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Trivium China Weekly Recap | Caught in the Crossfire

TIER 4   Mon, 4 May 2026 14:01:30 +0000

Beijing's anti-sanction toolkit just got two powerful new additions.

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Trivium China Weekly Recap | Caught in the Crossfire

| | Andrew Polk

| May 4

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| | READ IN APP

Beijing 's anti-sanction toolkit just got two powerful new additions.

Earlier this month, within a single week, the State Council released two regulations that sharply expand how Chinese authorities can push back against foreign sanctions, export controls, and extraterritorial enforcement:

Don 't mistake the back-to-back rollout for a knee-jerk reaction to external events. These are the latest moves in a multi-year effort to harden China's anti-sanction architecture.

The new regulations target two pain points Beijing has long struggled to address cleanly: How to prevent foreign governments from reaching Chinese companies under their own domestic laws, and how to prevent foreign actors from severing key links in China's supply chains.

RISCS is China 's first dedicated supply chain security regulation, giving the state legal cover to penalize foreign actors for disrupting Chinese supply chains -**** with potential countermeasures spanning immigration, trade, investment, international cooperation, and foreign aid.

The language is deliberately vague - covering foreign actions that "violate normal market principles, interrupt normal transactions, or impose discriminatory measures causing substantial harm to Chinese supply chain security."

RCIFEJ empowers the Ministry of Justice to designate specific foreign laws or enforcement actions that Beijing wants to block.

The regs mostly target government actors - but the lobbying clause is the kicker.

So what 's next?

Beijing 's best-case scenario is that the regs' existence alone will serve as a compelling deterrent.

That said, Beijing will likely take some action to show it means business - but not so much that it hands China hawks new ammunition to push for faster decoupling.

So we expect early tests of both regulations - but carefully calibrated ones.

Get smart: Regardless of whether Beijing ever follows through, the risks to foreign companies just went up a notch.

The bigger picture: Beijing is going on the front foot to protect its industrial base - and the work here's far from done.

Ether Yin, Partner and Head of Policy Research, Trivium China

What you missed

Foreign affairs

China 's strategic patience with the EU is showing signs of strain.

U.S.-China

On Wednesday, a group of 73 House Democrats signed a letter to US President Donald Trumpurging him not to allow the import of Chinese cars to the US, warning of "profound and irreversible" damage to US automakers.

Econ and finance

An influential policy adviser is calling on Beijing toload up on off-balance-sheet debt to juice the economy.

Tech

On April 24, DeepSeek finallyshipped its latest model - V4.

On April 26, the Central Committee and State Council jointly released a high-level policy directive on strengthening the management of"new employment groups."

Commodities

On Tuesday and Wednesday, multiple outlets reported that state-owned oil majorsSinopec and CNPC are applying for permits to export gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.

Politics

For the first time in decades,an outsider is set to lead the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA).

As always, it was a busy week in China.

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