust regulators evaluate airline consolidation. Sorkin highlights how modern trustbusters now weigh factors beyond market share—including inflation, wages, and economic inequality—making regulatory certainty as important as deal price. This signals a fundamental shift in M&A strategy where antitrust risk reshapes bidding dynamics.

DealBook: Jassy’s imprint on Amazon

Andy Jassy is reshaping Amazon's strategy after taking over from Jeff Bezos, including increased Washington engagement (3+ visits in first year vs. Bezos's avoidance), deeper operational involvement, cost-cutting, and a more conciliatory tone with employees while maintaining union opposition. Sorkin highlights how the new CEO is departing from Bezos's playbook on lobbying and antitrust relations with lawmakers. This signals a strategic shift for one of the world's most influential tech companies during a period of heightened regulatory scrutiny.

DealBook: The Supreme Court’s business docket

The Supreme Court's new term includes significant cases on its business docket that could reshape corporate regulation, particularly cases challenging the FTC and SEC's constitutional authority and limiting administrative agencies' power. Sorkin highlights how these cases, overshadowed by high-profile disputes on affirmative action and voting rights, could have major implications for how companies are regulated and conduct diversity hiring. The court's recent skepticism toward administrative agencies suggests potential restrictions on regulatory power.

DealBook: Meta wakes the bulls

Meta's better-than-expected Q4 earnings and $40B buyback announcement sparked a 20% premarket surge, signaling investor relief that Big Tech is serious about cost discipline. Sorkin frames this as potentially validating a broader tech sector recovery narrative, with digital advertising demand stabilizing after steep 2022 declines. The story matters because Meta's performance could set tone for earnings season and indicate whether macro headwinds are easing for ad-dependent tech giants.

DealBook: The new antitrust

Microsoft's $70 billion Activision acquisition faces coordinated scrutiny from U.S., EU, and UK antitrust regulators working in concert. Sorkin's team reveals how the FTC strategically chose its own administrative court over federal court, timing its move to align with Europe's slower review process. This signals a new era of coordinated global antitrust enforcement that could reshape M&A deal-making.

DealBook: Fractures at the F.T.C.

Republican FTC Commissioner Christine Wilson announced her resignation in a scathing Wall Street Journal op-ed, accusing Chair Lina Khan of "lawlessness" and departing to avoid legitimizing her leadership. Wilson is the second Republican commissioner to quit recently, leaving Khan with a unified Democratic majority and no internal opposition on antitrust enforcement decisions. The shift signals a major power consolidation at the agency during a period of aggressive merger scrutiny and represents a significant moment in the ongoing ideological battle over antitrust policy.

DealBook: Jet blues

The Justice Department plans to sue to block JetBlue's $3.8 billion acquisition of Spirit Airways, citing excessive consolidation in an already-troubled airline industry. JetBlue argues the deal would benefit consumers through lower fares and improved service, but prosecutors contend blocking is the only remedy. This represents a major antitrust enforcement action in a politically sensitive industry.

DealBook: Game over for Microsoft-Activision?

Britain's Competition and Markets Authority blocked Microsoft's $69 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard, citing concerns that the deal would give Microsoft excessive control over cloud gaming. The decision represents a major setback for the deal, which already faced FTC opposition, and signals that regulatory hurdles may prove insurmountable despite Microsoft's concessions. This is a landmark moment in tech M&A, with implications for how regulators globally will scrutinize big tech consolidation.

DealBook: Deal makers get a reality check

The UK's Competition and Markets Authority blocked Microsoft's $69 billion Activision Blizzard acquisition, surprising deal makers who expected approval. Sorkin analyzes how the decision reflects a broader shift toward more assertive global regulators willing to challenge major M&A transactions, particularly on antitrust grounds. The ruling signals that deal makers face a significantly more challenging regulatory landscape as they attempt to revive the stalled M&A market.

DealBook: Microsoft’s European test

European antitrust regulators were expected to approve Microsoft's $69 billion Activision Blizzard acquisition on May 15, diverging sharply from UK and US rejections. The EU's approval, contingent on Microsoft's commitments to license games to competitors, highlights a fragmented global regulatory landscape for tech M&A. This creates significant uncertainty for how major tech deals will be evaluated across jurisdictions going forward.

DealBook: Icahn v. Illumina, Twitter’s glitchy night, Nvidia’s A.I. blastoff

Carl Icahn's activist campaign against Illumina's board comes to a shareholder vote today, centered on the company's troubled $7B Grail acquisition that regulators blocked and has cost shareholders $50B in market value. Sorkin frames this as a test case for activist investor power, antitrust enforcement coordination, and new proxy voting rules reshaping corporate governance. The newsletter also covers Twitter's technical failures during a major event and Nvidia's AI-driven stock surge.

DealBook: Lina Khan vs. Amazon; Powell pessimism hits markets

The FTC under Lina Khan filed a major lawsuit against Amazon alleging deceptive practices in Prime enrollment and cancellation, marking Khan's first direct action against her longtime antitrust target, though the case focuses on consumer protection rather than monopoly power. Sorkin explores whether this signals Khan's broader antitrust ambitions against Amazon and examines how Fed Chair Powell's hawkish comments simultaneously sent stocks down and Bitcoin up, revealing market fragmentation. The piece also flags emerging U.S.-China tensions over cloud computing as part of the digital cold war.

DealBook: Threads, Big Tech and antitrust

Meta's launch of Threads as a Twitter competitor creates a complex antitrust puzzle—while new competition is generally good for markets, Meta's existing dominance in social media and data collection raises concerns about unfair leverage. Sorkin explores how regulators must distinguish between legitimate product innovation and anticompetitive expansion, featuring analysis from Tim Wu on the conflicting policy instincts at play.

DealBook: What will Lina Khan do now?

A federal judge cleared Microsoft's $70 billion Activision Blizzard acquisition, dealing a major blow to FTC Chair Lina Khan's aggressive antitrust strategy. The ruling suggests Khan's confrontational approach to blocking mergers may be backfiring, raising questions about the effectiveness of her regulatory philosophy. With the UK also signaling openness to settlement, the deal could close within days.

DealBook: New M.&A. guidelines; Moritz leaves Sequoia; Kardashian raises millions

The Justice Department and FTC released long-awaited merger guidelines under Lina Khan and Jonathan Kanter that maintain their aggressive antitrust stance despite recent court losses. The framework broadens deal evaluation criteria and includes legal footnotes to ground their progressive trustbusting approach in existing law, signaling regulators' intent to challenge more transactions under current statutes.

DealBook: A Warren-Graham team-up against Big Tech

Senators Elizabeth Warren and Lindsey Graham introduced bipartisan legislation to create a new Digital Consumer Protection Commission to oversee Big Tech platforms. The bill aims to rein in companies like Meta, Apple, and Amazon that collectively control nearly $10 trillion in market cap, though passage faces uncertainty given industry lobbying and regulatory complexity. This represents a rare bipartisan effort on tech policy, signaling growing congressional concern about platform power over privacy, free speech, and competition.

DealBook: The economy’s next test; luxury M.&A. is on trend

Sorkin examines whether today's PCE inflation data will validate the "soft landing" narrative, with implications for Fed rate decisions in September. The newsletter covers three substantive topics: inflation's trajectory, luxury sector M&A activity, and a new analysis of Biden's antitrust merger guidelines. This represents timely analysis of critical economic indicators affecting markets and policy.

DealBook: Lina Khan’s showdown with Amazon is here

The FTC and 17 states sued Amazon for allegedly using illegal monopolistic practices to maintain dominance in e-commerce, marking Lina Khan's first major antitrust action as FTC chair and a real-world test of her 2017 academic theories on tech regulation. The lawsuit immediately wiped $50 billion from Amazon's market value and seeks to prevent the company from forcing merchants into unfavorable terms on pricing, advertising, and logistics services. This case represents a landmark shift in antitrust enforcement against Big Tech and will have significant implications for how regulators approach platform dominance.

DealBook: Exxon eyes a mega-deal

Exxon Mobil is reportedly closing in on a $60 billion acquisition of shale producer Pioneer Natural Resources, marking the largest deal of 2023 and Exxon's biggest in 25 years. The deal signals a return to blockbuster M&A among cash-rich corporates and would consolidate U.S. oil production, though it faces potential antitrust scrutiny from Biden regulators. The newsletter also covers an SEC lawsuit against Elon Musk and lobbying efforts by chip makers over China trade restrictions.

DealBook: Microsoft beats the antitrust odds

Microsoft closed its $69 billion Activision Blizzard acquisition after UK regulators approved it, overcoming fierce opposition from U.S. and European antitrust authorities. Sorkin examines how the deal's approval despite aggressive enforcement under FTC Chair Lina Khan raises questions about the effectiveness of the antitrust crackdown on mega-deals. The outcome signals potential limits to regulators' ability to block major tech acquisitions.

DealBook: A new model for real estate brokers?

A federal jury found the National Association of Realtors and major brokerages conspired to keep agent commissions artificially high, awarding $1.8 billion in damages in what experts call a century-defining blow to the industry. Sorkin examines how the verdict—combined with pending lawsuits and regulatory scrutiny—will likely dismantle the current 5-6% commission structure that sellers effectively subsidize for both sides. The ruling threatens the NAR's control over multiple listing services and could fundamentally reshape how home transactions are priced.

DealBook: Agencies under attack

Meta filed a lawsuit alleging the FTC's structure is unconstitutional, part of a broader corporate campaign to weaken federal regulators including the SEC and IRS. The strategy exploits recent Supreme Court decisions restricting administrative power, representing a significant shift in how companies challenge enforcement—arguments that would have been dismissed as frivolous a decade ago. This could fundamentally reshape regulatory enforcement across multiple agencies.

DealBook: Google’s Epic setback

A jury found Google violated antitrust laws by maintaining monopolistic control over its Play Store and in-app billing system, handing Epic Games a major victory after years of litigation. This landmark ruling could fundamentally reshape the economics of mobile app distribution and represents a significant blow to Big Tech's market power. The decision contrasts with Apple's 2021 legal victory on similar charges and signals potential regulatory momentum against platform gatekeeping.

DealBook: Lina Khan’s big win

An appeals court sided with the FTC's aggressive enforcement strategy, forcing biotech company Illumina to divest cancer diagnostics firm Grail after a $7.1B acquisition. The ruling validates Khan's approach to vertical mergers and represents a significant regulatory victory after a challenging year for the agency. The decision signals courts are receptive to broader antitrust arguments about competition harm.

DealBook: What to watch in 2024

Sorkin previews a dozen major themes expected to dominate business and politics in 2024, including the Trump-Biden rematch, E.S.G. backlash, and emerging regulatory challenges. The piece examines how corporate leaders will navigate political polarization, employee activism, and strategic giving through PACs. This forward-looking analysis provides essential context for understanding the year's business landscape.

DealBook: On the ground of Biden’s antitrust agenda

Sorkin interviews Doha Mekki, the Justice Department's principal deputy assistant attorney general executing Biden's aggressive antitrust agenda, discussing major wins like blocking JetBlue-Spirit and the uncertainty facing dealmakers ahead of the 2024 election. The piece explores how enforcement philosophy could shift depending on who wins the presidency, with dealmakers reportedly holding transactions pending a potentially more lenient regulatory environment. This provides insider perspective on a consequential policy debate affecting M&A activity.

DealBook: Price war

The FTC and states sued to block Kroger's $25 billion acquisition of Albertsons, citing price and labor concerns—a move the Biden administration supports as it battles inflation perception ahead of elections. Sorkin connects the paradox of strong economic growth masking consumer pain on groceries, which dominates voter sentiment and approval ratings. The blockade reflects how antitrust enforcement has become intertwined with political messaging on cost-of-living.

DealBook: The Apple fight could redefine antitrust

The Justice Department filed an ambitious antitrust lawsuit against Apple targeting its ecosystem lock-in practices across five product categories, arguing the company profits by making competitors' products worse rather than improving its own. The case represents a significant escalation in regulatory scrutiny and could fundamentally reshape decades of antitrust precedent if successful. Sorkin also reports Michael Eisner's backing of Bob Iger against Nelson Peltz at Disney and examines shifting bank merger rules and China's AI leadership.

DealBook: Is the new Apple antitrust case ‘Microsoft 2.0’?

The Justice Department sued Apple for alleged monopolistic practices keeping customers locked into iPhones, drawing explicit parallels to its landmark 1998 Microsoft case. Sorkin examines whether this "Microsoft 2.0" comparison holds up and whether the DOJ can achieve similar results against Apple's ecosystem lock-in strategy. The case represents one of the most significant tech antitrust battles since the Clinton era.

DealBook: Regulators again force a Microsoft split

Microsoft is separating Teams from its Office suite globally, following EU pressure and complaints from rivals like Slack and Zoom about anticompetitive bundling. The move represents a significant concession to antitrust regulators examining Big Tech's market power, though it's unclear whether it will shield Microsoft from potential EU fines up to 10% of global revenue. This reflects the ongoing tension between tech giants' product integration strategies and regulatory enforcement.

DealBook: Getting paid

The NCAA reached a landmark $2.8 billion class-action settlement that would compensate student athletes for name, image and licensing rights—ending a century of amateurism rules. Starting fall 2025, schools could allocate ~$20M annually to athletes, with the settlement also providing $2.8B in back damages over 10 years. Sorkin examines the deal's significance as a major legal/business shift while noting concerns that smaller schools without major sports programs could face financial disadvantages.

DealBook: The middle man

Sorkin interviews DOJ antitrust chief Jonathan Kanter about Biden's aggressive antitrust enforcement, focusing on the emerging legal theory targeting "intermediary" companies that abuse their market position. The piece reveals dealmakers' anxiety about regulatory priorities before the election and highlights the Ticketmaster/Live Nation case as a template for future enforcement actions against middlemen like RealPage.

DealBook: Apple’s European headache

The EU formally charged Apple under its landmark Digital Markets Act for allegedly abusing App Store dominance through steering restrictions, excessive fees, and noncompliance issues. This is the first major enforcement action under the 2022 law targeting tech gatekeepers, with potential significant financial penalties and business model implications. The case signals aggressive EU regulation of Big Tech and sets precedent for similar investigations into Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft.

DealBook: Behind the Democratic fight over Lina Khan

Reid Hoffman's call for Kamala Harris to replace Lina Khan as FTC chair if elected sparked backlash from progressive Democrats, exposing deep divisions over antitrust enforcement. Sorkin explores how Khan's fate signals broader uncertainty about Harris's regulatory philosophy toward big business. The dispute highlights the tension between Silicon Valley donors and progressive activists within the Democratic coalition.

DealBook: Saying the quiet part out loud

Major Democratic donors and tech executives are publicly lobbying Vice President Kamala Harris to replace FTC Chair Lina Khan, marking a shift toward open advocacy after years of strained relations under Biden's aggressive antitrust enforcement. Figures like Barry Diller and Reid Hoffman are breaking with traditional behind-the-scenes lobbying to voice their concerns directly, signaling Wall Street's attempt to regain influence in a potential Harris administration. The story captures a significant tension within the Democratic coalition between pro-business interests and progressive antitrust enforcers.

DealBook: Google’s next big fight

A federal judge found Google abused its search monopoly through exclusive default agreements with Apple and Samsung, representing the biggest tech antitrust ruling in a generation. The decision threatens to disrupt Google's $74.6B revenue stream and sets up a remedies hearing in September that could reshape Big Tech competition. Sorkin examines the immediate implications and likely appeals while signaling this case will have industry-wide consequences.

DealBook: Getting tougher on banks

The F.D.I.C. board is expected to vote on stricter guidelines for evaluating bank mergers, expanding scrutiny beyond deposit concentration to include small-business lending impacts and systemic interconnectedness. The Justice Department is simultaneously planning its own overhaul of antitrust standards for banking deals, marking a significant regulatory shift that could reshape M&A activity in the sector. This represents substantive policy change with direct implications for future deal-making in financial services.

DealBook: Intel’s chips on the table

Qualcomm made an informal takeover approach for Intel while Apollo Global Management offered a major investment, signaling the chipmaker's dramatic decline from its former dominance. Sorkin analyzes the obstacles to a Qualcomm deal—financing challenges, foundry business uncertainty, and significant antitrust concerns—while noting the Biden administration's stakes in Intel's domestic manufacturing agenda. The competing proposals highlight how far Intel has fallen and the complexity of potential restructuring.

DealBook: Is Visa a monopoly?

The Biden administration is filing an antitrust lawsuit against Visa, accusing it of illegal monopolistic practices in payment processing—specifically punishing merchants and fintech firms who use competing services. This represents a major enforcement action targeting a foundational financial infrastructure company and reflects the administration's broader push against corporate "middlemen." The case could reshape how payment networks operate and affect billions in transaction flows.

DealBook: Inside Harris’s big economic pitch

Vice President Kamala Harris delivered a major economic speech in Pittsburgh positioning herself as a defender of the middle class and small business while contrasting with Trump's "new American industrialism." Sorkin covers the high stakes of the address in a tight polling race, Harris's effort to distance herself from progressive concerns about antitrust, and her policy proposals on housing, corporate taxes, and small business support. The piece matters because economic messaging is central to the 2024 election and reveals how Harris is navigating business community concerns.

DealBook: The dish

DirecTV and Dish are in advanced merger negotiations, marking a second attempt at a deal the U.S. government blocked in 2002. Sorkin examines how the competitive landscape has shifted dramatically—streaming has decimated traditional TV with 30 million customer losses—making the antitrust case more complex than two decades ago. The piece includes an interview with outgoing FTC Chair Lina Khan about her aggressive antitrust stance, adding regulatory context to the deal's prospects.

DealBook: Rethinking A.I. rules

Gov. Newsom vetoed S.B. 1047, California's landmark A.I. safety bill, after pressure from Silicon Valley, leaving the regulatory landscape uncertain. Sorkin examines the fundamental tension between protecting the public from A.I. risks and preserving innovation, while also covering Trump's antitrust threats against Google and DirecTV's bid for Dish. The veto signals that major tech regulation will remain contentious and fragmented across jurisdictions.

DealBook: Making Google open up

A federal judge ruled that Google must allow third-party app stores on Android for three years, marking a major antitrust victory for Epic Games after years of legal battles. The decision represents a significant blow to Google's control over its app ecosystem and the 15-30% fees developers must pay, though it follows Epic's loss against Apple. This ruling could reshape how mobile app distribution works and sets precedent for tech platform regulation.

DealBook: Coming for Chrome

The Biden administration's antitrust enforcers are reportedly seeking to force Google to divest Chrome before leaving office, marking one of the most aggressive competition actions in years. Chrome's dominance (61% U.S. market share) makes it critical to Google's data collection and ad targeting capabilities, plus a gateway for AI services. The move sets up a test for Trump's antitrust stance when he takes office.

Breaking news: TikTok faces U.S. ban after losing bid to overturn new law

A federal appeals court upheld legislation requiring TikTok to divest from Chinese parent ByteDance or face a ban in the U.S., with enforcement potentially beginning mid-January 2025. This represents a major escalation in the years-long regulatory battle over the app's national security implications and foreign ownership. The ruling sets up a critical deadline for one of America's most popular social platforms and raises questions about forced asset sales, government power, and geopolitical tech competition.

DealBook: What Sundar Pichai told me

Sorkin interviews Google CEO Sundar Pichai at the DealBook Summit, where Pichai defends Google's competitive position in AI against rivals like Microsoft/OpenAI, citing advantages in compute, data, and talent (including two Nobel Prize winners). Pichai signals major changes coming to Google Search in 2025 and addresses broader questions about antitrust and the incoming Trump administration's tech policy stance.

DealBook: Spared

A federal judge ruled against breaking up Google despite finding it violated antitrust law, instead imposing remedies that ban exclusive search deals but allow default payments (like Apple's $20B annual deal). Sorkin highlights the ambiguity in the ruling—the distinction between "exclusive" and "default" arrangements is murky, potentially limiting the remedy's effectiveness in constraining Big Tech power.

DealBook: The issues with SPACs

Andrew Ross Sorkin examines the explosive growth of SPACs (special purpose acquisition companies), which raised a record $26 billion in January 2021 and now control ~$100 billion in cash seeking targets. Sorkin captures the frenzy through colorful reporting—including Bill Ackman's quip that "every friend is launching a SPAC"—and highlights the structural risk: 300+ SPACs imply $500 billion in potential acquisition firepower, raising questions about deal quality and investor protection. The piece presciently flags concerns about this blank-check boom at its peak, before subsequent regulatory scrutiny and market corrections.

DealBook: What Warren Buffett is buying

Berkshire Hathaway's 2020 results show Buffett shifting strategy away from mega-deals toward smaller investments and record $25B stock buybacks. Sorkin highlights Buffett's admission that his $37B Precision Castparts acquisition was a mistake, signaling a more cautious approach despite massive cash reserves. The shift reflects aging leadership and changing market conditions, with implications for how activist investors deploy capital.

DealBook Exclusive: Victoria’s Spinoff

L Brands decided to spin off Victoria's Secret as a separate public company rather than sell it, rejecting bids over $3 billion because it expects $5-7 billion valuation post-spinoff. The decision ends a pandemic-disrupted sale process that began with a $1.1 billion Sycamore Partners deal in early 2020, which collapsed amid retail upheaval and the brand's reputational challenges including ties to Jeffrey Epstein. Sorkin's exclusive reporting captures a major corporate restructuring decision with significant implications for both resulting companies.

DealBook: AT&T’s big breakup

AT&T announced it will spin off WarnerMedia and merge it with Discovery, reversing its transformative 2016 acquisition of Time Warner for $85 billion. The move signals the failure of AT&T's conglomerate strategy under former CEO Randall Stephenson to combine content creation with broadband/satellite distribution, leading to hundreds of billions in deal reversals. The new combined entity will be led by Discovery's David Zaslav and forecasts $52 billion in revenue with $3 billion in annual cost synergies.

DealBook: What’s next for AT&T

AT&T announced it would spin off and merge WarnerMedia with Discovery, reversing years of expensive media acquisitions under former CEO Randall Stephenson. Sorkin traces how three major deals—failed T-Mobile bid, DirectTV acquisition, and Time Warner purchase—drained resources and left AT&T struggling to compete in both telecom and streaming. The move signals a strategic reset, allowing AT&T to refocus on its core telecom business while creating a new streaming competitor.

DealBook: Another Apollo founder steps back

Josh Harris is relinquishing day-to-day duties at Apollo Global Management in January following internal power struggles with co-founder Leon Black over the CEO succession. Harris had pushed for Black's immediate removal due to reputational risks from Epstein ties, but lost to Marc Rowan, Black's preferred successor. The move consolidates Rowan's control of the major PE firm and marks a significant leadership transition at one of the industry's largest players.

DealBook: When Bob Iger calls ...

AT&T is unwinding its $100 billion Time Warner acquisition by spinning off WarnerMedia to merge with Discovery, reversing one of the decade's biggest media deals. Sorkin's reporting reveals that Disney's Bob Iger nearly acquired Time Warner in 2016 but called just weeks too late, missing a chance to reshape the media landscape entirely. The piece combines original reporting on behind-the-scenes negotiations with counterfactual analysis of how different timing could have created a vastly different media industry.

DealBook: Bill Ackman faces the music

Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Tontine SPAC is investing $4 billion for a 10% stake in Universal Music Group at a $42 billion valuation, marking the largest SPAC deal ever. The transaction is structurally complex—Universal will still go public separately in Amsterdam while SPAC investors receive shares later, with remaining capital flowing into a new SPARC vehicle. Sorkin breaks down the intricate financial engineering and explains why this deal signals how SPACs are evolving beyond traditional blank-check acquisition vehicles.

DealBook: Bill Ackman drops his big SPAC deal

Bill Ackman's $4 billion Pershing Square Tontine SPAC deal to invest in Universal Music Group collapsed after SEC regulatory concerns and shareholder skepticism. The original transaction was structured as a complex multi-layered deal involving a new acquisition fund and derivative instruments, which regulators questioned whether it even qualified as a legitimate SPAC transaction. Ackman will now buy the Universal Music stake directly through his hedge fund instead, leaving the SPAC to find a new target within 18 months.

DealBook: Bill Ackman pivots again

Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Tontine Holdings, a $4 billion SPAC, is in crisis after regulators rejected his Universal Music deal and a lawsuit challenged the SPAC's structure, prompting him to propose shutting down and returning cash to investors. Sorkin frames this as both a specific failure for Ackman's marquee blank-check vehicle and a symptom of broader regulatory backlash against the SPAC boom. The situation illustrates how even well-structured SPACs face existential threats from litigation and regulatory scrutiny.

DealBook: SPACs went up, then down, but not out

Kate Kelly examines the SPAC boom that exploded from 2020-2021, with over 600 blank-check companies raising $200 billion despite recent troubles and regulatory scrutiny. Sorkin's angle traces how SPACs evolved from Wall Street pariahs (circa 2015) to mainstream vehicles backed by prominent financiers like Bill Ackman and Michael Klein. The piece provides essential context on a major market phenomenon that reshaped capital formation and M&A activity during this period.

DealBook: Back on track

Canadian Pacific emerged victorious in a high-stakes bidding war to acquire Kansas City Southern, winning with a lower $29 billion offer than rival Canadian National's $33.7 billion bid by securing regulatory approval through a voting trust structure. The deal would create the first railroad operator spanning the U.S., Canada and Mexico, marking potentially the last major railroad consolidation. Sorkin frames this as a compelling dealmaking saga demonstrating how regulatory strategy and deal structure can trump pure price in M&A outcomes.

DealBook: A star-studded production

CAA is acquiring rival ICM Partners in a major consolidation that brings together two powerhouse talent rosters (Hanks, Spielberg, Rhimes, DeGeneres). Sorkin frames this as a defensive move by agencies facing pressure from tech giants and streaming platforms that have disrupted traditional talent economics and compensation models. The deal signals how traditional Hollywood intermediaries must consolidate to compete in the streaming era.

DealBook: A tale of redemptions

Shareholder redemptions in SPAC mergers have spiked to 50% this year (from 20% in 2020), leaving companies like BuzzFeed with far less cash than expected—BuzzFeed raised only $16M instead of $250M. Sorkin explains how the redemption mechanism works and how companies are adapting through debt financing and deal restructuring, though Grab's $40B merger bucked the trend with minimal redemptions. This signals a structural weakness in the SPAC boom that could reshape the market.

DealBook: Trump’s SPAC has issues

Digital World Acquisition Corp., the SPAC merging with Trump Media & Technology Group, disclosed an SEC investigation while filing to raise $1 billion. Sorkin's team uncovered that the SPAC's CEO met with Trump representatives months before the public share offering, potentially violating SPAC disclosure rules that require limited information until a target is identified. The timing and undisclosed communications raise questions about regulatory compliance in a high-profile deal.

DealBook: The Deals of the Year

DealBook's year-end recap highlights 2021 as a record-breaking year for deal-making, with Goldman Sachs noting unprecedented activity levels. Private equity hit $1.1 trillion in deals while traditional M&A surged due to board pressure and corporate restructurings (GE, J&J, Toshiba), though the SPAC boom cooled after regulatory scrutiny and poor post-deal performance. Sorkin provides context on why each trend emerged and what it signals about market dynamics.

DealBook: The year’s first big I.P.O.

Private equity firm TPG went public on Nasdaq at a $9 billion valuation, pricing shares at $29.50 in the year's first major IPO. Sorkin frames the listing as a bellwether for market health while noting TPG must prove it can compete with larger rivals like Blackstone and KKR despite managing significantly fewer assets and relying heavily on traditional leveraged buyouts.

DealBook: How Microsoft played the game

Microsoft announced a $68.7 billion all-cash acquisition of Activision Blizzard, its largest deal ever, capitalizing on the gaming company's workplace scandal and depressed stock price. Sorkin reports the deal came together quickly in December after Microsoft maintained contact with CEO Bobby Kotick despite public pressure, with Microsoft's due diligence determining the harassment allegations were largely historical and manageable. The acquisition represents a major strategic bet on gaming and metaverse positioning, with Kotick expected to depart post-close.

DealBook: Activists assemble

Activist investor Trian Partners, run by Nelson Peltz, has built a significant stake in Unilever amid shareholder frustration over the company's failed $68 billion pursuit of GlaxoSmithKline's consumer business and strategic missteps. Sorkin reports on Trian's move alongside other activist campaigns at Peloton and Kohl's, signaling a broader wave of investor pressure for operational improvements. The article examines what Peltz typically demands—simplification, operational efficiency, and potential divestitures—and Unilever's vulnerability to such pressure.

DealBook: Leaving SoftBank

Marcelo Claure, SoftBank's chief operating officer and close confidante of founder Masayoshi Son, is departing after disputes over $2 billion in compensation demands. The exit compounds challenges facing the tech conglomerate, including declining stock prices, regulatory headwinds on the Arm sale to Nvidia, and questions about Son's succession planning. Claure's departure signals internal friction at a critical moment for SoftBank's portfolio and future direction.

DealBook: What is Peloton worth?

Peloton co-founder John Foley stepped down as CEO to become executive chairman, replaced by Barry McCarthy (ex-Spotify/Netflix CFO), as the company announced 20% workforce cuts and massive losses. Sorkin explores whether the struggling fitness company—once a pandemic darling—might be acquired by tech giants like Amazon or Apple, and what its true valuation should be given activist investor pressure and strategic options.

DealBook: A quiet exit for a ‘SPAC king’

Chamath Palihapitiya, the prominent "SPAC king" who took Virgin Galactic public via blank-check merger in 2019, has quietly resigned as chairman as the company's stock has plummeted 81% from its debut. Sorkin frames this as emblematic of the broader SPAC market collapse and regulatory scrutiny facing Palihapitiya, who faces questions about misaligned incentives and has seen four SPAC-backed companies underperform significantly.

DealBook: Broadcom reaches for the cloud

Broadcom announced a $61 billion acquisition of VMware, the second-largest tech deal of 2022, positioning the chip maker as a major cloud computing player with access to 500,000 customers and partnerships with Amazon, Microsoft, and Google. Sorkin contextualizes this within CEO Hock Tan's aggressive acquisition strategy since the failed Qualcomm deal, while noting the transaction includes a 40-day go-shop period that could attract competing bids from IBM or Intel. The deal represents a significant strategic pivot for Broadcom beyond semiconductors into enterprise software and cloud infrastructure.

DealBook: Dr. Amazon will see you now

Amazon announced its largest healthcare acquisition under CEO Andy Jassy, buying One Medical for $3.9 billion to expand into primary care clinics. Sorkin contextualizes this against Amazon's two-decade history of failed healthcare ventures, suggesting this represents a more serious commitment to the sector. The deal signals a strategic pivot toward integrated healthcare services beyond its previous pharmacy and employee-focused initiatives.

DealBook: “I was not surprised.”

David Rubenstein, Carlyle co-founder, breaks silence on CEO Kewsong Lee's sudden departure in an exclusive DealBook interview—the first detailed public commentary on the leadership shakeup that roiled Wall Street. Sorkin uses the moment to explore what triggered Lee's exit, Rubenstein's views on carried interest taxation, and insights from his forthcoming book on elite investors. The interview provides rare insider perspective on a major private equity leadership crisis that had generated intense speculation.

DealBook: Main Street 1, Wall Street 0

Goldman Sachs reported earnings showing a strategic retreat from M&A and IPO advisory work toward asset management, while Main Street-focused banks like JPMorgan and Bank of America outperformed. CEO David Solomon acknowledged that Goldman's consumer banking ambitions (Marcus) fell short of expectations, highlighting a broader divergence in bank performance based on business model exposure to deal activity versus traditional lending.

DealBook: Buy now, profit when?

The "buy now, pay later" sector is imploding despite years of hype, exemplified by Goldman Sachs' $2.2B GreenSky acquisition losing $1.66B in 2022. Sorkin examines why a once-booming fintech category is struggling with unit economics and consumer defaults. The piece signals a major reckoning in a sector that promised to revolutionize consumer lending.

DealBook: Remembering Tom Lee, buyout pioneer

Thomas H. Lee, founder of Thomas H. Lee Partners and a legendary figure in leveraged buyouts, died at 78. Lee pioneered the modern LBO playbook through iconic deals like Snapple (bought for $135M, sold for $1.7B in two years) and Warner Music, helping establish private equity as a major Wall Street force over four decades. His death marks the loss of an industry architect who shaped modern corporate finance.

DealBook: Shaking up Salesforce

Salesforce's earnings report arrives amid intense activist investor scrutiny, with the stock down 47% from its peak as the company grapples with bloated costs, declining sales, and cultural challenges from recent layoffs. Marc Benioff must demonstrate a credible turnaround plan while potentially ceding board seats to activists demanding operational efficiency. The situation exemplifies broader tech sector reckoning with pandemic-era excess and investor demands for profitability over growth-at-all-costs.

DealBook: Iger’s endgame for Marvel’s Ike

Bob Iger eliminated Ike Perlmutter's Marvel Entertainment division as part of Disney's $5.5 billion cost-cutting initiative, removing a contentious executive who had clashed with studio leadership and sided with activist investor Nelson Peltz against the board. Perlmutter's ouster resolves longstanding internal tensions at Disney while consolidating Marvel operations under Kevin Feige's control. The move signals Iger's willingness to make bold personnel decisions to streamline the company and reassert control.

DealBook: Hollywood super-agent buys WWE

Ari Emanuel's Endeavor agreed to acquire WWE in an all-stock deal valuing the wrestling company at $9.3 billion, creating a $21 billion live-events powerhouse combining UFC and WWE under one publicly traded entity. The deal consolidates combat sports and entertainment under one of Hollywood's most aggressive dealmakers, reflecting the strategic value of live content in the streaming era. This is a transformative M&A transaction that reshapes the sports entertainment landscape and demonstrates Emanuel's expansion beyond talent representation.

DealBook: Succession on Wall Street

JPMorgan Chase holds its investor day with CEO Jamie Dimon expected to address succession planning amid rivals' recent leadership transitions. The bank's dominance—bolstered by its First Republic acquisition—raises questions about future growth constraints as Washington grows hostile to further bank consolidation. Sorkin examines how JPMorgan navigates regulatory backlash while planning its next chapter under potential new leadership.

DealBook: Shakeup at the PGA Tour; Musk vs. Wachtell

Randall Stephenson, former AT&T chair and PGA Tour board member, resigned days before a Senate hearing, citing lack of board oversight in the tour's Saudi-backed LIV Golf merger negotiations and concerns about Saudi Arabia's human rights record. Sorkin reports on governance failures and internal conflict over the controversial deal that unified professional golf. The story captures a major sports industry upheaval with corporate governance and geopolitical implications.

DealBook: The luxury mogul who went shopping for celebrity

François-Henri Pinault acquired a majority stake in Creative Artists Agency for ~$7 billion through his family office Artémis, marking a major strategic pivot into talent representation. Sorkin frames this as Pinault's bet that celebrity endorsement power is now essential to luxury brand growth, positioning him against rival LVMH in a new arena. The deal reflects how luxury conglomerates are consolidating control over both products and the influencers who sell them.

DealBook: New stakes for Pay-TV fights; Google vs. the Justice Dept. begins

Disney and Charter Communications settled a week-long carriage dispute hours before Monday Night Football, with Disney gaining streaming distribution (Disney+ ad-supported, ESPN+) in exchange for wholesale pricing rather than free access. Sorkin analyzes how the deal, while appearing favorable to Disney, signals structural shifts in pay-TV economics as traditional cable bundles erode. The settlement matters because it establishes precedent for how streaming services will be monetized through cable providers during the industry's transition.

DealBook: The other shutdown casualties

With a federal shutdown imminent, Sorkin examines cascading economic consequences beyond typical political theater—delayed government data releases could hamper Fed decision-making on interest rates, while SEC staffing cuts would freeze IPOs and M&A approvals. The analysis highlights how political gridlock creates market uncertainty and operational paralysis in financial markets.

DealBook: E.S.G. takes a back seat

Chevron's $53B acquisition of Hess, following Exxon's $59.5B Pioneer bid, signals a major consolidation cycle in oil despite climate pressure. Sorkin analyzes how rising oil prices and strong stock valuations are enabling mega-deals while ESG investing loses momentum. The trend highlights a widening gap between well-capitalized majors and smaller producers unable to compete.

DealBook: D-Day for Disney and Iger

Bob Iger faces a critical earnings report as Disney CEO addressing activist pressure from Nelson Peltz, a depressed stock price, and Hollywood strikes. Investors are watching for updates on potential asset sales (traditional TV business, ESPN stake), the Hulu buyout of Comcast's 33% stake, and progress on streaming profitability. The earnings represent a pivotal moment for Iger's turnaround strategy and Disney's strategic direction.

DealBook: Washington comes for the steel deal

Nippon Steel's $14 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel faces mounting political opposition from both Democrats and Republicans citing national security concerns, with key senators calling for CFIUS to block the deal. Sorkin highlights how protectionist sentiment and election-year politics are converging to threaten a major cross-border M&A transaction. The deal illustrates the growing intersection of industrial policy, geopolitics, and domestic politics in determining which foreign investments get approved.

DealBook: The 2024 deals forecast

DealBook interviews JPMorgan Chase's co-head of global investment banking about the 2024 outlook following a dismal 2023 for dealmaking. Global M&A hit a 10-year low at $2.9 trillion (down 17%), while IPOs plummeted 25% to $109.8 billion. Sorkin captures banker sentiment on what could drive recovery in the year ahead amid economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

DealBook: BlackRock’s next big bet

BlackRock announced its largest acquisition since 2009—a $12.5 billion deal for Global Infrastructure Partners—marking a major strategic pivot toward infrastructure investing (airports, bridges, pipelines). Sorkin frames this as BlackRock capitalizing on government incentives and steady long-term returns in an underserved asset class. The move reflects how mega-asset managers are diversifying beyond traditional stocks/bonds into alternative investments.

DealBook: Adam Neumann wants to buy back WeWork

DealBook breaks news that Adam Neumann, ousted WeWork founder, is attempting to acquire the now-bankrupt company through his new firm Flow Global (backed by Andreessen Horowitz) with financing from hedge fund Third Point's Dan Loeb. Neumann's lawyers claim WeWork is stonewalling their takeover approach in what could be a major restructuring of the failed unicorn that symbolized venture capital excess.

DealBook: The new N.F.L. owners?

The NFL is considering relaxing ownership rules to allow private equity investments, a decision expected at the league's annual meeting in Orlando in six weeks. Unlike MLB, NBA, and NHL which have already opened their doors to institutional investors, the NFL maintains strict ownership requirements including a 30% minimum stake and $1.2B debt limit. Sorkin explores how PE involvement could dramatically increase team valuations and fundamentally reshape the culture of NFL ownership.

DealBook: How regulators might view a big payments deal

Capital One agreed to acquire Discover Financial Services for $35.3 billion, creating a credit card lending giant that would surpass JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup in card loan volume. Sorkin analyzes the complex regulatory calculus: while Washington is skeptical of big financial mergers, ongoing scrutiny of Visa and Mastercard may paradoxically help Capital One's case by showing need for stronger competitors. The deal hinges on whether regulators view consolidation as anti-competitive or as necessary to challenge dominant payment networks.

DealBook: China’s blockbuster zombies

Sorkin examines how U.S. investors who poured billions into Chinese tech companies like ByteDance, Ant Financial, and others now face a new problem: geopolitical risk that blocks liquidity even as these companies remain profitable. With TikTok facing forced divestment pressure and U.S.-China tensions escalating, these investments are becoming "China zombies"—trapped assets unlikely to generate returns despite strong underlying businesses.

DealBook: Is Microsoft building an unassailable lead in A.I.?

Microsoft hired Mustafa Suleyman, co-founder of DeepMind and Inflection AI, along with most of Inflection's team, marking another major move in the AI arms race. Sorkin examines how Microsoft is consolidating AI talent and resources while competitors like Apple and Google explore partnerships to catch up. The aggressive deal-making strategy raises questions about regulatory scrutiny in this high-stakes sector.

DealBook: A higher bid, and national security worries, for an ammo maker

MNC Capital raised its takeover bid for ammunition maker Vista Outdoor to $3 billion ($37.50/share), betting that a higher offer plus national security concerns about rival bidder Czechoslovak Group will sway shareholders. The deal highlights how geopolitical tensions are reshaping M&A dynamics, with U.S. security reviews now a competitive weapon in corporate takeovers.

DealBook: The politics of a steel deal

President Biden is blocking Nippon Steel's $14 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel to appease swing-state voters in Pennsylvania, even as he hosts Japan's prime minister for a state visit meant to strengthen the U.S.-Japan alliance. Sorkin examines the tension between Biden's geopolitical strategy (building alliances against China) and electoral politics, showing how presidential campaigns are directly influencing major M&A decisions and economic policy.

DealBook: Inflation stalks the markets and politics

U.S. inflation ticked up for a third consecutive month, causing traders to slash bets on Fed rate cuts from six to less than two for 2024, with potential implications for Biden's reelection bid. Sorkin covers the macroeconomic uncertainty roiling markets and the political stakes, while also examining Amazon CEO Andy Jassy's shareholder letter emphasizing A.I. investment and a Paramount M&A update.

DealBook: Golf's big deal veers off course

The long-promised merger between the PGA Tour and Saudi-backed LIV Golf remains stalled with multiple missed deadlines, creating uncertainty about professional golf's future structure. Sorkin reports from insider sources that no final agreement is imminent despite last June's initial combination announcement. The standoff highlights how player power has shifted the dynamics of professional sports negotiations and could permanently reshape the industry.

DealBook: Merger mania in the oil patch

ConocoPhillips agreed to acquire Marathon Oil for $22.5 billion in an all-stock deal, continuing a wave of mega-mergers in the energy sector despite Biden administration scrutiny. The deal follows Chevron's $53 billion Hess acquisition and reflects oil majors' record profits fueling consolidation around Permian Basin and Gulf of Mexico assets. Sorkin contextualizes this within $250 billion in sector M&A over the past year and notes ongoing regulatory/legal complications, including Exxon's challenge to the Chevron-Hess deal.

DealBook: A scoop on Miami Dolphins deal talks

Stephen Ross is negotiating with private equity firms including Arctos Partners to sell up to a 15% stake in the Miami Dolphins at a valuation exceeding $7 billion, following a failed deal with Ken Griffin. The transaction would be the first under new NFL rules permitting PE ownership and would include stakes in the Miami Grand Prix and Hard Rock Stadium, potentially setting valuations for other franchises. Approval could come as early as December at an NFL owners meeting.

DealBook: “A real pioneer”

David Bonderman, the pioneering private equity executive who co-founded TPG and helped transform the industry into a multitrillion-dollar force, died at 82. Sorkin traces Bonderman's unlikely path from civil rights lawyer to Wall Street titan, highlighting his role in major takeovers that reshaped corporate America. His death marks the end of an era for one of private equity's most influential figures.

DealBook: Fallout from U.S. Steel

President Biden is set to officially block Nippon Steel's $14 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel due to political opposition and national security concerns, effectively killing a major industrial megadeal. Sorkin examines the cascade of consequences, including potential chilling effects on foreign investment from U.S. allies and expected litigation. The decision reflects broader tensions between industrial policy, union interests, and geopolitical considerations in an election year.

DealBook: Scooping a S.F. Giants private equity deal

The San Francisco Giants sold approximately 10% ownership to private equity firm Sixth Street in a deal approved by MLB, with proceeds funding stadium upgrades and real estate development. DealBook broke the story exclusively. The deal reflects a broader trend of PE firms investing in sports franchises as live sports command premium valuations and attract institutional capital seeking stable, high-profile assets.

DealBook: The “golden share” clause

The Trump administration's approval of Nippon Steel's U.S. Steel acquisition includes unprecedented conditions—an American CEO, U.S.-majority board, and a "golden share" giving the government veto power over key corporate decisions. Sorkin and Kaye report this could fundamentally reshape how the U.S. regulates foreign investment in strategic industries, potentially establishing a new template for government control beyond traditional CFIUS review.

DealBook: Activist judges

A Stanford study by Joseph Grundfest reveals Delaware courts are awarding lawyers extraordinary fee multipliers (up to 66x normal rates, with some earning $35,000/hour), raising questions about whether the state's vaunted predictability and efficiency are being undermined by a lucrative fee structure. Sorkin examines how two chancery judges disproportionately hand out these "septuples" and "decuples," potentially eroding Delaware's competitive advantage as corporations' preferred incorporation jurisdiction. The analysis, promoted by prominent VC Bill Gurley, signals boardroom concern about hidden costs of Delaware incorporation.

DealBook: Apple’s “big risk”

Apple's WWDC announcement underwhelmed investors with minimal AI breakthroughs compared to competitors like Google and Amazon, prompting speculation that the company may need to acquire a major LLM maker or search engine like Perplexity to remain competitive. Sorkin examines whether Apple's historical ability to play catch-up will suffice or if the company risks losing users to ChatGPT and other AI products. The piece raises substantive questions about Apple's strategic options in the rapidly evolving AI landscape.

DealBook: Private goes public

Wall Street is pivoting toward private markets as companies stay private longer and private assets are expected to reach $62 trillion by 2034. Financial firms are racing to democratize access to private investments for retail investors, while the Trump administration considers allowing 401(k) investments in private markets. Sorkin explores both the opportunity and risks of this structural shift in capital markets.

DealBook: Hollywood cliffhanger

Warner Bros. Discovery announced it's exploring a sale after receiving takeover interest, with Paramount's $23/share offer facing potential competition from Comcast, Amazon, and Netflix. Separately, Meta partnered with Blue Owl on a record $27 billion private credit financing for a Louisiana data center, offloading 80% of the deal to the investment firm—signaling a major trend in how tech giants will fund infrastructure. Sorkin highlights both the strategic calculus of a potential Hollywood mega-deal and the emergence of private credit as the new financing frontier for mega-cap tech projects.

DealBook: How to save billions in taxes

A Dutch nonprofit study claims ViacomCBS used international tax mismatches to avoid $4 billion in U.S. corporate income taxes since 2002, primarily by licensing intellectual property overseas. Sorkin explores how media companies exploit gaps between tax codes when transferring foreign rights to franchises like "SpongeBob" and "Transformers." ViacomCBS disputes the findings as flawed, but the story highlights a systemic loophole affecting multinational corporations.

DealBook: A strange voice on the phone

Digital media company Ozy's co-founder Samir Rao impersonated a YouTube executive on a Goldman Sachs investment call in February, with the deception discovered when Goldman contacted the real executive. CEO Carlos Watson attributed the incident to Rao's mental health crisis. The revelation raises serious questions about governance and due diligence at a company that had raised tens of millions from prominent investors including Laurene Powell Jobs and Marc Lasry.

DealBook: Netflix flickers, Peloton skids

Netflix stock plunged 20% after warning of slowing subscriber growth (2.5M vs. 6M expected), erasing $40B in market cap as streaming competition intensifies. Peloton also declined as "stay at home" stocks face headwinds from reopening economy. Sorkin examines how pandemic beneficiaries are becoming vulnerable to structural competitive pressures and changing consumer behavior.

DealBook: Spotify’s identity crisis

Spotify faces backlash as artists pull content over Joe Rogan's pandemic misinformation, forcing the company to confront whether it's a neutral platform or responsible media company. Sorkin highlights the contradiction: Spotify paid $100M for exclusive Rogan rights and profits from his ad revenue, yet claims platform immunity from content moderation. The tension reveals a fundamental business model problem facing streaming giants in the social media age.

DealBook: The next big thing in streaming

Netflix and competitors are reversing their ad-free positioning as subscriber growth stalls and competition intensifies. With Netflix facing 20% profit decline and saturation in U.S. markets, streamers are introducing cheaper ad-supported tiers to capture price-sensitive consumers. This represents a fundamental business model shift for an industry that once rejected advertising as antithetical to premium streaming.

DealBook: ‘That was fast’

Warner Bros. Discovery abruptly shut down CNN+, the streaming service that lasted less than five weeks after a $300 million investment. The collapse reflects broader struggles in the crowded streaming market, coming days after Netflix announced subscriber losses. Sorkin examines how CNN's strategic bet on original programming and high-profile talent hires failed to attract viewers under new CEO David Zaslav's leadership.

DealBook: Netflix’s next move

Netflix is partnering with Comcast and Google to launch an ad-supported tier after years of dismissing ads, driven by its first subscriber loss in a decade and Wall Street pressure. The move could generate over $1 billion in annual high-margin revenue by Q4 2022, but raises thorny questions about revenue-sharing with content creators and advertiser data access. Sorkin highlights the strategic inflection point where streaming profitability now trumps growth-at-all-costs, reshaping the industry's economics.

DealBook: Can Disney do better?

Activist hedge fund Third Point, led by Dan Loeb, has acquired a ~$1 billion stake in Disney and is pushing for strategic changes including ESPN spinoff, early Hulu control, and new board members. This marks Loeb's second campaign at Disney after a previous $900M+ stake in 2020; Sorkin frames it as a lower-risk activist play given Disney+'s strong subscriber growth, though the stock remains down 20% YTD amid streaming profitability concerns.

DealBook: Iger’s plan

Bob Iger unveiled his Disney recovery plan with 7,000 layoffs (4% of workforce), $5.5B in cost cuts, and a major corporate restructuring consolidating streaming and content production. The moves aim to address Disney's streaming losses ($10B since 2019) and fend off activist investor Nelson Peltz's challenge. Sorkin examines whether these dramatic actions are sufficient to restore investor confidence and profitability.

DealBook: Rupert Murdoch’s trial is on hold

Fox News made an 11th-hour push to settle Dominion Voting Systems' defamation lawsuit over 2020 election coverage, delaying trial opening by one day. Sorkin highlights the high stakes—both financial and reputational—as the trial would expose private communications of top Fox executives and on-air hosts. The piece underscores how rare defamation cases actually reach jury trial, suggesting settlement pressure is mounting.

DealBook: Why Murdoch paid up

Fox News agreed to pay Dominion Voting Systems $787.5 million to settle a landmark defamation lawsuit over false 2020 election claims, one of the largest such settlements in history. Sorkin reports on Dominion owner Hootan Yaghoobzadeh's strategy of publicizing damaging evidence to force Murdoch's hand, while highlighting the massive windfall for Dominion's PE backer Staple Street Capital. The settlement represents a rare legal victory against a major media company and signals potential consequences for election misinformation.

DealBook: Rupert Murdoch’s tax break

Sorkin reports that Fox News's $787.5 million Dominion settlement may cost significantly less than advertised due to tax deductions, potentially saving the company up to $213 million. This revelation undermines claims of accountability and suggests Murdoch's empire faced lighter consequences than the headline figure suggests. The analysis highlights how tax law can substantially reduce the sting of major corporate settlements.

DealBook: Fox News after Tucker Carlson

Fox News abruptly terminated Tucker Carlson, its highest-rated prime-time host with 3+ million nightly viewers, in a move tied to fallout from the $788 million Dominion defamation settlement. Sorkin analyzes why Murdoch and Fox leadership decided the financial and legal risks of keeping Carlson outweighed his audience value, despite the $20 million annual payout and immediate 3% stock decline. The firing signals a major strategic shift for Fox News and has significant implications for media, politics, and Trump's influence.

DealBook: The Hollywood shutdown’s winners and losers

The SAG-AFTRA actors' union voted to strike, joining screenwriters and halting virtually all film and TV production. The dispute centers on streaming payouts and AI protections, reflecting broader labor activism across corporate America. Sorkin frames this as a pivotal moment for the entertainment industry with no clear resolution in sight, noting CEO defensiveness on earnings calls.

DealBook: Cracks in Netflix’s strike armor; Washington’s slow start to policing A.I.

Netflix reported strong Q2 earnings with renewed subscriber growth and improved cash flow projections, but shares fell as Wall Street expected better numbers and investors worry about long-term production impacts from Hollywood strikes. Sorkin examines whether Netflix's international production network and streaming dominance can truly insulate it from a prolonged industry shutdown, while also noting Blackstone's historic $1 trillion AUM milestone.

DealBook: Disney’s Iger goes back to the future

Bob Iger has recruited two former Disney executives, Kevin Mayer and Tom Staggs, to advise on the future of the company's legacy TV businesses amid poor box office performance and strategic uncertainty. The move signals Iger's struggle to navigate Disney's transformation as he considers divesting or restructuring ABC and ESPN. Sorkin highlights the irony that both men were once groomed as Iger's successor before departing, underscoring the company's ongoing leadership and strategic challenges.

DealBook: Iger rethinks Disney’s streaming bet

Bob Iger announced Disney is abandoning its loss-leader streaming strategy, shifting focus from subscriber growth to profitability through aggressive price increases on Disney+ and Hulu. With streaming losses totaling $11 billion since 2019, Disney is following Netflix's playbook by raising ad-free tier prices to $14/month (doubling the original $7) while keeping ad-supported tiers flat to drive migration. This marks a significant strategic inflection point for the streaming wars and signals the end of the unprofitable growth-at-all-costs era.

DealBook: Why Rupert Murdoch isn’t really moving on

Rupert Murdoch announced his succession plan naming Lachlan as heir, but Sorkin's reporting reveals the 92-year-old media mogul isn't truly stepping back—he'll remain influential through majority shareholder control, continued editorial involvement, and unresolved family dynamics. The piece exposes the gap between the headline narrative and operational reality, highlighting that real succession battles await after Murdoch's death.

DealBook: Hollywood writers put down their picket signs

The Writers Guild of America reached a tentative agreement with studios after 146 days, securing provisions for streaming residuals, minimum staffing, and AI limits—a significant win for organized labor. Sorkin frames this as evidence that unions are gaining negotiating power across industries despite studio resistance. The deal signals potential shifts in how entertainment companies compensate creators in the streaming era.

DealBook: Hollywood harmony

After months of strikes that halted Hollywood production, SAG-AFTRA tentatively agreed to a new contract with major studios, securing gains on streaming compensation, healthcare, and AI safeguards. Led by Fran Drescher, the actors' union achieved significant concessions despite the industry's shifting economics toward streaming. The deal signals the potential restart of the $134 billion film and TV business while raising questions about whether union victories can sustain in a changing media landscape.

DealBook: Deal or no deal?

David Zaslav's Warner Bros. Discovery held merger talks with Paramount, potentially combining two struggling streaming platforms (Max and Paramount+) to compete with Netflix and Disney+. While a deal could create synergies in sports rights and cable negotiations, the combined entity would face a crushing $55 billion debt load with minimal free cash flow to service it or invest in content. Sorkin's analysis highlights the strategic logic versus the financial constraints that could derail the transaction.

DealBook: Can Taylor Swift counter Nelson Peltz?

Disney posted blockbuster quarterly results—beating earnings estimates by 23% and cutting streaming losses significantly—while announcing major deals (Taylor Swift's Eras Tour exclusive, $1.5B Epic Games investment) that strengthen its position against activist investor Nelson Peltz's bid for two board seats. Sorkin examines whether Disney's operational turnaround and strategic moves will be sufficient to defeat Peltz's proxy challenge. The earnings demonstrate management's ability to execute while under activist pressure, a key battleground in modern corporate governance.

DealBook: Paramount’s mountain of questions

Bob Bakish was ousted as Paramount CEO and replaced by a three-person "office of the CEO," removing a key obstacle to controlling shareholder Shari Redstone's push for a Skydance merger. Sorkin examines the strategic failures that led to Bakish's downfall—including late streaming entry, missed asset sales, and show licensing blunders—while highlighting unresolved questions about Paramount's future under new leadership. The leadership vacuum amid active M&A talks creates uncertainty about the company's direction and deal prospects.

DealBook: Is exclusivity worth it?

Paramount's exclusivity period with Skydance expired without a deal, allowing the company to reopen talks with Apollo Global Management and Sony Pictures. Sorkin examines the strategic tension in M&A negotiations: buyers want exclusivity to signal commitment, while sellers prefer flexibility to shop for higher bids. The piece uses Paramount's messy situation to explore a fundamental dealmaking question with real financial consequences.

DealBook: Breaking up Paramount

Sony Pictures Entertainment and Apollo Global Management have revealed plans to acquire and dismantle Paramount Global for approximately $26 billion, keeping the movie studio and film library while selling off CBS, cable networks (MTV, Nickelodeon), and Paramount+ streaming service to other buyers. Sorkin's reporting highlights the strategic rationale—Sony's long-standing desire to own the Paramount Pictures studio—while flagging potential complications in executing such a complex breakup. This represents a watershed moment for legacy media consolidation and the ongoing restructuring of the entertainment industry.

DealBook: How does the Paramount drama end?

After months of negotiations, Shari Redstone abruptly ended merger talks between Skydance Media and Paramount, with a near-final deal already reached on economic terms. Redstone's reluctance to sell the family-controlled media empire, combined with eroded trust due to media leaks and Skydance's reduced offer valuation, ultimately killed the transaction. This represents a major M&A collapse with significant implications for Paramount's future and the broader media consolidation landscape.

DealBook: Murdoch’s game of thrones

Rupert Murdoch, 93, is secretly seeking to modify an "irrevocable" trust in Nevada probate court to give his son Lachlan majority control of Fox and News Corp after his death, overriding an equal-share arrangement with three other children. This battle over a global media empire with significant political influence represents a major corporate succession dispute with far-reaching implications for media ownership and control. The story combines family drama with substantive questions about corporate governance, trust law, and the future direction of influential news organizations.

DealBook: Paramount’s 11th-hour suitor

Edgar Bronfman Jr. submitted a surprise last-minute bid to acquire Paramount, threatening an $8 billion Skydance deal led by David Ellison. Despite initial skepticism, Bronfman assembled billions in investor commitments and convinced Paramount's board to extend its "go shop" window to consider his offer, transforming the sale into a battle between media dynasty heirs. The competing bids represent a pivotal moment in Hollywood consolidation with major implications for the future of legacy media.

DealBook: Murdoch’s Plan B

A Nevada commissioner rejected Rupert Murdoch's attempt to modify his family trust to give sole control of his media empire to his eldest son Lachlan, stripping voting rights from three other children. The 93-year-old mogul plans to appeal but faces a significant setback in his final major maneuver to preserve the right-leaning editorial direction of Fox News, The Wall Street Journal, and other outlets. The ruling leaves control of one of the world's most influential media empires uncertain, with four children now set to have equal say upon Murdoch's death.

DealBook: The Murdoch war ends

After years of legal fighting, the Murdoch family resolved its succession dispute with Lachlan Murdoch gaining control of the media empire worth billions, while his three siblings receive $1.1 billion each to exit. Sorkin emphasizes the stakes: this determines leadership of one of the world's most powerful media conglomerates, including Fox News, at a critical moment of influence. The settlement also signals broader corporate governance issues, with a sidebar on OpenAI's threat to leave California over regulatory concerns.

DealBook: Who’s afraid of inflation?

Fed Chair Jay Powell testified that the economic recovery remains "uneven and far from complete," signaling the central bank will maintain low interest rates and bond purchases despite inflation concerns. Markets rallied on Powell's dovish stance, as investors had feared rate hikes could derail the recovery. Sorkin analyzes the delicate balance between stimulus-driven growth and inflation risk that's driving market volatility.

DealBook: Time for a tantrum?

Bond yields surged as investors grew concerned the Fed wasn't adequately addressing potential inflation from post-pandemic economic growth, despite no actual taper announcement. Sorkin frames this as a "tantrum without the taper"—distinct from 2013's crisis—where markets are pricing in future rate hikes due to stimulus-driven inflation risks. The piece provides useful context on market psychology and Fed policy expectations during a pivotal economic moment.

DealBook: Economic road rage

Sorkin interviews Karen Petrou, whose new book argues the Federal Reserve's monetary policy directly exacerbates wealth inequality by inflating asset prices that primarily benefit the wealthy. The piece examines how ultra-low rates and market support measures, especially during the pandemic, concentrated gains among the top 1% who own most stocks, challenging the Fed's traditional claim of neutrality on inequality. This represents a substantive policy critique gaining traction among central bankers themselves.

DealBook: Is the economy about to overheat?

As Biden's stimulus spending ramps up post-pandemic, economists debate whether the government risks triggering runaway inflation. Sorkin surveys ten leading economists on what warning signs of economic overheating would actually look like—from sustained inflation above 3% to wage-price spirals—capturing a pivotal moment in 2021 when inflation concerns were shifting from theoretical to urgent.

DealBook: Jamie Dimon is preparing for a boom

JPMorgan's CEO predicts a U.S. economic boom through 2023 driven by excess savings and pandemic recovery, but warns of inflation risks that could force aggressive Fed rate hikes and trigger recession. Dimon also argues banks face existential competition from tech giants and shadow banking, calling for stricter regulation of nonbank financial competitors. The letter offers both optimistic economic outlook and cautionary notes on systemic risks.

DealBook: Brace for a big inflation number

Consumer Price Index data expected to show May inflation at 4.7% year-over-year—the largest jump since 2008—raising questions about whether price increases are temporary or structural. Sorkin frames the debate around base effects and supply chain dynamics, emphasizing the stakes for Fed policy and White House spending plans. The outcome could force earlier economic tightening if inflation proves entrenched rather than transitory.

DealBook: “Planning the escape route”

The Federal Reserve is expected to hint at unwinding its pandemic-era stimulus measures at today's policy meeting, with Chair Jay Powell's comments on inflation and future rate hikes under close scrutiny. Markets are watching for subtle signals that the Fed may begin tapering its $120 billion monthly bond purchases and potentially raise rates as early as 2023. This represents a potential inflection point for monetary policy that could reshape market dynamics.

DealBook: No stress

Major U.S. banks including JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America passed the Fed's annual stress tests, clearing them to resume shareholder payouts after pandemic-era restrictions. Sorkin highlights the contrast between 2009 (when four of the six largest banks failed stress tests) and 2021, showing how post-financial crisis regulations strengthened the banking system—but warns that success may breed complacency as guardrails are relaxed.

DealBook Weekend: Hacking Wall Street

Following high-profile cyberattacks on Colonial Pipeline and JBS, Sorkin examines whether the financial system faces similar vulnerabilities. Bank CEOs identified cybersecurity as their top existential threat, surpassing pandemic and climate risks. The piece explores decade-long preparations by federal officials and financial institutions to defend against nation-state cyberattacks on critical infrastructure.

DealBook: Jay Powell’s future

Fed Chair Jay Powell's term expires in February 2021, and while insiders initially favored his reappointment, growing opposition from Democrats like Elizabeth Warren threatens confirmation. Critics cite ethical lapses including a trading scandal involving top Fed officials and Powell's mixed regulatory record as a former investment banker, creating unusual uncertainty around his future.

DealBook: Everything is getting more expensive

Consumer prices rose more than expected in September, with meat up 13%, gasoline up 42%, and rent accelerating, challenging the "transitory inflation" narrative. Sorkin examines how persistent price gains are forcing the Fed to reconsider its timeline for raising rates and removing stimulus, with officials divided on whether to act in 2022. The piece highlights the policy dilemma: tightening too fast risks hurting the labor market recovery, but waiting risks inflation becoming entrenched.

DealBook: What goes up ...

U.S. stocks surged nearly 4% in a week and 25% for the year, but Bank of America strategists warn the S&P 500's real earnings yield has turned negative for the first time since 1947—a rare signal that preceded the 2000 tech bubble and 1970s stagflation. Sorkin examines whether valuations have become dangerously disconnected from corporate earnings amid rising inflation, presenting three possible outcomes: a market correction, inflation decline, or earnings growth.

DealBook: What will Jay say?

The Federal Reserve's final policy meeting of 2021 will see Chair Jay Powell announce a shift from economic stimulus toward inflation control, likely accelerating the end of bond purchases and signaling rate hikes in 2022. Sorkin frames this as a pivotal moment where Powell abandons his "transitory inflation" narrative amid surging producer prices. The decision will reshape monetary policy and market expectations heading into 2022.

DealBook: ‘Bad news on top of bad news’

Thousands of Canadian truckers protesting vaccine mandates blocked key U.S.-Canada border crossings, including the Ambassador Bridge carrying 25% of bilateral trade. Ford, GM, Honda and Toyota curtailed production as the auto industry—already battered by chip shortages—faces compounding supply chain disruptions that could impact inflation trends.

DealBook: How bad is inflation, really?

Sorkin examines the disconnect between strong job growth and public pessimism about the economy, attributing it to inflation fears. He argues some concerns may be misplaced since wages are currently outpacing prices for many workers, but warns that persistent inflation from supply-chain disruptions and the Ukraine invasion could threaten growth and wages. The piece offers useful context on inflation psychology and economic risks during a critical moment.

DealBook: Prepare for liftoff

As the Fed prepares to raise rates for the first time since the pandemic, bond yields have jumped to 2019 levels, but the signal is ambiguous—rising yields typically indicate economic strength, yet Goldman Sachs just cut growth forecasts, suggesting inflation fears rather than optimism are driving the move. Sorkin analyzes what this mixed message means for Powell's ability to tighten policy without triggering recession, drawing parallels to Volcker's inflation-fighting era.

DealBook: Will inflation fix itself?

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.25% and signaled six more hikes in 2022 to combat the worst inflation in decades, betting it can slow price growth without triggering recession. Sorkin examines whether Powell's optimistic scenario—strong economy absorbing higher rates while unemployment stays low—is realistic, noting the Fed's own revised forecasts show higher inflation and slower growth. The piece captures a pivotal moment in monetary policy with significant implications for markets, employment, and consumer spending.

DealBook: Inflation in wartime

With the Fed beginning rate hikes to combat inflation exacerbated by Russia's Ukraine invasion, Sorkin and Lowenstein examine historical precedents for managing wartime price pressures, particularly Paul Volcker's aggressive 1980s approach. The piece provides context for understanding current monetary policy decisions amid geopolitical disruption and supply shocks.

DealBook: As bad as it gets?

U.S. inflation hit 8.5% in March, the highest in 40+ years, but some economists believe this represents a peak with signs of moderation ahead. Sorkin examines the technical factors—gas price surges, easing supply chains, and base effects—that suggest inflation may be cooling despite the alarming headline number. Central banks globally are responding with aggressive rate hikes, signaling the policy response to what could be an inflection point in the inflation cycle.

DealBook: Headed for a slowdown?

Sorkin examines early warning signs of U.S. economic deceleration—negative Q1 GDP, Amazon's slowest revenue growth since dot-com, Apple's supply chain deterioration—challenging the prevailing narrative of sustained pandemic-era momentum. He questions whether corporations can maintain profit growth amid wage pressures, geopolitical disruption, and China lockdowns. The piece captures a pivotal inflection point in 2022 economic expectations.

DealBook: The Fed’s tough spot

The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma as it prepares to raise rates by 0.5% this week to combat decades-high inflation, while the stock market's worst monthly performance in two years signals economic weakness ahead. Sorkin examines the uncertainty around inflation's trajectory—with mortgage rates already rising and supply-chain pressures persisting from Ukraine and China lockdowns—and how the Fed must navigate between fighting price pressures and avoiding a market-driven recession. This captures a pivotal moment in monetary policy with real consequences for consumers and investors.

DealBook: The Fed signals urgency

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.5% (largest increase since 2000) and announced plans to shrink its $9 trillion balance sheet to combat inflation at 40-year highs. Sorkin emphasizes the urgency and dual-pronged approach signals rapid economic withdrawal, with more half-point hikes possible. This marks a major policy shift with economy-wide consequences as borrowing costs rise sharply.

DealBook: How long will the job market remain red hot?

With April jobs data expected to show continued strong hiring (380K jobs, 3.5% unemployment), Sorkin examines the tension between a tight labor market and the Fed's inflation-fighting rate hikes. The analysis explores whether the Fed can engineer a soft landing by cooling demand without triggering significant job losses, a critical economic balancing act with major implications for workers and businesses.

DealBook: Down, down, down

The S&P 500 experienced its longest weekly losing streak since 2011 amid extreme market volatility, driven by the Federal Reserve's dramatic policy shift away from loose monetary policy that markets had relied on for two decades. Sorkin synthesizes multiple headwinds—Fed tightening, China lockdowns, inflation, supply constraints, and oil spikes—to explain investor confusion and market dysfunction. The piece captures a pivotal moment when markets struggle to price in a fundamental regime change in monetary policy.

DealBook: Bernanke’s warning

Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke tells Sorkin in an exclusive interview that the U.S. faces stagflation risk for the first time since the 1970s—slow growth combined with persistent high inflation—though he believes a recession can still be avoided if the Fed maintains public credibility. The warning comes as economists remain divided on whether a soft landing is possible, with some like Larry Summers predicting recession is likely.

DealBook: Why economists are rooting for a slowdown

With job openings vastly outnumbering available workers and inflation at 40-year highs, economists are hoping May's employment report shows hiring slowdown—a counterintuitive shift from normal recession fears. Sorkin explains why a cooling labor market could actually be beneficial for the economy and what specific metrics matter most in interpreting the data. The piece provides essential context for understanding the Fed's policy dilemma between fighting inflation and maintaining employment.

DealBook: No relief in sight for prices

The Consumer Price Index was expected to show inflation at 8.2% year-over-year in May, near 40-year highs, forcing the Federal Reserve to consider aggressive interest rate hikes. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen acknowledged inflation as the Biden administration's top priority while maintaining that household finances remain strong and a recession isn't expected, despite consumer pessimism. Sorkin covers the tension between robust labor markets and soaring prices, with particular focus on how policymakers will interpret core inflation data to guide monetary policy decisions.

DealBook: When bears attack

The S&P 500 entered bear market territory (down 22% from peak), marking the second major downturn since the pandemic began. Unlike the first bear market's quick recovery, this one poses greater risks due to aggressive Fed rate hikes to combat inflation, World Bank warnings on global growth, and heightened exposure among retirees. Sorkin examines what the market decline signals about recession probability and economic vulnerability.

DealBook: How much can the Fed do?

The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a major interest rate decision today, with economists predicting a 0.75% increase—the largest hike in decades—as inflation accelerated beyond expectations in May. Sorkin explains the shift in economic thinking: while early inflation was blamed on supply chain disruptions, continued price increases now point to demand-side pressures that the Fed can actually address through rate hikes. This represents a critical moment in monetary policy as the central bank attempts to combat persistent inflation.

DealBook: Tracking Wall Street fear

The S&P 500 tumbled 3% into bear market territory with 10 weekly declines in 11 weeks, as investors oscillate between relief at Fed inflation-fighting measures and fear of recession. Sorkin tracks the volatility spike (VIX doubled to 30+) and catalysts: supply chain issues, aggressive rate hikes, recession concerns, pandemic effects, and the Ukraine war. The piece provides essential context on market dynamics during a critical economic inflection point.

DealBook: A slowdown ahead?

The Labor Department's June jobs report is expected to show hiring slowed to ~270,000 positions, the slowest month since Biden took office, as fewer workers are available and consumer spending weakens from Fed rate hikes. Sorkin examines the economic paradox: job growth remains historically strong yet multiple sectors (housing, commodities) signal a broader slowdown, creating a dilemma for the Fed's inflation-fighting strategy. The piece provides essential context on the economy's trajectory during a critical period of monetary policy tightening.

DealBook: Decision day for the E.C.B.

The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in a decade as eurozone inflation hits 8.6%, forcing Christine Lagarde to balance fighting price pressures against recession risks across 19 economies. Sorkin frames this as a pivotal moment ending a decade of ultra-loose monetary policy, complicated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupting energy and commodity supplies. The decision matters globally as a major central bank shifts policy amid geopolitical and economic turbulence.

DealBook: Eyes on the Fed

The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a major interest rate increase this week—potentially a full percentage point, the largest single hike since the 1980s—to combat four-decade-high inflation. Sorkin examines the central bank's delicate balancing act: aggressively fighting price increases without triggering a recession, amid signs of earnings slowdown and economic stress. The decision carries significant implications for markets, employment, and consumer spending.

DealBook: Big Tech and the Fed

Major tech companies' earnings are coming in below expectations, which Sorkin frames as potentially positive news for the Fed's inflation-fighting efforts. Microsoft and Alphabet reported mixed results with profit declines despite solid revenue growth, raising the question of whether corporate profit slowdowns have gone far enough to satisfy the Fed's economic cooling goals.

DealBook: The Fed won’t say the ‘R’ word

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.75% for the fourth time in 2022, bringing its benchmark rate to 2.5%, while Chair Jerome Powell insisted the economy isn't heading toward recession despite Wall Street's pessimism. Sorkin highlights the disconnect between the Fed's optimism about a "soft landing" and market expectations of a downturn by year-end, examining the mixed economic signals (weak consumer confidence vs. strong corporate profits and low unemployment) that underpin this debate.

DealBook: Jackson Hole’s greatest hits and misses

Fed Chair Jay Powell delivers his annual Jackson Hole address amid intense scrutiny over interest rate policy and inflation outlook. Sorkin provides historical context by reviewing past Jackson Hole predictions—including Raghuram Rajan's prescient 2005 warning about financial catastrophe that proved accurate—to frame what investors should watch for in Powell's remarks. The speech carries outsized market significance as investors hunt for clues about the Fed's next moves in its aggressive rate-hiking campaign.

DealBook: Inflation nation

An unexpected inflation report showing consumer prices rose rather than fell spooked markets, with the S&P 500 dropping 4% and economists like Larry Summers calling for aggressive Fed rate hikes. Sorkin examines why Wall Street miscalculated inflation expectations due to recency bias and soft-landing optimism, while highlighting economic paradoxes of high inflation coexisting with low growth. The piece explores the critical question of whether the Fed can engineer a soft landing or will trigger a recession.

DealBook: Crisis averted

Labor Department negotiators secured a tentative agreement with rail operators and unions early morning, averting a nationwide train strike scheduled for the next day. The deal addresses worker demands for higher pay, sick leave, and safer conditions while preventing potential $2 billion daily economic losses and supply chain disruption. Sorkin frames this as a significant crisis prevention with broad macroeconomic implications for inflation and supply chains.

DealBook: Jay Powell’s high-wire act

The Federal Reserve faces a critical decision on interest rates this week amid persistent inflation and growing recession concerns. Sorkin examines the tension between Powell's need to combat 8.3% inflation and fears that aggressive tightening could trigger economic contraction, with mortgage rates already above 6% impacting the housing market. The piece captures a pivotal moment in monetary policy with global implications as other central banks also tighten simultaneously.

DealBook: Hard landing?

The Federal Reserve raised rates by 75 basis points for the third consecutive meeting, with Chair Powell signaling an additional 1.25 percentage points of increases by year-end, bringing rates to 4.4% by December. Sorkin examines the ripple effects across labor, housing, and stock markets, with economists warning of recession risks despite Powell's reluctance to call it his base case. The piece contextualizes this within a global trend of central bank tightening as developed economies battle 40-year-high inflation.

DealBook: London falling

British Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng's commitment to aggressive tax cuts amid borrowing for energy relief triggered a pound crisis, sending sterling to 40-year lows and forcing expectations of aggressive Bank of England rate hikes to 6%. Sorkin contextualizes how European political instability—including Italy's hard-right election—is creating ripple effects across global markets and asset classes. The piece illustrates how fiscal policy decisions in one major economy can trigger currency crises and reshape monetary policy expectations worldwide.

DealBook: Bear season

Technology stocks and bonds are both experiencing significant losses simultaneously—a rare occurrence that signals broader market stress. Sorkin explains why this unusual correlation matters: tech companies are now more vulnerable to interest rate hikes due to massive debt loads and economic sensitivity, unlike during previous crises when bonds and tech moved in opposite directions. The analysis suggests this alignment may be temporary as venture capital and private equity capital eventually seek higher returns.

DealBook: The Bernanke Nobel debate

Ben Bernanke won the Nobel Prize in Economics, with the award reigniting debate over his 2008 financial crisis response. Supporters credit him with preventing a second Great Depression through aggressive bailouts and quantitative easing, while critics note he missed early warning signs of the subprime housing collapse as a Fed governor. Sorkin frames this as a rare case where economic theory met real-world application at the highest stakes.

DealBook: Gilt complex

The Bank of England created market chaos by first suggesting its emergency bond-buying program would continue, then abruptly announcing it would end Friday, prompting a pound collapse and surging gilt yields. Andrew Bailey's blunt warning to pension funds ("You've got three days left") undermined central bank credibility and triggered the exact market turmoil the program was designed to prevent. The mixed messaging reveals serious communication failures during a critical financial stability moment.

DealBook: What inflation problem?

JPMorgan and Wells Fargo beat earnings estimates despite economic headwinds, but the real story was extreme market volatility triggered by a 40-year inflation high. Stocks plummeted on the CPI report, then reversed sharply mid-session in a 1,500+ point intraday swing—the most volatile day since March 2020—leaving Wall Street confused about what drove the sudden reversal.

DealBook: Crisis of Truss

British Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt reversed nearly all of PM Liz Truss's promised £45 billion in tax cuts after market turmoil, effectively neutering the prime minister's authority. Hunt has become the de facto power in government while facing a structural fiscal crisis and pressure from the Bank of England to raise rates despite austerity measures. This represents a major political and economic inflection point for the UK with global market implications.

DealBook: What’s next for the Fed?

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates by 0.75 percentage points for the fourth consecutive time, bringing the prime rate near 4 percent. Sorkin examines the competing signals—a still-resilient labor market versus market optimism about a potential Fed pivot to smaller increases—that will shape the central bank's future policy direction. This matters because Fed decisions directly impact asset valuations, borrowing costs, and economic growth prospects.

DealBook: Fed up?

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, marking a return to "normal" sized hikes after months of aggressive increases. Sorkin analyzes what investors are watching for in Powell's announcement—specifically whether the Fed signals a slowdown or pause in future rate increases as inflation cools. The market's January rally hinges on Fed messaging about the path forward for monetary policy.

DealBook: Recession watch

Fed Chair Powell signaled the central bank will keep raising rates above previous expectations to combat inflation, even at the risk of economic slowdown. Markets are pricing in a 5.66% peak federal funds rate with potential half-point increases ahead, while inverted yield curves historically precede recessions. Sorkin highlights the market's shift from underestimating rate persistence to bracing for prolonged monetary tightening.

DealBook: Watch out for earnings

Earnings season begins with Delta posting unexpected losses and major banks set to report, while investors grapple with conflicting signals—falling inflation offering some relief but Fed minutes confirming recession fears. Sorkin highlights the central tension: corporate profits are expected to fall nearly 7% (worst since pandemic), making earnings reports critical for understanding economic trajectory and investor sentiment.

DealBook: Waiting for a Fed pause; Europe moves ahead on A.I. rules

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady for the first time in over a year, breaking a streak of 10 consecutive increases since March 2022. However, Sorkin reports that Fed Chair Jay Powell will likely signal more hikes are coming, as core inflation remains above the 2% target. The newsletter also covers Europe's AI regulatory push and Marcelo Claure's new fund, providing investors with key context on monetary policy direction and emerging regulatory trends.

DealBook: The Fed’s next move

Inflation data shows moderation, pointing toward a Fed rate pause in September, but officials warn against premature celebration. Sorkin analyzes the mixed market reaction—initial stock rally followed by Treasury auction weakness—and examines what continued uncertainty means for monetary policy and the economy. The piece contextualizes the inflation fight's progress while highlighting lingering risks.

DealBook: What’s spooking investors

Sorkin examines the August 2023 market sell-off driven by weakening consumer confidence and China's economic troubles, particularly Country Garden's debt crisis triggering contagion fears. Despite Goldman Sachs predicting Fed rate cuts and cooling inflation, global investors are dumping stocks and bonds amid concerns about China's property market and commodity price declines. The piece connects macro headwinds (China's trade slowdown, U.S. restrictions) to immediate market impact while previewing Fed minutes as a key catalyst.

DealBook: What next for the Fed?

With inflation concerns resurfacing after strong retail sales data, markets await July Fed meeting minutes for clues on future rate decisions. The central bank raised rates 0.25% in July and left the door open for further hikes as inflation remains above the 2% target. Sorkin frames this as a critical moment where investors are parsing Fed communications for dovish vs. hawkish signals amid mixed economic data.

DealBook: Fed watch

With the Fed's rate decision imminent, Wall Street expects the central bank to maintain rates at two-decade highs well into 2024, driven by surging oil prices and persistent inflation concerns. Sorkin analyzes how this "higher-for-longer" policy could undermine Biden's economic messaging ahead of the election and impact housing and business investment. The piece examines investor focus on the Fed's quarterly economic projections as a key indicator of future rate trajectory.

DealBook: Crude awakening

Crude oil prices have rallied to near $100/barrel over the past three months due to OPEC+ production cuts and strong global demand, creating a dilemma for the Federal Reserve as it tries to control inflation while managing growth risks. Sorkin highlights how this energy price surge will be a key topic at Jay Powell's press conference and could influence the Fed's interest rate trajectory into 2024. The piece connects commodity markets to monetary policy, showing how geopolitical decisions (Saudi/Russian cuts) ripple through the global economy.

DealBook: Market malaise

Stocks are heading for their worst month of 2023 as soaring bond yields, rising oil prices, and slowing growth trigger a widespread sell-off affecting even mega-cap tech. Sorkin analyzes the interconnected pressures—oil approaching $100/barrel, 10-year Treasury yields at 16-year highs, and potential Fed rate hikes—that could further pressure Biden's approval ratings and ripple through the economy via loan pricing. The piece provides substantive market analysis with forward-looking implications for monetary policy and political economy.

DealBook: All eyes on Powell

Jay Powell is set to speak at the Economic Club of New York, with Wall Street watching for clues on whether the Fed will maintain elevated interest rates longer than expected. The Middle East crisis has added volatility to markets already anxious about sticky inflation and Treasury sell-offs, with oil prices climbing and safe-haven assets gaining demand. Sorkin frames this as a pivotal moment where geopolitical risk intersects with monetary policy uncertainty.

DealBook: How high, and for how long?

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady today while investors scrutinize Powell's language on the "higher-for-longer" strategy, but the real market pressure comes from Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement revealing $1.5T+ in planned debt issuance over six months. The combination of elevated Treasury yields (16-year highs) and massive new debt supply threatens to roil both stock and bond markets, creating a critical moment for financial stability.

DealBook: Grading Bidenomics

Sorkin analyzes the disconnect between strong economic fundamentals (14M jobs created, 5% GDP growth, 50-year low unemployment) and voter skepticism ahead of the 2024 election, attributing the gap to persistent inflation concerns that overshadow Biden's accomplishments. The piece examines what "Bidenomics" has and hasn't delivered as the president faces an uphill messaging battle despite economic strength.

DealBook: The end of the rally

The S&P 500's nine-day winning streak snapped after a weak Treasury auction and hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jay Powell suggesting interest rate increases remain possible despite recent weak jobs data. Powell's remarks contradicted Wall Street expectations that the Fed would pause rate hikes, reigniting concerns about inflation and global growth amid ongoing geopolitical conflicts. The shift signals continued market volatility ahead as investors recalibrate expectations for monetary policy.

DealBook: The jobs-rates riddle

Sorkin previews tomorrow's crucial November payroll report, which will test bond market rallies betting on 2024 Fed rate cuts. The key metrics—job additions (~150K), wage growth (slowing per ADP data), and job openings (declining)—will signal whether the labor market is cooling enough to justify rate cuts without reigniting inflation. This represents a critical inflection point for monetary policy and market positioning heading into year-end.

DealBook: Running of the bulls

Fed Chair Jay Powell signaled the central bank would cut rates three times in 2024, sending stocks to record highs and Treasury yields below 4%. Sorkin analyzes the market's "everything rally" and what this dovish pivot means for borrowers and the broader economy after 16 months of aggressive rate hikes. The shift has global implications as other central banks may follow suit.

DealBook: A market rally rethink

The S&P 500 is surging toward record highs following the Fed's signal of three rate cuts in 2024, but veteran Wall Street analysts are questioning whether the rally is sustainable or built on overly optimistic soft-landing assumptions. Sorkin examines the disconnect between the market's euphoria and underlying economic uncertainties, while also covering Nelson Peltz's Disney proxy fight gaining a former executive recruit and tensions within the PGA Tour over Saudi financing.

DealBook: The numbers moving markets

Sorkin previews the final major economic data release of 2023—the PCE inflation report—which will signal whether the Fed has room to cut rates in 2024. Markets have surged 23% despite high inflation, and strategists predict a "rate-cut bonanza" of 152 cuts globally next year, particularly benefiting tech stocks. The piece contextualizes key economic metrics and investor expectations heading into a pivotal policy year.

DealBook: The next big test for Wall Street and Washington

As the S&P 500 rides a five-week winning streak amid solid economic growth and wage gains, today's Consumer Price Index report will reveal whether inflation is cooling enough to justify Fed rate cuts. Economists expect headline CPI at 2.9% (lowest since April 2021) and core CPI at 3.7%, though Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping pose upside risks to oil prices and inflation expectations. Sorkin frames this as a critical test of whether the "Goldilocks scenario" for the economy can hold, with major implications for investor sentiment and monetary policy.

DealBook: Higher for even longer

A higher-than-expected Consumer Price Index report spooked markets, with investors repricing interest rate cut expectations downward and dumping Treasury notes. The persistence of "supercore inflation" (services like haircuts and legal fees) at 4.3% year-over-year signals the Fed may need to keep rates elevated longer than hoped. Sorkin frames this as a critical moment for the soft landing narrative that had buoyed markets.

DealBook: Presidential price fight

With Super Tuesday cementing a Biden-Trump rematch, inflation emerges as a central campaign issue despite strong economic fundamentals. Fed Chair Jay Powell's two-day Capitol Hill testimony becomes crucial as markets debate whether rate cuts will begin in June or face delays due to sticky inflation. Sorkin frames this as the intersection of monetary policy, electoral politics, and market expectations—showing how Powell's words could move both stocks and voter sentiment.

DealBook: A banking bombshell

Fed Chair Jay Powell testified to Congress that proposed Basel III Endgame capital requirements for large banks would face "broad and material changes," signaling a major regulatory reversal after months of intense Wall Street lobbying. The rules would have required banks to hold larger emergency cushions following the SVB collapse, but face opposition from bank CEOs, Republicans, and some Democrats concerned about lending constraints amid commercial real estate turmoil. This represents a significant policy shift with lasting implications for bank profitability, systemic risk, and the regulatory landscape.

DealBook: The Fed stays the course

The Federal Reserve maintained its expectation of three interest rate cuts in 2024 while acknowledging inflation will remain elevated longer than previously hoped, sending stocks to record highs. Sorkin captures the market's optimism (84% probability of June cut) alongside economist skepticism about whether the Fed can deliver on its timeline if inflation resurges. The piece highlights the tension between the Fed's dovish stance and real inflation risks that could derail the cutting cycle.

DealBook: Jamie Dimon and America’s “pivotal moment”