McKinsey · Ideas & Institutions
TIER 4 Sat, 24 Jan 2026 17:23:30 +0000
Sharpen your predictions | | | --- | --- | | | | | | --- | **Share this email** | | | ---|---|---|--- | ************ --- | | | | | Share this email on **LinkedIn** --- | --- | | Share this email on **X** --- | --- | | Share this email on **Facebook** --- | --- | | | | --- --- | | TIMELESS INSIGHTS–AND WHY THEY’RE AS RELEVANT AS EVER --- | | --- | | | | **STILL INTERESTED?** --- | We hope you enjoy hearing from us and want to continue getting the emails you’ve signed up for. Let us know. --- | | | Yes, I'm still interested --- | --- | | | | | --- | | Brought to you by Alex Panas, global leader of industries, & Becca Coggins, global leader of functional practices and growth platforms --- | | | --- | | --- | | | We hope you find our perspectives useful. Let us know what you think at Alex_Panas@McKinsey.com and Becca_Coggins@McKinsey.com. --- | | —Alex and Becca _ _ --- | | | January 2026 --- | | | --- | | ## **The use and abuse of scenarios** --- | | Nobody can predict the future. But CEOs are often expected to. And with today’s companies facing no shortage of volatility and disruption, navigating the uncertainty—and developing a strategy accordingly—has never been more crucial. Executives don’t need a Magic 8 Ball, though, to prepare for what’s next. When faced with unexpected crises and unknown unknowns, scenarios are a CEO’s best friend. When executed well, scenario planning offers several advantages for strategy setting. First, scenarios can expand your thinking. Past isn’t always prologue, and change happens both gradually _and_ suddenly. Scenarios increase a company’s readiness for a range of futures, challenging assumptions and welcoming extreme possibilities. Second, scenarios help uncover predetermined outcomes—sure bets based on well-established trends. Finally, scenarios help protect against groupthink, providing a safe space for contrarian thinking. Still, scenarios aren’t foolproof, and CEOs should be wary of certain telltale traps—among them, becoming paralyzed in the face of _too many_ possible scenarios; allowing scenario planning to muddle communications and obscure a single, bold vision; and discarding scenarios too quickly (often the most valuable ones are those that seem the most far-fetched or outdated). For more insights on scenario planning, including how best to present scenarios and why scenarios need catchy names, read our 2009 classic “The use and abuse of scenarios.” --- | | | | | | Expect the unexpected --- | | --- | | | | --- | | **Read our latest thinking on this classic topic ** --- | | | | --- | #### **Leading amid geopolitical upheaval: Five imperatives for today’s CEOs** --- Today’s geopolitical environment is changing the competitive landscape and thrusting business leaders into unpredictable terrain. Now more than ever, CEOs need access to a range of tools and information, including solid scenarios, to inform their decision-making. By recalibrating their strategies around two contrasting outcomes—a diversified world and a fragmented world—business leaders can turn uncertainty into an advantage. Read our latest insights on the topic from McKinsey’s Cindy Levy, Kurt Strovink, Matt Watters, Matthew Roberts, and Shubham Singhal. **Develop your geopolitical IQ** | | | --- | | _—Edited by Drew Holzfeind, senior editor, Chicago _ --- | | | | --- | | **Is there a classic business topic you’d like us to feature?Send us an email—we’d love to hear from you.** --- | | | | --- | | | | | --- | **Follow our thinking** | | | | ---|---|--- | | | | | | **McKinsey Insights** \- Get our latest thinking on your iPhone, iPad or Android. --- | | | | ---|---|--- | | | | --- | | **Share these insights ** --- | | **Did you enjoy this newsletter?** Forward it to colleagues and friends so they can subscribe too. Was this issue forwarded to you? Sign up for it and sample our 40+ other free email subscriptions here. --- | | This email contains information about McKinsey's research, insights, services, or events. By opening our emails or clicking on links, you agree to our use of cookies and web tracking technology. For more information on how we use and protect your information, please review our privacy policy. --- | You received this email because you subscribed to our McKinsey Classics newsletter. --- | Manage subscriptions | Unsubscribe --- | Copyright © 2026 | McKinsey & Company, 3 World Trade Center, 175 Greenwich Street, New York, NY 10007 ---