Baiguan · China
TIER 4 Thu, 10 Jul 2025 10:03:07 +0000
What macro data doesn't tell about China's consumer confidence ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ | | ---|---|--- | | | Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for more --- --- Become a paid subscriber to gain access to our exclusive Discord group reserved for paid subscribers only. * * * # China's "boom-era vibe" amid a deflationary reality ### What macro data doesn't tell about China's consumer confidence | | Amber Zhang --- | Jul 10 --- | --- --- | | | --- | | --- | | --- | | --- | | READ IN APP --- It's easy to read the headlines and assume a bleak mood in China. Youth unemployment remains stubbornly high. Consumer prices are flat or falling. The "lying flat" (躺平) mindset--where young people opt out of ambition--has moved from fringe to mainstream. In economic discourse, comparisons between China's post-00s and 2010s generation and Japan's "lost decade" are becoming increasingly common. It naturally raises the question: what kind of subcultures and social values will take root among today's young Chinese in an economy that feels eerily similar to Japan's stagnation? Since COVID, time seems to have passed almost without notice. Now in its third year post-lockdown, China often feels caught in the same repeating narrative. So the question is: are young Chinese really giving up? The answer, surprisingly, may lie in something as simple as what they're wearing. Upgrade to paid ### The "boom-era vibe" A term has recently gone viral on Chinese social media: _经 济上行风_, or "_boom-era vibe."_ On the surface, it's a fashion trend. To Chinese netizens, the so-called "boom-era vibe" is a nostalgic revival of the early-2000s optimism, when dressing up boldly, not modestly, was a declaration of self-worth and ambition. On Chinese social media, typical looks of a booming economy often feature high-saturation colors, bold makeup, heels to the office--these once-faded aesthetics are being reinterpreted by a new generation of young professionals. | | ---|---|--- Red Note users comparing summer fashion styles from 20 years ago (left) to today (right). Picture from: https://m.huxiu.com/article/4525698.html On Douyin and Xiaohongshu, discussions about the "boom era"--mostly nostalgic reflections on the energetic vibe and fashion of China's economic heyday--have surged since April this year. | | ---|---|--- Source: BigOne Lab In fact, this style has less to do with actual financial prosperity and more to do with projecting energy and upward momentum. **It's about dressing not for the job you have, but for the life you want --even if your bank account isn't there yet.** Different from the more affluent consumers who are adopting the "quiet luxury" trend to stay low key, young professionals are embracing an aesthetic that says: _I still believe in striving --even if it's hard._ As one post puts it: "Even if you're only making a few thousand yuan a month, dressing like it's a boom year helps remind yourself that you're still moving forward." | | ---|---|--- Picture from: https://m.huxiu.com/article/4525698.html Upgrade to paid For many young Chinese in their 20s and 30s, the so-called "booming economy" style is more than just a look--it's a quiet psychological shift, a subtle pushback against the gloom of the "lying flat" era. > Many young people first heard the term "booming economy vibe" during casual conversations with older colleagues, who would mention how generous the benefits and how positive the work environment used to be when the company was at its peak. Even when the business underwent changes, there were no layoffs--employees were simply reassigned to different roles. > > Xiao Ni, a 22-year-old newcomer to Shanghai, couldn't help but feel a sense of envy and longing when she first heard these stories. But she soon came to a realization: the essence of the "booming economy vibe" isn't material wealth, but a belief in upward momentum. "**In any era, there are people who thrive and people who struggle. But those who succeed usually share one thing in common --they believe they'll eventually break through.**" [三联生活实验室; Life Weekly] That belief--optimism in the face of uncertainty--has become a quiet form of resilience. For many, it shows up in small things: decorating a dining table with care, putting on a bright outfit, or simply treating daily life with more intention. It's not just nostalgia for a better economy, but a choice to live as if things can still get better. ### The death of the It-Bag? The shift is also changing what people carry--literally. On the ground, luxury spending is cooling. Our in-store payment data from May shows that most luxury brands continued their downward trend--except for Hermes, which, although long seen as the more resilient one, grew by just 4%. | | ---|---|--- Source: BigOne Lab The pattern reflects a broader consumer mindset: a shift away from conspicuous consumption, and toward **more intentional --or less performative--forms of self-expression.** Upgrade to paid ### From logos to canvas totes One of the most unexpected winners of this shift? The humble **canvas tote bag**. A viral essay titled _"I used to spend 8,000 yuan on bags. Now I carry canvas totes"_ captured the mood. The author recounts how once-coveted "affordable luxury" bags--meant to signal taste and status--gradually felt cumbersome, both physically and psychologically. Too expensive to treat casually, too generic to feel personal. In contrast, canvas totes are light, expressive, and often hyper-local. Some are printed with inside jokes or Gen Z slang. In recent years, tote bags have become noticeably more common in popular TV shows and movies. | | ---|---|--- Popular Chinese TV show《我在他乡挺好的》 Picture from: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/To24huEMkuDxLtpl0XSZQg Others are exclusive giveaways from art shows, niche bookstores, or luxury hotels--creating a new kind of low-key social signaling. You won't spot a brand logo at first glance--but insiders will know. For some, tote bags have become an even more powerful **social currency** than bags with LV or Dior logos. This is where "quiet luxury" takes on a uniquely Chinese form. In a social climate where wealth display can draw unwanted attention, what counts as luxury is evolving.**It's no longer just about expensive materials --it's about the exclusivity of experience and cultural literacy.** And tote bags, oddly enough, have become a canvas for that. ### What macro data can't explain None of this will show up clearly in a GDP chart. You might read that China's CPI has been lingering in deflationary territory, but that won't help you spot alpha opportunities--like the rise of "_new consumption_ " brands such as Pop Mart or Laopu Gold. You may read that many young people seem disengaged from the job market, yet it's hard to reconcile that with how deeply engaged they remain in personal styling, wellness, and creative self-expression. These contradictions are real. So if you're trying to assess whether young China is heading toward a so-called "_lost decade_ ," macro-level data isn't all that helpful. What matters more is the human side--what people wear, what they buy, and how they choose to present themselves, even when the big picture no longer follows familiar patterns. In those details--not the data--you may find the most telling signals of where the country is actually headed. If you enjoy Baiguan, we encourage you to share it with friends, colleagues, or anyone who may find value in our content. _Our most supportive friend can earn up to**1 year free subscription ($150!)** through our referral program._ If you are already subscribed to the paid version of my newsletter, your subscription will be extended. Share ### **Related Reads** | | | #### China's food delivery price war: 0 yuan milk tea becomes reality --- | | Nina Chen| | * ---|---|--- | Jul 8 | | Read full story --- | | | #### Chagee - next Starbucks but for tea? China New Consumption #3 --- | | Amber Zhang| | * ---|---|--- | Jul 1 | | Read full story --- ### **Baiguan Podcasts** | | | #### China's role in Iran, chips for rare earths, consumption data, RMB stablecoins - Baiguan Radio #34 --- | | Robert Wu| | * ---|---|--- | Jun 22 | | Read full story --- ### **Baiguan YouTube** We at Baiguan consider it our mission to act as a bridge between China and the rest of the world. By providing transparent information and world-class market intelligence, we aim to help all stakeholders achieve success in China's unique market conditions and help businesses make informed decisions. To this end, we have shared a portion of our premium data insights and market research to help you gain a quick understanding of the most important developments in China. Our premium content is a product of collaboration between Baiguan's writers and BigOne Lab, China's leading data-driven provider of market research and analytics. 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