Daniel W. Drezner: The Madman Strikes Back

An exclusive preview from FP Collections  
  
| | | |   
---  
| | |  Our most recent edition of FP Collections, “The Trump Way” is now live on ForeignPolicy.com. Read an exclusive preview of Daniel W. Drezner’s latest piece on madman theory below, and then dive into the entire collection.   
---  
|   
---  
|  | **ARGUMENT**  
---  
The Madman Strikes Back  
---  
 _By  **Daniel W. Drezner**, an academic dean and a distinguished professor of international politics at Tufts University’s Fletcher School._  
---  
| | |   
---  
|   
---  
| |  When U.S. President Donald Trump was elected to his second term, many foreign-policy watchers asserted that he would be likely to employ the madman theory as a tool of coercive bargaining. A term originally coined by President Richard Nixon, proponents of the madman theory argue that a leader who behaves as if he might do something crazy has a better chance of deterring and coercing actors into making concessions that they otherwise would not make. In other words, countries might be willing to acquiesce more to a leader insane enough to use nuclear weapons than a leader too rational to try such a bluff.  Trump was a firm adherent of the madman theory during his first term in office. He also pushed this argument during the 2024 campaign, telling the _Wall Street Journal_  that he would never need to use force against China because Chinese President Xi Jinping “respects me and he knows I’m fucking crazy.” During the transition, historian Niall Ferguson argued that the United States’ rivals would be wary of challenging Trump because he presented himself as wild and unpredictable.  Last year, in these very pages, I assessed the madman theory and found it wanting—both in general and for Trump in particular. Indeed, for international relations scholars, the madman theory is akin to madman characters in horror films: Just when you think they have finally been killed, they rise from the grave and insert themselves into the narrative again. Despite a welter of academic articles concluding that the theory does not have much juice, the possibility that Trump is employing it—and that it’s such a crazy idea that it just might work—keeps being resurrected by the media.  For example, when the United States and Iran agreed to a cease-fire in April, just before a Trump-imposed deadline issued with the threat of bombing Iran “back to the Stone Ages,” the _New York Times_ ’ David Sanger initially described it as “a down-to-the-wire tactical victory,” writing that “Mr. Trump’s tactic of escalating his rhetoric to astronomical levels certainly helped him find an offramp he had been seeking for weeks. That success alone may fuel his belief that the tactics he learned in the New York real estate world — ignore old conventions, make maximalist demands — work in geopolitics as well.”  Of course, Sanger wrote those words believing that the cease-fire would open up shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. That turned out to be false—much like the evidence that the madman theory actually works. Indeed, after examining Trump’s second term to date, it is difficult not to conclude that his madman gambits have largely failed. Worse, his efforts to play the madman might have conjured up the one thing guaranteed to blow the theory out of the water: an actual madman for an adversary...  
---  
KEEP READING  
---  
| | |   
---  
| |  | More from “The Trump Way”  
---  
| | |   
---  
|  |  **So This, Finally, Is the ‘Trump Doctrine’ **A property developer who sought to remake skylines in his image is now doing the same to the global order.   
---  
_By Michael Hirsh_  
---  
| | |   
---  
|  |  **Four Explanatory Models for Trump’s Chaos **It’s clear that the second Trump administration is aiming for change—not inertia—in U.S. foreign policy.  
---  
_By Emma Ashford_  
---  
| | |   
---  
|  |  **Beware of Trump’s Global Broligarchy **The president’s pay-to-play mentality is undermining U.S. foreign policy.  
---  
_By Christian Caryl_  
---  
| | |   
---  
**So This, Finally, Is the ‘Trump Doctrine’   
**A property developer who sought to remake skylines in his image is now doing the same to the global order.   
---  
_By Michael Hirsh_  
---  
| | |  **Four Explanatory Models for Trump’s Chaos  
**It’s clear that the second Trump administration is aiming for change—not inertia—in U.S. foreign policy.  
---  
_By Emma Ashford_  
---  
| | |  **Beware of Trump’s Global Broligarchy  
**The president’s pay-to-play mentality is undermining U.S. foreign policy.  
---  
_By Christian Caryl_  
---  
| |   
---  
| |   
---  
| 

# The World After Trump  
  
---  
We asked five prominent thinkers to look ahead at what’s next. From an energy-based cold war to a renewed and balanced trans-Atlantic alliance, revisit our Spring 2026 issue.  
---  
READ THE MAGAZINE  
---  
| |   
---  
| | | |  | | | | |   
---|---|---|---|---|---  
| | | VIEW IN BROWSER  
---  
Want to receive FP newsletters? Manage your FP newsletter preferences.  
---  
MANAGE YOUR EMAIL PREFERENCES  |  VIEW OUR PRIVACY POLICY  |  UNSUBSCRIBE   
---  
Interested in partnering with FP on events, podcasts, or research?  
Explore FP Solutions.  
---  
_Foreign Policy_ is a division of Graham Holdings Company. All contents © 2026 Graham Digital Holding Company LLC. All rights reserved. Foreign Policy, 1099 14th St NW, Suite 500 East, Washington, D.C., 20005.  
---