Iran Is Becoming America’s Ukraine

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| |  Iran Is Becoming America’s Ukraine  
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Inside a building in the Iranian capital, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi did not seem to be seeking an exit from conflict. Rather, he appeared to be preparing the nation for its continuation. Above ground, in broad daylight, the city had adjusted to the rhythm of interception fire and public display. Men and women gathered in the streets, some dressed in burial shrouds, carrying flags and portraits of assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. When the air defense systems fired above, their “ _Allahu akbar_ ” chants rose periodically from the streets. The atmosphere reflected a system already conditioned for shock. But this isn’t the full picture. There are still those who feel the burden of no hope for the future, with or without war. Only hours earlier, news of the assassination of Iranian security chief Ali Larijani had begun circulating widely, confirmed by Israel but not yet formally acknowledged by Iran. Yet the machinery of government showed little visible disruption. Conversations moved quickly from the report itself to whether my interview with Araghchi should proceed...  
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What Trump May Do if He Loses in Iran  
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U.S. President Donald Trump doesn’t like to lose. And as his chances of pulling off a win in the war on Iran look increasingly slim, the world may soon face the prospect of a volatile president confronting a foreign-policy dilemma that is utterly out of his control. To be sure, Trump may yet pull off a feat that is lauded by geopolitical analysts as advancing U.S. interests and justifying the human, economic, and political costs of the war. But as Trump finds himself in an increasingly tight corner, it’s time to anticipate how he might react to the specter of failure in Iran—and prepare for the possibility that his response could make the conflict even more dangerous.   
  
The challenges of the Iran war seem to mount by the day... _Read or listen to this article_ _._  
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| | There’s a Reason No President Before Trump Authorized War With Iran  
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...Trump’s decision to choose war over diplomacy continues a well-trodden path of confrontational attitudes and policies, but more importantly, it also marks a radical departure, taking the United States on a path that is unlikely to “solve” Iran. Trump claims that he has done what no previous president “had the guts” to do. But his overreach will bring infamy rather than glory, with dire regional and global consequences that will outlive his presidency..._Keep reading_ _._  
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How Bad Could the Global Energy Shock Get?  
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_March 26_ |_11 a.m. ET_  
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Energy prices have shot up following an Iranian strike on a crucial gas field in Qatar, in addition to Israeli and U.S. attacks on Iranian oil infrastructure and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Prices for Brent crude, the main benchmark for oil, have jumped by about half since the start of the war—and by about three-fourths since the start of the year. How high could energy prices get, and for how long? Even if the war ends, what would it take for normal service to resume and the global energy shock to subside? **Jason Bordoff** , a _Foreign Policy_ columnist and the founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy, will join FP Live to explore the dynamics shaping the energy markets. Bordoff previously served as a senior director for energy and climate in the National Security Council under the Obama administration. Also coming up on FP Live next week: Iran’s Evolving War Plan with **Ali Vaez** , the Iran project director at the Crisis Group, exploring how Tehran may navigate the coming days and weeks of war. Register now.   
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# The World After Trump  
  
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Out now! We asked five prominent thinkers to look ahead at what’s next. From an energy-based cold war to a renewed and balanced trans-Atlantic alliance, our Spring 2026 issue highlights widely divergent paths that leaders could take.  
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