Chokepoints — Rare Earths, Critical Minerals, and the Export-Control War
4 tier-5 · 11 tier-4
The Wire China's deepest recurring obsession is the two-way chokepoint war: how Beijing weaponized its near-monopoly on rare earths, magnets, and processing technology as a mirror image of US semiconductor controls, and how Washington's export-control machinery — the Entity List, the Affiliates "50 percent" Rule, the Foreign Direct Product Rule — metastasized in response. Across these pieces the writers trace the genealogy of the leverage on both sides: from Masato Sagawa's neodymium-magnet breakthrough that China later cornered, to the October 2025 extraterritorial rare-earth licensing regime, to the Nexperia/Wingtech seizure that became the live test case for how legacy-chip ownership fights and mineral retaliation now escalate together. The argument is that supply-chain dominance has become the central currency of US-China coercion, and that credible "de-risking" requires allies (Japan, South Korea) the US prefers to sideline.
TIER 4 Sun, 18 Aug 2024 23:14:44 +0000
The cover story ("The Green Leap") asks whether the U.S., having fallen far behind China in EVs, solar, and wind, could skip ahead by winning the next generation of clean technologies rather than fighting to catch up on the current one. It pairs the investigation with a data-rich infographic mapping the who's-who of the rare earth industry across mining, processing, end use, and recycling, plus a Q&A with David Zweig on the U.S.-China academic chill and a reported piece on Beijing's chip-industry consolidation. Useful for understanding the structural state of the clean-tech race and China's rare-earth chokehold.
clean techEVs and renewablesrare earthssemiconductorsUS-China competition
TIER 4 Sun, 25 Aug 2024 23:14:44 +0000
Eliot Chen's cover story on the BioSecure Act — a top congressional priority that could reorder the global pharmaceutical supply chain — and its profound impact on WuXi AppTec, the Chinese contract drugmaker most American patients have never heard of. It matters as a supply-chain-decoupling explainer for biopharma, alongside an Ed Conway Q&A on the six materials underpinning modern life and a piece on China's new Chancay port in Peru.
BioSecure ActWuXi AppTecpharmaceutical supply chaindecouplingChancay port
TIER 4 Wed, 26 Feb 2025 20:14:50 +0000
Standalone cover-story excerpt from Edward Fishman's book Chokepoints, tracing how Washington's 'sanctions technocrats' built unilateral economic-warfare tools — from the campaign against Iranian banks to the first Trump strike on Huawei and eventually all of China. A substantive, well-sourced explainer of the doctrine behind modern U.S. financial statecraft against Beijing.
sanctionseconomic warfareEdward FishmanHuaweiIran
TIER 4 Mon, 3 Mar 2025 00:15:00 +0000
Weekly issue led by a reported deep dive into China's hunt for uranium to fuel its ambitious nuclear-power buildout and the implications for the U.S. and others, paired with a Q&A with Anders Hove on China's energy security and an Edward Fishman book excerpt on economic warfare. The combination of original energy-security reporting plus an expert Q&A makes it worth reading.
uraniumnuclear powerenergy securityAnders Hoveeconomic warfare
TIER 4 Sun, 13 Apr 2025 23:15:24 +0000
A full weekly issue whose cover story (Eliot Chen) grades Made in China 2025 a decade on—its origins, achievements, failures, and how the policy lives on under new names despite US tariffs and punitive measures. It pairs a rare-earths-retaliation Big Picture, a Matt Turpin Q&A on Trump/tariffs/Taiwan, a reported piece on China's self-driving safety risks, and a Stephen Roach op-ed comparing Trump's disruption to a US 'cultural revolution.' A strong retrospective on a landmark policy plus useful surrounding analysis.
Made in China 2025industrial policyrare earthsself-driving carsTaiwan
TIER 4 Sun, 25 May 2025 23:15:02 +0000
A full weekly issue whose cover story (Sean Williams) reports China's quiet cooperative-exploration deal with the Cook Islands, framing it as a Pacific deep-seabed-minerals coup that drives a wedge between the Cook Islands and New Zealand. The package also includes Eliot Chen on a bipartisan bill that would force chipmakers to geolocate Nvidia/AMD GPUs to stop diversion to China, a GD Culture Group Big Picture, a Q&A with 'Apple in China' author Patrick McGee, and an export-controls op-ed. Strong original reporting plus a useful chip-tracking policy explainer.
seabed miningCook Islandschip export controlsNvidiarare earths
TIER 5 Sun, 29 Jun 2025 23:15:06 +0000
A high-value weekly issue whose cover story traces how China seized a monopoly over neodymium magnets and rare earths after Japanese inventor Masato Sagawa's breakthrough, leaving the US scrambling for alternatives or rare-earth-free batteries. It pairs this with strong features on China's deflationary retail price wars, Eliot Chen on the EV price-war 'self-regulation' truce that won't fix overcapacity, a Julian Gewirtz Q&A on Xi's post-1989 'siege mentality,' and Yun Sun on China's disdain for Iran. Lasting reference on rare-earth leverage and China's deflation.
rare-earthsmagnetsEV-price-wardeflationovercapacity
TIER 5 Sun, 13 Jul 2025 23:15:03 +0000
A high-value weekly issue whose cover story explains how Walmart bucks US-China decoupling — doubling China sales via Sam's Club while its global sourcing stays indispensable — as rivals like Carrefour collapse. Its standout data feature models the proposed 'fifty percent rule' export-control expansion, mapping 130+ new SMIC and Huawei subsidiaries (including two international schools) that would be swept in, plus a Nicholas Borst Q&A on Xi's shrinking economic 'cage' and op-eds on China's elastic export controls. Strong original-framework reference value.
export-controlsWalmartdecouplingSMICEntity-List
TIER 4 Sun, 24 Aug 2025 23:14:59 +0000
The cover story examines China's Myanmar problem: Beijing's pipeline-to-the-Bay-of-Bengal and rare-earth interests depend on 'ceasefire capitalism' stability between Myanmar's junta and ethnic armed groups, a balance now collapsing as rebels like the Kachin Independence Army seize rare-earth territory. Supporting pieces cover tariffs raising baseball-equipment costs, China's ultra-high-voltage grid advantage over America's patchwork system, a Larry Kudlow Q&A on first-term China policy, and a Nancy Qian piece on China's fertility paradox — a substantive issue led by original strategic reporting.
Myanmarrare earthsceasefire capitalismpower gridtariffs
TIER 4 Tue, 30 Sep 2025 20:30:03 +0000
A focused explainer of the new Affiliates ('50 percent') Rule that automatically extends Entity List export restrictions to all majority-owned subsidiaries of listed firms, multiplying the blacklist's reach several-fold (Huawei alone had 131 unlisted subsidiaries). With expert commentary on the gap between paper control and de facto control plus the chilling/compliance effects, it is a useful policy explainer on a consequential export-control mechanism.
50 percent ruleAffiliates RuleEntity Listexport controlsHuawei
TIER 4 Sun, 12 Oct 2025 23:14:59 +0000
The cover story details the three-continent corporate-control war over Sinovac, the Covid-vaccine maker sitting on a ~$10 billion windfall, pitting Beijing-based management against U.S. activist investors in a microcosm of rule-of-law-versus-state-control tensions. The issue also delivers a strong legacy/foundational-chip explainer (China's share doubling from 17 to 40 percent, anti-dumping probe), a soybean-tariff data piece, and a Laura Murphy Q&A on Xinjiang forced labor — a dense, substantive multi-feature issue.
Sinovaclegacy chipscorporate governancesoybeansXinjiang forced labor
TIER 5 Wed, 15 Oct 2025 16:00:29 +0000
A substantive long-form Q&A with Volt Rush author Henry Sanderson analyzing China's October 2025 rare-earth controls, which extend extraterritorial licensing to any product with more than 0.1 percent rare-earth value and restrict refining/processing technology exports. Sanderson frames the move as a deliberate mirror of U.S. semiconductor controls that blocks Western de-risking, gives Beijing a flexible license-based throttle, and argues any credible alternative supply chain must include Japan and South Korea rather than a 'U.S.-first' approach — lasting analytical reference value on critical-minerals leverage.
rare earthscritical mineralsexport controlssupply chainsChina leverage
TIER 4 Sun, 19 Oct 2025 23:32:21 +0000
The cover story explains the origins and dramatic expansion of the U.S. Entity List — from ~1,400 to over 20,000 Chinese companies — and its derivatives (Foreign Direct Product Rule, Affiliates Rule), with Nexperia/Wingtech as the live test case that triggered Dutch seizure and Chinese rare-earth retaliation. The issue bundles a useful explainer of export-control machinery plus a data piece on China's IPO rebound (77 billion yuan raised) and a Ma Jun Q&A, making it a substantive multi-piece reference on the trade war's escalation tools.
Entity Listexport controlsNexperiaWingtechIPO recovery
TIER 5 Mon, 26 Jan 2026 00:14:52 +0000
A full weekly issue whose cover story by Luke Patey examines Europe's critical-raw-materials gap — China mines/refines most of ten of the twelve materials NATO deems critical to European defense (notably tungsten), echoing WWII supply-chain dynamics and complicating Europe's defense buildup. Supporting pieces include Noah Berman's data on six Chinese AI/chip IPOs raising $3.6B in Hong Kong since New Year (GigaDevice's $30B+ cap), a Quectel 'Company in the News' profile, a David Feith Q&A on Trump's China policy and TikTok's DC clout, a Lee Jong-Wha op-ed urging bolder Chinese stimulus, and a resurfaced PLA-purge primer. High-value supply-chain and capital-markets reporting.
critical raw materialstungsten/defenseChinese AI IPOsHong Kong marketsPLA purges
TIER 4 Sun, 15 Mar 2026 23:15:09 +0000
Full weekly led by Noah Berman's on-the-ground cover story from Benson, North Carolina on Vulcan Elements, a rare-earth-magnet startup trying to break China's dominance of the supply chain. Also: an investigation showing UFLPA enforcement has collapsed under Trump (no new blacklist additions, sharply lower inspections), a Big Picture on waning Sino-Iranian ties, a Q&A with Biden science adviser Kei Koizumi on AI-military risks, a profile of two China-born scientist cousins, and George Magnus on China's economic plans.
rare-earth magnetssupply chainsUFLPA enforcementSino-Iranian relationsUS-China tech competition
Taiwan, the PLA, and the Military Balance
3 tier-5 · 6 tier-4
The hard-security spine of the archive: whether and how Taiwan would fight, and what the military balance actually looks like. The reporting moves between the island (Lai's Ukraine-style "societal resistance," energy as the Achilles' heel of a blockade scenario, the "tinderbox" framing) and the PLA itself (the largest modern purge of the military, two Central Military Commission generals sacked, endemic corruption that Xi plays whack-a-mole against; arms exports falling amid the anti-corruption drag). Around the island, an alliance story builds — Japan, the Philippines, and Taipei drawn together by the shared threat — alongside concrete invasion-logistics reporting (Cosco vessels as Trojan horses) and the defense-industrial gap, above all American shipbuilding, where one Shanghai shipyard outproduces all US yards combined.
TIER 4 Sun, 29 Sep 2024 23:14:49 +0000
Luke Patey's cover story examining the 'Taiwan contingency' for global business — noting U.S. investment into Taiwan hit a post-2008 high of $1.55 billion last year even as war risk rises — and asking whether American multinationals are prepared for a conflict. It matters as a corporate risk-readiness analysis on the ultimate geopolitical tail risk, paired with an Oriana Skylar Mastro Q&A on China's 'upstart' great-power strategy.
Taiwangeopolitical riskmultinationalsU.S. investmentcontingency planning
TIER 4 Sun, 27 Oct 2024 23:15:02 +0000
Brent Crane's cover story on the panic in Washington over collapsed U.S. shipbuilding capacity — a single Shanghai-area shipyard outproduces all American yards combined — and the legislation and 'all-hands-on-deck' efforts to catch up, with implications for a potential U.S.-China conflict. It matters as a defense-industrial-base explainer, paired with infographics on how a Chinese firm funneled German drone engines to Russia and a Ken Wilcox Q&A on SVB's doomed China expansion.
shipbuildingdefense industrial baseU.S.-China conflictnaval powersupply chains
TIER 4 Sun, 11 May 2025 23:15:05 +0000
A full weekly issue whose cover story (Eliot Chen) documents 'the largest purge of the PLA in modern Chinese history,' with two of Xi's own Central Military Commission generals sacked and a third missing, arguing PLA corruption is endemic and Xi is stuck playing whack-a-mole. It also carries Jeremy Wallace's analysis of China's green-energy 'megabases,' two tariff-mechanics Big Pictures, and a Q&A with Paul Clifford on China's logistics revolution. Original political reporting plus a substantive energy explainer.
PLA purgeXi Jinpinganti-corruptiongreen energy megabaseslogistics
TIER 4 Mon, 17 Nov 2025 00:14:49 +0000
The cover, reported from Taipei by Brent Crane, examines whether Taiwan would fight a Chinese invasion and the Lai administration's push to build 'societal resistance' Ukraine-style. The issue also frames US-China trade as a 'chips for rare earths' mutually-assured-destruction chokepoint standoff, a Big Picture on Nvidia's coveted Blackwell chip, a Ning Leng Q&A on party-state control of private firms, and Kevin Gallagher on China's leverage in global institutions.
Taiwan defenserare earths/chipsBlackwell/Nvidiaparty-statechokepoints
TIER 5 Mon, 12 Jan 2026 00:14:56 +0000
A full weekly issue led by Noah Berman's cover story on how the Party secured the conviction of Hong Kong dissident Jimmy Lai under the 2020 National Security Law — denied jury trial and bail — as evidence of Hong Kong's 'mainlandization.' It also runs Eliot Chen's update on the Sino-US fusion race (the Trump administration warning US scientists off China's Hefei conference; divergent private- vs. public-funded paths), a Big Picture and a Victor Shih op-ed on China's exposure after the US seizure of Maduro in Venezuela, and a Jane Perlez Q&A on the hollowing-out of foreign press corps in China. Dense, original multi-thread reporting.
Jimmy LaiHong Kong NSLfusion raceChina-Venezuelaforeign press in China
TIER 5 Mon, 19 Jan 2026 00:14:57 +0000
A full weekly issue led by Nicolas Niarchos's book excerpt (The Elements of Power) reconstructing China's 2008 infrastructure-for-commodities swap with the DRC and the unlikely rise of Huayou Cobalt founder Chen Xuehua from beansprout seller to global mining magnate. It also covers the Manus AI / Meta $2B tie-up that Beijing's commerce ministry moved to review, a Big Picture on BYD's domestic struggles (Q3 profit down 33%, Geely closing the gap), a J. Michael Cole Q&A on Taiwan as a 'tinderbox,' a Ghiretti/Ellis warning on connected-energy-system control, and an obituary for activist investor David Webb. Multiple original, deeply-reported threads.
China-DRC/cobaltHuayou CobaltManus AI/MetaBYDTaiwan
TIER 5 Mon, 16 Feb 2026 00:14:57 +0000
The full weekly issue anchored by the Epstein-and-China cover story (Berman/Chen/Cheung combing 3M+ DOJ files for Epstein's China business plans and contacts including Mandelson, David Stern, Desmond Shum, and Robert Kuhn), plus a data-driven Big Picture on China's rare 2024 arms-export downturn (linked to Xi's military anti-corruption purge and weak demand from cash-strapped Pakistan). Also carries Rebecca Fannin's book excerpt on Chinese VC and Qiming Venture Partners, a Q&A with Yi-Ling Liu on China's cyberspace 'walled garden,' and a piece on the US-China AI robotics gap. A dense, multi-investigation issue with original reporting across several high-value threads.
Epstein and Chinaarms exportsPLA anti-corruptionChinese VCChina internet
TIER 4 Sun, 12 Apr 2026 23:15:30 +0000
Full weekly with a cover essay adapted from Eyck Freymann's book 'Defending Taiwan' arguing that a US president would face structural disadvantages versus the CCP in deterring or responding to a Taiwan invasion. Also: Eliot Chen on whether Chinese EVs imported under Canada's new China trade deal will be blocked at the US border, a Big Picture on Big Pharma's Xinjiang clinical-trial loophole, a Q&A with Martin Thorley on the UK-China 'golden era', and Yanmei Xie on Xi's flawed 'abundance' strategy.
Taiwan defenseChinese EVsCanada-US-China tradeXinjiang forced laborXi economic policy
TIER 4 Sun, 10 May 2026 23:15:20 +0000
Full weekly issue led by Chris Horton's cover story on how the shared threat of a China-controlled Taiwan is pulling Japan, the Philippines, and Taipei into tighter security cooperation (e.g. Japan's first large contingent at the Balikatan exercises). Includes Bob Davis on a mooted US-China 'Board of Trade', the shrinking US foreign press corps in China, a Rokid AI-glasses profile, and a Q&A with Sebastian Mallaby on the need for a Sino-US AI-safety detente.
TaiwanJapan-Philippines alliancePLAUS-China tradeAI safety
Energy, Autos, and the Industrial Economy
3 tier-5 · 8 tier-4
China's industrial machine and its contradictions: the EV/robotaxi/autonomous-driving complex, the energy transition shadowed by coal, and the structural maladies — overcapacity, deflation, the "two-speed economy," "involution" — that mark the end of the high-growth era. The reporting follows Chinese EVs as they erode Japanese dominance across Southeast Asia and probe their way into North America, the robotaxi fleets tripling toward 11,000 vehicles, the clean-energy "megabases" and the nuclear/fusion buildout, all against George Magnus, Stephen Roach, and Alicia García-Herrero arguing the headline 5-percent growth masks a bifurcated economy that pours capital into Xi's favored sectors while consumption and property languish. The fusion race recurs here as energy as much as geopolitics.
TIER 4 Sun, 6 Oct 2024 23:15:03 +0000
Rachel Cheung's cover story tracing the rise and quiet disappearance of Xi's 2021 'common prosperity' campaign — once ubiquitous in speeches and schools — and asking why it fizzled even as China's inequality and economic malaise deepen. It matters as a post-mortem on a signature Xi policy, alongside a Helen Toner (ex-OpenAI board) Q&A on the U.S.-China AI race and a reported piece on China's struggling steel industry.
common prosperityinequalityXi Jinping policyChina economyAI race
TIER 4 Mon, 18 Nov 2024 00:15:00 +0000
The cover story examines China's nascent 'silver economy'—exemplified by billionaire Chen Dongsheng's Taikang Life luxury retirement-home empire—and explains why a sector that should be a demographic gold mine remains far from a sure bet for early entrants. The issue adds infographics on China's growing Gulf financing, a Seth Jones Q&A on rebuilding the US defense base against China, a report on Hainan's fading free-trade-zone hopes, and an op-ed on Trump round two. A solid look at the business of China's aging demographics.
silver economyaging demographicsTaikang LifeGulf financingdefense industrial base
TIER 4 Mon, 25 Nov 2024 00:14:52 +0000
Drawing on Lizhi Liu's book 'From Click to Boom,' the cover story explains how China built a $2 trillion e-commerce market (~50% of global online retail) so fast, arguing platforms like Alibaba's Taobao created trust and a private substitute for rule of law that the state had not supplied—a substantive political-economy framework, not just a business story. The issue also carries a Hong Kong democracy-movement sentencing timeline, an Odd Arne Westad Q&A on the Mao-to-Deng transition, and pieces on US-China robotics collaboration and Biden's economic-security framework. Strong explanatory value.
e-commerceAlibabarule of lawHong Kongpolitical economy
TIER 4 Mon, 24 Feb 2025 00:15:02 +0000
Weekly issue led by Jörg Wuttke's op-ed arguing China's chronic industrial overcapacity is nearing a breaking point that, like the property crash, will be ugly — paired with a deep-dive into the 31 private entrepreneurs at Xi's symposium (analyzing the invite list and seating chart), a High-Flyer/DeepSeek Big Picture, and a Tom Cotton Q&A. The combination of reported analysis and expert argument on a structural risk to China's economy makes it worth reading.
overcapacityChina economyXi symposiumDeepSeekTom Cotton
TIER 4 Sun, 22 Jun 2025 23:15:20 +0000
A full weekly issue whose cover story tracks the 'delisting fever' threatening to force Chinese companies off US stock exchanges and the risks to investors, as the once-welcomed listings are recast as Trojan horses and Beijing pulls firms home. It adds the Pop Mart/Labubu soft-power success story, the Israel-Iran war's threat to China's sanction-skirting 'teapot' refineries, an Ely Ratner Q&A on an Asian NATO, and China's $138B 'deep tech' fund. Solid reference across capital markets, consumer brands, and energy geopolitics.
delistingcapital-marketsPop-Martteapot-refineriesdeep-tech
TIER 5 Sun, 20 Jul 2025 23:14:57 +0000
A landmark weekly issue whose cover story frames the US-China nuclear fusion race — contrasting Hefei's 100-million-degree plasma record and the Mianyang mega-facility against US ignition breakthroughs — as potentially decisive for 21st-century power. It is densely packed with high-value secondary pieces: a MiniMax IPO profile, the Bitmain-Sophgo-Trump crypto story, China's EDA chip-design software push, a major Janet Yellen Q&A, and the 709 crackdown anniversary op-ed. Lasting reference across energy, AI, and semiconductors.
nuclear-fusionclean-energyMiniMaxEDA-softwareJanet-Yellen
TIER 4 Tue, 21 Oct 2025 16:45:06 +0000
A data-driven Big Picture argues that China's roughly 5 percent headline growth conceals a bifurcated economy: sectors aligned with Xi Jinping's priorities (EVs, chips, solar) are surging while consumer-facing and property sectors languish. The two-speed framing matters because it shows the headline number masks structural imbalance and policy-directed distortion in capital allocation.
China economyindustrial policyEVsproperty sectordata feature
TIER 4 Sun, 26 Oct 2025 23:15:06 +0000
The cover by Peiyue Wu profiles China's fast-rising automated delivery vehicle industry — driven by little-known startups making real chip and tech breakthroughs — and asks whether ADVs can escape the overcapacity-then-dump cycle that hit solar, wind, and EVs. The issue also covers a possible Canada-China EV/agriculture trade thaw, a Big Picture on the two-speed economy, a Melanie Hart Q&A on economic coercion, and Dinny McMahon on China's search for a new growth model.
automated delivery vehiclesovercapacityCanada-China tradetwo-speed economygrowth model
TIER 5 Mon, 5 Jan 2026 00:14:44 +0000
A full weekly issue led by Sean Williams's cover story on how Chinese EVs (led by BYD) are eroding Japanese automakers' decades-long dominance across Southeast Asia, exposing Japan Inc's broader 'production-not-innovation' angst against China's industrial complex. It pairs with a Big Picture on a Chinese chip-IPO boom (Moore Threads, MetaX), Rachel Cheung on China's 12.7M graduates facing AI-pressured job markets and 17% youth unemployment, a harrowing Q&A with detained Australian journalist Cheng Lei on her three years in prison, and a Lizzi Lee op-ed on overdone US 'China angst.' Strong, varied original reporting.
Chinese EVs vs JapanSoutheast Asia auto marketchip IPOsgraduate unemploymentCheng Lei
TIER 5 Mon, 2 Feb 2026 00:14:56 +0000
A full weekly issue led by Rachel Cheung's cover story on China's robotaxi push — fleets potentially tripling to ~11,000 vehicles in 2026 and projected ~$47B sector revenue by 2035, but slowed by accidents and taxi-driver job fears (e.g. Baidu's Wuhan pricing backlash). It also runs Noah Berman's analysis of a possible roadmap for Chinese EVs into the US market via local manufacturing (citing Canada's Beijing deal as precedent), a Big Picture on reviving China's property sector, a Q&A with Tsinghua's David Daokui Li, and a Stephen Roach op-ed on dueling US/China exceptionalism. Rich, multi-thread original reporting.
robotaxisChinese EVs in USautonomous drivingproperty sectorUS-China systems contest
TIER 4 Sun, 7 Jun 2026 23:15:42 +0000
The cover story examines AI's double-edged impact on China's shrinking labor market, contrasting solo entrepreneurs who run AI-agent businesses against displaced workers chronicling their experiences in an emerging genre of online 'unemployment diaries.' The issue adds a feature on how the Israel-Iran war and Strait of Hormuz crisis raise input costs for Chinese industry, a Big Picture on 540 PLA tenders seeking Nvidia chips, a Q&A with former Commerce official Liz Cannon on tech national-security risk, and a column on China Inc's Global South forklift strategy. It matters for original on-the-ground reporting on AI's labor effects plus concrete export-control data.
AI labor impactunemploymentNvidia chipsPLA procurementGlobal South
The Semiconductor Front — Chips, Smuggling, and Compute Control
1 tier-5 · 10 tier-4
If rare earths are China's chokepoint, advanced chips are America's — and these pieces map the front line. The flagship reporting reconstructs the six-year genesis of US semiconductor export controls and whether deals like the Nvidia/AMD 15-percent-cut are concession or compromise, then follows the leakage: the Super Micro "hair dryer" smuggling scheme, the Houston trial, the TSMC-to-Huawei intermediary, and the cloud-compute loophole that lets China rent banned GPUs. A second strand looks inward at why China's own catch-up underperforms — misaligned local governments and SOEs, the EDA-software gap — arguing that money alone can't buy a fab. Together they frame chips as the one domain where US leverage is real but constantly eroding through diversion and policy churn.
TIER 4 Sun, 4 Aug 2024 23:14:43 +0000
The cover story examines Novo Nordisk's dominant 77 percent share of China's booming GLP-1 (Ozempic) market and argues that lead is unlikely to hold as domestic and foreign challengers reshape China's pharmaceutical landscape at a transitional moment. Supporting pieces include an infographic on China's tech-driven push for food security, a reported feature on ASML's reliance on China as its biggest customer despite export curbs, and a Q&A with Dmitri Alperovitch on deterring a Taiwan invasion. Matters for tracking how a flagship Western pharma franchise fares against rising Chinese competition.
pharmaceuticalsOzempic / GLP-1Novo NordiskASML / chip equipmentTaiwan deterrence
TIER 4 Sun, 13 Oct 2024 23:14:58 +0000
Eliot Chen's cover story explaining how China can still tap controlled advanced-chip computational power through U.S.-built cloud services, and argues this 'loophole' could actually be a U.S. advantage Washington should more actively exploit for leverage. It matters as a framework for thinking about AI-compute control beyond hardware export bans, paired with infographics on China's ports edge and a Sara Castro Q&A on the WWII-era Dixie Mission.
AI computecloud computingexport controlschipstech policy
TIER 4 Mon, 4 Nov 2024 00:15:02 +0000
An investigative cover story by Eliot Chen and Noah Berman tracing how TSMC chips allegedly reached Huawei via an intermediary company with crypto and Chinese-state ties, using ownership records to question why TSMC supplied it at all. It matters as a concrete case study of how narrow the compliance space has become for chipmakers caught between U.S. export controls and Chinese demand, alongside a Paul French Q&A on Wallis Simpson's year in interwar China.
TSMCHuaweiexport controlssemiconductorsownership records
TIER 4 Mon, 17 Feb 2025 00:15:00 +0000
The cover story examines the real state of quantum computing research in China and its leading companies, arguing that recurring 'breakthrough' headlines trigger Western panic cycles that may overstate the actual competitive threat (echoing Jensen Huang's view that practical quantum is 15-30 years off). The issue bundles infographics on Zhipu AI (first Chinese AI unicorn on the US entity list), a Sue-Lin Wong Q&A on Southeast Asian scam industries, and reported pieces on the NED funding freeze and Xinjiang's tourism boom. It matters for rightsizing tech-threat perception against hype.
quantum computingtech competitionZhipu AIthreat assessmentXinjiang
TIER 4 Fri, 21 Mar 2025 19:00:18 +0000
Original investigative cover profile of new Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan, documenting roughly 140 investments in Chinese chip companies since 1987, including ties to U.S.-sanctioned firms like SMIC and Shanghai Biren. It matters because the man tapped to revive America's chip champion is simultaneously seen as the 'poster child' for tighter government scrutiny — a vivid case study in the contradictions of U.S. tech policy toward China.
IntelLip-Bu TansemiconductorsChina investmentsSMIC
TIER 4 Sun, 8 Jun 2025 23:14:59 +0000
A full weekly issue whose cover story tells how immigrant scientist Alain Kaloyeros built upstate New York into a major US semiconductor cluster over four decades, framing it as an American advantage Xi's China cannot replicate. It profiles Shanghai AI startup StepFun (first Chinese firm to release a one-trillion-parameter model), reports from the AI+ Expo on shrinking US confidence, and runs a Zhou Bo PLA Q&A and a Yao Yang piece on a possible 'Mar-a-Lago Accord.' Strong reference on US chip clusters and China's AI startup landscape.
semiconductorsStepFunAIindustrial-policyNew-York
TIER 4 Tue, 15 Jul 2025 16:30:06 +0000
A standalone News & Analysis piece reporting that Bitmain — supplier of ~80% of the world's bitcoin-mining machines — is opening a US headquarters and winning customers including Eric Trump's American Bitcoin venture, with a planned $320M equipment deal. It reveals how Bitmain is simultaneously trying to sever ties to blacklisted Xiamen Sophgo, whose chips reportedly reached Huawei via TSMC. A focused investigation of how a Chinese hardware giant navigates Trump-era crypto support and trade restrictions.
Bitmainbitcoin-miningSophgoTrump-familyexport-controls
TIER 5 Sun, 7 Sep 2025 23:14:55 +0000
The cover story, built on interviews with dozens of Trump and Biden officials, reconstructs the six-year genesis and contested future of U.S. semiconductor export controls and weighs whether Trump's Nvidia/AMD 15-percent-cut deal is a dangerous concession or a reasonable compromise that avoids triggering Chinese 'Sputnik moments.' Supporting pieces show foreign-invested firms account for ~30 percent of China's exports (complicating the 'ripping off America' narrative), a Lucy Hornby feature on Xi's mother Qi Xin, and a strong Dan Wang Q&A on China's outcome-obsession versus America's procedure-fetish — high reference value across policy and analysis.
semiconductor export controlsNvidia AMD dealDan WangChina exportsQi Xin
TIER 4 Mon, 22 Dec 2025 00:14:49 +0000
The final 2025 weekly leads with Eliot Chen's on-the-ground cover story from the iGEM synthetic-biology 'Olympics', arguing China's flood-the-zone dominance there signals its broader biotech ambitions and a potential lead over the US. The issue also carries Alberto Moel on China's robotics 'gap', a Big Picture on LandSpace's reusable-rocket attempt, a Q&A with the Philippine ambassador, and George Magnus on a stagnant economic work conference.
synthetic biologyiGEMbiotech racereusable rocketsrobotics
TIER 4 Mon, 2 Mar 2026 00:14:50 +0000
Full weekly anchored by Paddy Stephens's cover story on China's 'rocket deficit'—371 satellites launched in 2025 versus SpaceX's 3,100, and Beijing's bet on commercial firms (Landspace, reusable rockets) to close the gap amid sector overcapacity. Also: Eliot Chen on a Houston Nvidia-chip smuggling case headed to trial, a Big Picture on Chinese AI firms' lunar-new-year marketing blitz, a Q&A with Jake Sullivan, Alicia Garcia-Herrero on China's involution/profitless-growth trap, and Jorg Wuttke on Sino-German ties.
China space industryreusable rocketschip smugglingChina AI marketinginvolution/profits
TIER 4 Sun, 26 Apr 2026 23:15:16 +0000
Full weekly anchored by Eliot Chen's original investigation into a $2.5 billion Nvidia-chip smuggling scheme allegedly run by a senior Super Micro executive (the 'hair dryer' label-swap method), the largest of a wave of China chip-smuggling cases. Also covers Congress's lonely China hawks feeling abandoned by Trump 2.0, a Big Picture on China's 400 Earth-observation satellites, a Q&A with Nicolas Niarchos on dirty clean-energy supply chains, and an op-ed on Anthropic's Claude Mythos cyber advantage.
chip smugglingNvidia export controlsSuper MicroChina hawksEO satellites
The AI Race — Models, Compute, Talent, and Robotics
1 tier-5 · 13 tier-4
The Wire China treats the US-China AI contest as a multi-front war fought over models, talent, adoption, and increasingly robots. Recurring threads: scorecards rightsizing who is actually ahead (the US leads on most factors, China dominates power generation); the "AI tigers" and DeepSeek ecosystem maps; the gap between China's technically competitive models and weak domestic consumer uptake (subsidy-driven red-envelope marketing, regulator scolding); and the talent-control headache exposed by the Manus/Meta tie-up, where a Chinese-founded firm severed its ties to go global. A parallel robotics strand runs throughout — Unitree's cut-price robodogs that US police love, humanoid software "brains" that lag the impressive hardware, and the involution that threatens to collapse margins the way it did in solar and EVs.
TIER 4 Mon, 20 Jan 2025 00:15:09 +0000
The cover story profiles Kai-Fu Lee, the former Apple/Microsoft/Google executive and 'AI Superpowers' author who renounced US citizenship and bet his career on China, examining the harsh environment facing his two Beijing AI firms as the US-China rivalry forces a choice of sides. The issue adds a Big Picture on TikTok 'refugees' flocking to Xiaohongshu, a Mark Clifford Q&A on Jimmy Lai, and seven infographics on China's record 2024 trade surplus. A strong character study of how the AI rivalry reshapes individual bets.
Kai-Fu LeeChina AIXiaohongshuTikToktrade surplus
TIER 4 Mon, 10 Feb 2025 00:15:02 +0000
The cover story is a 'who's who' of China's AI industry profiling 50+ key figures behind the ideas, funding, and regulation from which DeepSeek and peers emerged, serving as a reference map of the ecosystem. The issue also carries a RAND op-ed arguing DeepSeek proves the US needs smarter (not abandoned) export controls, a Big Picture on CK Hutchison and the Panama Canal ports question, and a Q&A on China's energy sector. Valuable as a structured directory of China's AI leadership.
China AIDeepSeekexport controlsCK HutchisonPanama Canal
TIER 4 Sun, 30 Mar 2025 23:14:57 +0000
Cover story asks whether Baidu's longstanding AI bet — especially autonomous vehicles and its Apollo Go robotaxi service — can revive a fallen tech titan that has lost its place among China's top firms. It matters as a window into how a former BAT giant is repositioning in the AI era, paired with a Q&A with Jeremy Daum on how Beijing regulates AI and a Big Picture on AI tiger Baichuan's strategic pivot.
BaiduAIautonomous vehiclesBaichuanChina tech
TIER 4 Sun, 27 Jul 2025 23:14:58 +0000
A full weekly issue whose cover story argues that China is using state-owned shipping giant Cosco's commercial vessels as potential Trojan horses to prepare for a Taiwan invasion, citing port access, anchor-dragging cable cuts, and PLA troop-concealment drills. It adds a data-driven profile of cut-price robot champion Unitree ahead of its IPO, Eliot Chen on the $167B Tibet mega-dam, a David Shambaugh Q&A, and Stephen Roach on the US AI race. High reference value on Taiwan invasion logistics and Chinese robotics.
Taiwan-invasionCoscoUnitreeroboticsTibet-dam
TIER 4 Sun, 10 Aug 2025 23:15:04 +0000
A full weekly issue whose cover story dissects the failure of TuSimple, the Chinese-founded autonomous-trucking startup that crashed after data-sharing accusations and boardroom warfare, with founder Hou Xiaodi now fighting for its $450M cash hoard. It also profiles whether sanctioned, post-Tang Xiao'ou SenseTime can revive its lost AI dominance, the state-linked AI firm GoLaxy, and a Q&A on Taiwan with author Chris Horton. Useful as reference on how Chinese-linked tech ventures fail in the US and the trajectory of China's faded AI champion.
autonomous-truckingSenseTimeAITaiwanUS-China-tech
TIER 4 Sun, 14 Sep 2025 23:15:02 +0000
The lead 'Who's Who' feature maps China's robotics industry — 50 companies/universities and the industrialists, entrepreneurs and academics behind it (four U.S.-blacklisted) — as a reference on a Party-designated strategic sector. The issue also reports how Temu and Shein creatively adapted after the U.S. ended the de minimis exemption (diversifying to markets like Brazil), profiles chip designer Cambricon as a potential Nvidia rival, and runs a healthcare Q&A and an AGI-race opinion piece — a substantive, data-rich issue.
roboticsTemu Sheinde minimisCambriconAGI race
TIER 4 Sun, 28 Sep 2025 23:15:01 +0000
The cover story argues Taiwan's energy policy is its strategic Achilles' heel: neither the DPP (anti-nuclear) nor the KMT (anti-renewables) will make the hard choices needed to harden the island against a Chinese blockade aimed at cutting fossil-fuel imports, posing an existential question for its democracy. Companion pieces profile AI unicorn Moonshot/Kimi and founder Yang Zhilin, China's stalled flying-car ambitions, a Hongbin Li gaokao Q&A, and a coal-addiction opinion piece — a strong issue anchored by an original strategic argument.
Taiwanenergy securityMoonshot AIblockadegaokao
TIER 4 Sun, 5 Oct 2025 23:15:03 +0000
The cover story argues China's heavily state-backed humanoid-robot push is hitting a hard wall: hardware is impressive (robots that kickbox) but the software 'brains' lag, so this is not a repeat of the solar/EV scale-and-dump playbook. Supporting pieces cover the NBA's return to China after a six-year freeze, Hong Kong's embrace of stablecoins, a Lael Brainard Q&A on the dollar versus the yuan, and Stephen Roach contrasting China's five-year planning with U.S. drift — a substantive issue led by a genuine analytical thesis.
humanoid robotsNBA Chinastablecoinsdollar vs yuanfive-year plan
TIER 4 Mon, 10 Nov 2025 00:14:53 +0000
The cover by Grady McGregor examines China's 'crypto conundrum' — how Beijing, having banned crypto, watches the Trump family promote dollar-backed stablecoins as dollar-hegemony tools and declines to interrupt what it sees as a US mistake. The issue also covers the rising adoption of cheaper Chinese AI models cutting into the US lead, a Big Picture on Chinese airlines' weak post-Covid recovery, a Gracelin Baskaran rare-earths Q&A, and Yanran Yao on Chinese overseas students.
stablecoinscryptoChinese AI modelsairlinesrare earths
TIER 4 Wed, 14 Jan 2026 17:45:01 +0000
A News & Analysis piece (Berman/Chen/Cheung) on Meta's ~$2B tie-up with China-founded, now Singapore-based Manus AI, which Beijing's commerce ministry moved to review, charting how Manus severed its China ties to enable both international growth and the deal. The analysis weighs whether the tie-up is a win for Washington's AI strategy and a control headache for Beijing over its leading AI talent and firms. Substantive standalone analysis of a flashpoint deal, though it overlaps the Manus coverage in issue #42.
Manus AIMeta dealUS-China AI raceChina commerce ministry reviewAI talent control
TIER 5 Mon, 9 Feb 2026 00:14:56 +0000
A full weekly issue led by Eliot Chen's courtroom reporting from San Francisco on the Ding Linwei case — a Google engineer convicted of trade-secret theft and economic espionage for secretly building a China startup, a marquee Sino-US tech-espionage prosecution. The issue also carries a Big Picture on China's service-robot price wars (18.6M units produced, margins collapsing), a CATL 'Company in the News' profile amid US and Texas pushback, a Q&A with Ali Wyne disputing the idea of a DC 'China consensus,' and Yi Fuxian on China's collapsing birth rate (7.9M births vs. a projected 14.3M). Multiple substantive, original threads.
tech espionageDing Linwei/Googleservice robotsCATLChina demographics
TIER 4 Wed, 25 Feb 2026 16:00:36 +0000
A Big Picture feature by Savannah Billman on how Alibaba, ByteDance, and Tencent spent millions over the Lunar New Year on red-envelope cash giveaways and gimmicks to push their AI tools and agents, after which China's market regulator warned against the campaigns. The thesis: Chinese models are technically competitive globally but still trail U.S. rivals by millions of users domestically, so firms resort to subsidy-driven adoption hacks. It matters as a data point on the gap between China's AI capability and its consumer uptake.
Chinese AIAlibaba/ByteDance/Tencentuser adoptionAI marketingmarket regulator
TIER 4 Sun, 8 Mar 2026 23:15:04 +0000
Full weekly led by Brent Crane's cover story contrasting China's 'cash' (trade grown from $12bn to $315bn, ports, EVs, Huawei R&D) versus Trump's 'cosh' (the Maduro rendition, Panama port seizure) in the contest for influence in Latin America. Also: Rachel Cheung on the ByteDance Seedance-2.0 AI clip of Tom Cruise fighting Brad Pitt and the Hollywood copyright backlash, a Big Picture on China's nuclear arsenal doubling to ~600 warheads, a Q&A with Eswar Prasad, and Neil Thomas on China's green-tech-as-economic-policy shift.
China in Latin Americasoft vs hard powergenerative AI/copyrightnuclear arsenalChina climate policy
TIER 4 Sun, 22 Mar 2026 23:14:59 +0000
Full weekly built around Rachel Cheung's data-driven scorecard of the US-China AI race across six factors (power generation, data centers, semiconductors, model capability, user popularity, industry revenue), finding the US ahead in at least four while China dominates power generation. Also: Eliot Chen on North America's sudden warming to Chinese EVs, a Big Picture reviewing a year of roller-coaster Trump tariffs, a Q&A with diplomat Sarah Beran, and an op-ed on China's self-defeating hostility toward Japan's PM Takaichi.
US-China AI raceAI scorecardChinese EVsTrump tariffsChina-Japan relations
Finance Underworld and Crypto — Money Laundering, Stablecoins, and Trump-Family Tokens
1 tier-5 · 5 tier-4
This cluster follows the money where it goes dark: the Chinese underground-banking syndicates that became the cartels' laundering partners-of-choice in the fentanyl trade, and the leveraged-crypto and perpetual-swaps industry that Chinese exchanges pioneered, the CCP banned, and the diaspora then exported offshore at 100-to-1 leverage. A second strand maps the surprising convergence of Chinese crypto money and the Trump family — Justin Sun's token buys, Bitmain courting Eric Trump's mining venture, and Binance's CZ — even as Beijing watches dollar-backed stablecoins spread and declines to interrupt what it reads as an American mistake. The throughline is capital that routes around both states' controls, plus the digital-yuan and banking-sector reads that round out the financial picture.
TIER 4 Sun, 8 Sep 2024 23:15:04 +0000
Rachel Cheung's cover story on China's central bank digital currency, noting digital-yuan transactions quadrupled year-on-year to $982 billion, and weighs what its slow-burn adoption means for the U.S. dollar, cross-border payments and China's fintech giants. It matters as a grounded assessment of the world's leading CBDC, paired with a Yuan Yang Q&A on China's gender and rural-urban divides and a piece on self-driving-car data hurdles.
digital yuanCBDCfintechdollar dominancecross-border payments
TIER 5 Sun, 22 Sep 2024 23:14:57 +0000
Sean Williams's deep cover story on Chinese money-laundering syndicates that have become the partners-of-choice for Latin American cartels flooding the U.S. with fentanyl, situating the phenomenon within a millennium-old history of informal Chinese networks and its overlap with Beijing's capital controls, trade policy and state banks. It matters as a landmark explainer connecting fentanyl, capital flight and Chinese underground banking, with a Danny Alexander Q&A on the AIIB.
money launderingunderground bankingfentanylcapital controlscartels
TIER 4 Sun, 9 Mar 2025 23:15:22 +0000
Cover re-release of Binder and Northrop's in-depth profile of Chinese crypto entrepreneur Justin Sun, newly relevant after Sun bought $75M of Trump-family tokens and the SEC paused its fraud case against him. It matters as one of the best origin stories on Sun's China ties and Trumpian overlaps; the issue also re-runs reporting on Chinese hacking firm i-Soon and adds a Hal Brands Q&A on the 'axis of autocracies.'
Justin SuncryptocurrencyTrumpSECi-Soon
TIER 4 Sun, 27 Apr 2025 23:15:03 +0000
A full weekly issue whose cover story (Grady McGregor) examines how Chinese vape makers—$3 billion in US exports last year—are exploiting America's patchwork e-cigarette regulation to push out firms like Juul, replaying the copy-improve-displace pattern. It pairs a substantive Jason Bedford Q&A on reading China's opaque-but-data-rich banking sector, a CATL Hong Kong IPO Big Picture, Eliot Chen on AI-institute blacklisting, and a Kwok/Goodman op-ed on Li Ka-shing's ports deal. Solid original reporting plus an expert banking interview.
vaping industryChina banksJason BedfordCATL IPOAI governance
TIER 4 Mon, 15 Dec 2025 00:14:56 +0000
The weekly cover by Rachel Cheung examines China's aggressive rollout of AI in healthcare — exemplified by a doctor's avatar serving 30,000 virtual patients a day — and whether it can close rural-urban care gaps or merely replicate the system's flaws at scale. The issue also covers Chinese crypto miners operating in the US amid national-security scrutiny, a Hengrui Pharma profile, a Jin Liqun (AIIB) Q&A, and Brad Setser on renminbi manipulation.
healthcare AIcrypto miningHengrui PharmaAIIBrenminbi
TIER 4 Sun, 19 Apr 2026 23:15:10 +0000
Full weekly led by Grady McGregor's cover story tracing how leveraged crypto trading and perpetual swaps were pioneered by Chinese exchanges, banned by the CCP in 2017, then exported offshore where 100-to-1 leverage now drives the industry and fueled October's record crash triggered by Trump's trade-war threat. Also: a NeurIPS-style conference's reversed ban on sanctioned Chinese firms, a Big Picture on Chinese EV makers benefiting from the Iran war, a Q&A with Eyck Freymann on defending Taiwan, and Peter Mattis on Chinese smart-appliance security risks.
cryptocurrencyleverage/perpsChina tech banChinese EVsTaiwan defense
The Party, Its History, and Its Leaders
1 tier-5 · 9 tier-4
The intellectual core of the archive — book excerpts and historian Q&As probing what the CCP is, where it came from, and who Xi Jinping actually is. The pieces argue Xi is less legible than outsiders assume: Is he a Marxist? A balancer of ideology and development like his father Xi Zhongxun? A prisoner of post-1989 siege mentality? They reconstruct origins — Frank Dikötter on the Party's founding-era paranoia, the formative war years through Xi's centenarian mother Qi Xin, Dan Wang's "engineering state" through Guizhou, Minxin Pei on the return of totalitarian fear, Chenggang Xu's "institutional genes." Alongside the leadership studies sits a recurring private-sector signal-reading thread: the seating charts and guest lists at Xi's symposia as deliberate state messaging about which firms Beijing now favors, plus the Epstein-files investigation into princeling business networks.
TIER 4 Sun, 20 Oct 2024 23:15:02 +0000
A cover essay by Jude Blanchette (jointly published with China Books Review) examining 'Xi Jinping Thought' through two new books — by Tsang & Cheung and by Kevin Rudd — and arguing we understand Xi's guiding ideology and its debts to Marx, Lenin and Mao far less than we assume. It matters as an ideology-and-leadership analysis with lasting reference value, alongside a Pietra Rivoli Q&A on global supply chains and de-risking.
Xi JinpingMarxism-Leninismideologybook reviewCCP governance
TIER 4 Fri, 21 Feb 2025 18:14:57 +0000
A data-driven cover story ('A Seat at Xi's Table') dissects the seating chart and company roster from Xi Jinping's rare meeting with ~31 private-sector leaders at the Great Hall of the People, reading the symbolism as a signal of how Xi plans to mobilize private firms to revive a struggling economy. Paired with an archival profile of Rong Yiren, China's first 'Red Capitalist,' it frames the CCP's enduring ambivalence toward private capital. It matters because the guest list is a deliberate state signal about which firms and sectors Beijing now favors.
private sectorXi JinpingChinese economyCITICstate-capital relations
TIER 4 Sun, 1 Jun 2025 23:14:58 +0000
A full weekly issue led by an excerpt from Joseph Torigian's biography of Xi Zhongxun (arguing Xi Jinping, like his father, balances ideology/security and development rather than fitting a left/right binary), paired with Rachel Cheung's reported feature on the Succession-style intergenerational handover crises gripping aging Chinese family-owned firms. It also carries a Big Picture on China's greying migrant workforce and a substantive Kyle Chan Q&A on the limits of China's supply-side industrial policy. The combination of an original biographical extract, a reported business feature, and an expert Q&A gives it lasting reference value.
Xi Jinpingfamily-business successionindustrial policymigrant laborelite politics
TIER 4 Sun, 3 Aug 2025 23:15:10 +0000
A full weekly issue led by a cover profile of Stanford scholar Chenggang Xu, a Cultural Revolution survivor and Party expert whose 800-page Institutional Genes argues for the centrality of the CCP. It pairs this with Michael Kovrig's first-hand warning on detention risks for foreign travelers, a data feature on China's visa-free tourism recovery, the July 7 Microsoft hack, and a Tai Ming Cheung Q&A on military-civil fusion. Strong reference value across Party scholarship and China travel risk.
CCPChenggang-Xutravel-riskmilitary-civil-fusiontourism
TIER 4 Sun, 31 Aug 2025 23:15:03 +0000
The cover story is an excerpt from Dan Wang's book Breakneck, biking through Guizhou and Chongqing to ask how China's fourth-poorest province built infrastructure rivaling New York's, and whether such state-driven 'engineering state' miracles are sustainable — a vivid lens on the strengths and weaknesses of Chinese autocracy versus U.S. democracy. Companion pieces cover the education ministry steering students from humanities to STEM (drones, quantum), Hong Kong's 20x Laopu Gold stock, a Perry Link 'anaconda in the chandelier' Q&A, and an Alicia García-Herrero piece on green-tech overcapacity — a rich, idea-driven issue.
Dan Wang BreakneckinfrastructureSTEM educationLaopu Goldgreen tech overcapacity
TIER 4 Wed, 3 Sep 2025 15:15:07 +0000
A standalone Lucy Hornby News & Analysis feature on Qi Xin, Xi Jinping's centenarian mother, tracing how the eight-year war against Japan shaped her, her path to Yan'an and marriage to Xi Zhongxun, and her influential role in promoting her husband's legacy and her son's rise. An original, well-reported profile that illuminates the formative family history behind China's most powerful leader, timed to the 80th-anniversary WWII victory parade.
Xi JinpingQi XinXi ZhongxunCCP historyWWII
TIER 4 Mon, 8 Dec 2025 00:14:49 +0000
The cover is an excerpt from Minxin Pei's new book 'The Broken China Dream', arguing Xi reinstituted fear and revived totalitarian rule, reversing the post-1989 hope that economic reform might widen civil society. The issue also covers foreign F&B chains (e.g. Burger King) turning to local partners to survive China, a Big Picture on China's leading AI agents, a Marc Hijink Q&A on Nexperia, and Ludovic Subran on the 'electro-state'.
Minxin PeiXi totalitarianismforeign F&B brandsAI agentsNexperia
TIER 5 Fri, 13 Feb 2026 20:44:44 +0000
The standalone cover story (later folded into issue #36) in which The Wire China reviewed thousands of the 3M+ DOJ Epstein files to reconstruct Jeffrey Epstein's ambitions to do business in China, brokered through UK Labour politician Peter Mandelson and David Stern (a close associate of Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor). The documents show Epstein and Stern discussing deals involving China's wealthiest figures and princeling offspring of senior leaders. Original investigative work mining primary documents for a China angle no one else covered.
Epstein filesPeter MandelsonDavid SternprincelingsChina business deals
TIER 4 Fri, 20 Feb 2026 16:00:51 +0000
A Q&A with historian Frank Dikötter (interviewed by Jonathan Chatwin) on his new book Red Dawn Over China, covering the CCP's early history from the 1920s through the anti-Japanese war and the 1940s civil war, and countering long-held Party mythology around events like the Long March. Dikötter argues the Party's founding-era paranoia about imperialist encirclement and its conviction to hold power at all costs persist in its DNA today. Substantive intellectual content from a leading China historian with lasting reference value on CCP origins.
CCP historyFrank DikötterLong MarchChinese civil warParty legitimacy
TIER 4 Sun, 31 May 2026 23:15:37 +0000
Anchored by an excerpt from Fordham scholar Dongxian Jiang's book 'Why China Needs Democracy,' the issue argues that liberal democracy could work in China and that the contest between the two systems is unresolved, timed to the Tiananmen anniversary. It pairs this with a Q&A with historian Jeffrey Wasserstrom (China as 'Brave New World' over '1984'), a substantive analysis of why Chinese AI services are being forced to raise prices ('the illusion of cheap AI is breaking down'), a JinkoSolar company profile, and op-eds comparing Trump-Xi to Nixon-Mao and on German industry's deepening localization in China. It matters for the AI-economics argument and the book-driven democracy debate.
democracyTiananmenAI economicsJinkoSolarGermany-China
National-Security Cases — Espionage, CFIUS, Telecom, and Drones
1 tier-5 · 6 tier-4
The investigative-thriller register: concrete national-security cases where a single company or person becomes the test of US-China security policy. The flagship is Huawei's origin story — how chasing rogue regimes first triggered US alarm in 2001 — and around it cluster the contested-firm dramas: TP-Link's lobbying that its Vietnam-made routers aren't a threat, DJI fighting a ban that police say would cost lives, the Jupiter Systems CFIUS reversal, and the alleged spy cases (the Manila ring tied to hypersonics, Alice Guo the spy-mayor, agriscientists treated as potential spies). These are The Wire at its most procedural — ownership records, court filings, CFIUS dockets — turning the abstract security debate into named defendants and specific products.
TIER 4 Mon, 9 Dec 2024 00:14:58 +0000
The cover story investigates the case of Alice Guo, an alleged Chinese spy who became a Philippine mayor while running an online gambling (POGO) operation, using it to expose Southeast Asia's metastasizing criminal underworld and how Beijing appears to play both sides—to its own detriment and advantage. The issue adds infographics on Xinjiang forced-labor links in the global pharma supply chain, a Jerome Cohen Q&A on China's rule by law, and pieces on Chinese AI catching up and Trump's likely China approach. Compelling investigative reporting on transnational crime and statecraft.
online gamblingPOGOAlice GuoSoutheast AsiaXinjiang pharma supply chain
TIER 5 Mon, 13 Jan 2025 00:15:14 +0000
The cover story is an excerpt from Eva Dou's book 'House of Huawei' recounting how Huawei built an early global presence by chasing rogue regimes—setting up in Iraq before Saddam's fall—and thereby first triggered US national-security alarm back in 2001, long before the 2019 confrontation. Paired with a TP-Link infographic, a Fiona Cunningham Q&A on China's 'information-age weapons,' and pieces on developing-world demands of China and Xi's ideological constraints, it has lasting reference value as origin-story journalism on the central US-China tech-security relationship.
HuaweiEva Dounational securityTP-Linktelecom
TIER 4 Sun, 6 Apr 2025 23:15:13 +0000
Cover-story profile of DJI, the world's largest drone maker, as it fights a potential U.S. ban with one hand tied behind its back amid a fierce national-security debate. It matters because U.S. police and first responders insist a ban would cost American lives, exposing the tension between security hawks and the practical dependence on a beloved Chinese product. The issue also carries a Q&A with Elizabeth Economy on what the U.S. should want from China and a reported piece on China's renewable-energy waste reforms.
DJIdronesnational securityChina banElizabeth Economy
TIER 4 Mon, 3 Nov 2025 00:15:34 +0000
The cover by Brent Crane examines how Chinese agriscientists in the US — vital to crop research yet increasingly treated as potential spies — are caught between American security fears (e.g. the 'crop fungus' case) and Beijing's self-sufficiency push. The issue also carries Noah Berman's investigation tracing sanctioned Cambodian Prince Group chairman Chen Zhi's network into China and the US, a Big Picture on Apple's hard-to-relocate China supply chain, a Jennifer Lind Q&A, and Mark Clifford on Wall Street in Hong Kong.
agriscience espionagePrince Group/Chen ZhiApple supply chainsanctionsHong Kong finance
TIER 4 Mon, 24 Nov 2025 00:14:59 +0000
The cover is a book excerpt by two former DIA officials on alleged Chinese espionage — a Manila-based spy ring tied to hypersonic-missile targeting and theft of US defense technology. The issue also runs a Big Picture on China-Japan economic stakes amid the Takaichi-Taiwan crisis, a feature on why US police and the Army buy cheap Unitree robodogs over Boston Dynamics, a Jung Chang Q&A, and Yanmei Xie on the 'Reverse Deng' tech-transfer flip.
espionagehypersonicsrobodogs/UnitreeChina-Japantech transfer
TIER 4 Sun, 17 May 2026 23:15:41 +0000
The cover story profiles TP-Link, America's largest consumer-router supplier, and its China-born founder Jeffrey Chao as they lobby to convince Washington (especially FCC chair Brendan Carr) that their Vietnam-made, California-headquartered routers are not a national-security threat. The issue adds a feature on under-the-radar Chinese AI-supply-chain winners (Victory Giant, Kingboard, Zhongji Innolight), a Big Picture on China's first use of its 2021 Blocking Rule and its anti-sanctions toolkit, a Q&A with WSJ China bureau chief Jonathan Cheng on North Korea, and an op-ed urging deeper U.S.-India tech cooperation. It matters for original reporting on a contested telecom-security company and China's countersanctions architecture.
TP-Linktelecom securityFCCanti-sanctions lawAI supply chain
TIER 4 Sun, 14 Jun 2026 23:15:47 +0000
The cover story reconstructs how the Biden administration discovered that Jupiter Systems, a California maker of video processors sold to U.S. government and military clients, had been quietly bought in 2020 by Chinese firm Suirui without CFIUS knowledge, and how Trump's administration and a federal judge are forcing it back under U.S. control. Supporting pieces include a Big Picture breakdown of the Pentagon's updated 1260H list of 188 PLA-linked firms, an argument for U.S.-China cooperation on open-weight AI, a Q&A with trade-war authors Soumaya Keynes and Chad Bown, and a data feature tracking China's $1 trillion surplus dollars. It matters as original investigative reporting on a concrete foreign-investment national-security case plus useful policy context.
CFIUSnational securityforeign investment1260H listUS-China
Corporate China and Multinationals in the Crossfire
0 tier-5 · 10 tier-4
Company-level case studies of firms caught in the US-China vise — both the multinationals deciding whether to stay (Apple's $275bn bet at the worst moment, Volkswagen doubling down as rivals flee, the "tipping point" scorecard for foreign firms) and Chinese champions navigating the gauntlet (Luckin's fraud-to-comeback, the tea-billionaire IPOs, vape makers exploiting US regulatory gaps). Around them sit the policy-and-economics Q&As that frame the corporate calculus — Yellen and Oren Cass on tariffs, Rush Doshi on a steady state, the Germany-opens-to-China debate. The throughline is The Wire's signature mode: using one company's predicament as a microcosm of the larger decoupling story, where corporate strategy and geopolitics have become inseparable.
TIER 4 Sun, 1 Sep 2024 23:14:49 +0000
A cover story surveying more than a dozen leading China experts and policymakers on what the next U.S. president's China priorities should be and how Beijing might react, pegged to Jake Sullivan's pre-election meeting with Xi. It matters as a curated multi-expert policy slate ahead of the Trump-Harris election, paired with a Jeffrey Ding Q&A on tech adoption versus innovation and a piece on Black Myth: Wukong's industry impact.
U.S.-China policyelection 2024expert surveyJake Sullivantech competition
TIER 4 Mon, 11 Nov 2024 00:15:06 +0000
A data-driven, sector-by-sector cover story by Rachel Cheung arguing that a growing number of multinationals have hit a 'tipping point' in China, where the costs of doing business now outweigh returns as the high-growth era ends and geopolitical and domestic risks become permanent. It matters as a structured bull-versus-bear scorecard for foreign firms weighing whether to stay, paired with a Big Picture on why Chinese firms still IPO in the U.S. and a Dean Cheng Q&A on the U.S.-China space race.
multinationals in Chinaforeign investmentdecouplingChina growth slowdownspace race
TIER 4 Mon, 16 Dec 2024 00:15:08 +0000
The cover story argues Volkswagen is the most interesting multinational in the world, doubling down with $13 billion of China investment (four times Toyota, eleven times GM) just as rivals retreat, and poses the existential question of whether VW can survive in China while thriving at home amid cratering share, EU tariffs, and Chinese competitors. Supporting items include a Big Picture on Chinese carmakers' US ambitions, a Shirley Kan Q&A on the Taiwan Relations Act at 45, China's factory-floor robotics push, and a Merkel-China critique. A strong corporate-strategy study of the global EV race.
VolkswagenEV raceGermany-ChinaTaiwan Relations Actindustrial robots
TIER 4 Mon, 6 Jan 2025 00:14:59 +0000
The cover story ('The Great Brew Battle') tracks Luckin Coffee's improbable rebound from its 2020 Nasdaq accounting-fraud scandal to surpassing Starbucks in China, now jeopardized by a vicious price war with Cotti Coffee, a near-clone founded by Luckin's ousted leadership. The issue also includes a Tesla China supply-chain infographic flagging sanctioned suppliers, a Barry Naughton Q&A on Xi's economy and 'Grand Steerage,' and a Stephen Roach op-ed on China's consumption struggles. A vivid corporate case study of China's consumer-market dynamics.
Luckin CoffeeCotti Coffeeprice warTesla supply chainChinese economy
TIER 4 Sun, 23 Mar 2025 23:14:57 +0000
Lead Q&A with Rush Doshi, former Biden NSC China director and author of The Long Game, on achieving a 'steady state' in U.S.-China relations and whether Washington can split Moscow from Beijing. The substantive interview is paired with an Emily Feng book excerpt on the viral scooter thief and the 'lying flat' movement, plus a reported piece on threatened U.S.-China biotech tie-ups. The cover (Lip-Bu Tan) is the standalone next issue.
Rush DoshiTaiwantariffsUS-China strategybiotech
TIER 4 Fri, 18 Apr 2025 13:31:30 +0000
A standalone Q&A in which American Compass economist Oren Cass—among the most consistent intellectual defenders of tariffs—lays out for Noah Berman the rationale behind Trump's tariff policy, the flaws he sees in the existing global trading system, and prospects for a China deal, a broader trade-and-finance accord, and the dollar's trajectory. A substantive interview giving the strongest steelman of the pro-tariff case.
tariffsOren Casstrade policyglobal trading systemdollar
TIER 4 Sun, 4 May 2025 23:15:01 +0000
A full weekly issue led by Rachel Cheung's reported cover story on the 'vicious cycle' crushing China's private book-publishing industry—vanishing margins, predatory online platforms and influencers, and Xi's censorship and shuhao licensing regime. The package adds a Chagee/Zhang Junjie tea-billionaire IPO Big Picture, an Alicia Garcia Herrero op-ed against Europe drifting toward China, a Meredith Oyen migration Q&A, and Ali Wyne's 100-day Trump assessment. Strong original feature plus useful surrounding analysis.
book publishingcensorshipChagee IPOEurope-Chinamigration
TIER 4 Sun, 18 May 2025 23:15:05 +0000
A full weekly issue anchored by Patrick McGee's book-adapted cover essay arguing Tim Cook doubled down on China at exactly the wrong moment—secretly committing $275 billion in 2016 just before Trump's election and Xi's term-limit abolition—snaring Apple in an inescapable geopolitical trap. It pairs a Rachel Cheung profile of departing Hong Kong activist investor David Webb, a tariff-tracking Big Picture, a Henry Huiyao Wang track-two Q&A, and a five-scholar tribute to Joseph Nye. Rich mix of original analysis and reference-grade reporting.
Apple in ChinaTim CookHong Kong governanceDavid Webbtariffs
TIER 4 Fri, 18 Jul 2025 16:30:03 +0000
A standalone long-form Q&A with former Treasury Secretary and Fed chair Janet Yellen in one of her first major post-office interviews, covering her China dealings across three administrations, her critique of Trump's tariffs as unable to shrink the deficit or add jobs, and her call for more Chinese clean-energy investment in the US. She candidly details friction inside the Biden White House and difficulty accessing the president. Substantive primary-source insight from a top US economic policymaker.
Janet-Yellentariffstrade-policyTreasuryBiden-administration
TIER 4 Mon, 23 Feb 2026 15:30:13 +0000
An op-ed by Jörg Wuttke (three-time president of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China) timed to Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Beijing visit, arguing Germany should open itself to Chinese investment to access China's know-how and capital as the trade balance has reversed against it. The argument inverts the usual de-risking frame: Germany once ran the surplus, now China does, and Wuttke contends sustained surpluses are unhealthy for whoever holds them. Useful as a contrarian, authoritative voice on the EU-China economic rewiring.
Germany-ChinaMerz visittrade surplusChinese investmentEU-China
US-China Statecraft — Summits, Tariffs, and Trade Diplomacy
0 tier-5 · 6 tier-4
The high-politics narrative arc, dominated by the Trump-Xi Beijing summit and the question of whether Washington has abandoned trying to change China's economic model in favor of pragmatic "constructive stability." The reporting canvasses experts on the summit's meaning (no fundamental Taiwan shift, the $14bn arms-sale as next test), reads the corporate guest lists as signaling, and tracks the trade machinery — the "Board of Trade" framework, the year of roller-coaster tariffs, the Geneva truce. A second strand watches the China-hawk consensus itself fracture as Trump 2.0 opens with surprisingly little China focus, leaving Congress's hawks "squawking" into a vacuum, and reframes presumed Chinese vulnerabilities (Venezuela) as already-managed risks.
TIER 4 Mon, 27 Jan 2025 00:15:10 +0000
The lead Big Picture maps the personnel of Trump's incoming China team, distinguishing longtime hawks from businessmen enriched by US-China ties, as a continually updated reference on who shapes policy. Supporting pieces cover Britain and Canada diverging on China under Trump, the fate of CHIPS/IRA money, a Coca-Cola 'soda science' Q&A on US-China scientific entanglement, and an op-ed on DeepSeek's R1 matching OpenAI at a fraction of the cost. A useful personnel-and-allies orientation for the new administration.
Trump China teamDeepSeekUK and CanadaCHIPS Actexport controls
TIER 4 Tue, 18 Feb 2025 19:44:56 +0000
A substantive Q&A with Senator Tom Cotton, one of Congress's most hawkish China voices, tied to his new book arguing Beijing's threat is graver than most Americans grasp. He calls for fundamentally restructuring the US-China economic relationship, an immediate TikTok ban, barring Chinese nationals from owning US land, and addresses Elon Musk's China ties and DOGE's potential impact on China-research groups. Useful for reading the policy direction of the hawkish wing shaping Trump-era China legislation.
Tom CottonChina hawksTikTok banElon MuskUS-China policy
TIER 4 Tue, 25 Feb 2025 15:00:50 +0000
Standalone News & Analysis by Noah Berman reporting on the unspoken nervousness within the Republican foreign-policy establishment as Trump's second term opens with surprisingly little China focus and a lower-than-promised tariff hike. It matters as an early read on a possible vibe shift away from the bipartisan hawkish consensus, sourced to muted hawks who won't yet voice doubts publicly.
China hawksTrump second termRepublicanstariffsforeign policy
TIER 4 Sun, 15 Jun 2025 23:15:03 +0000
A full weekly issue whose cover story profiles Elbridge Colby, the 'prioritizer' China hawk willing to pull back from Ukraine and the Middle East to concentrate US power against Beijing, and asks whether Trump would actually defend Taiwan. It pairs this with a data feature on the pandemic-driven decoupling of US-China educational exchange (Chinese students down from 370k to 277k; Americans in China under 2,000), Europe-China trade advice, a Chenggang Xu Q&A on calling China totalitarian, and Yu Yongding on stimulus. Good reference on US strategy and education decoupling.
Elbridge-ColbyChina-hawksstudent-exchangeTaiwandecoupling
TIER 4 Tue, 6 Jan 2026 18:44:53 +0000
A standalone Big Picture by Savannah Billman showing that, despite alarm over China's exposure after the US action against Maduro's Venezuela, Beijing had already been winding down its economic ties — Venezuela now supplies only a small fraction of China's oil imports, with few major loans or investments since before the pandemic. The data reframes a presumed Chinese vulnerability as a manageable, already-diminished risk. A useful, data-grounded corrective on China-Venezuela exposure.
China-Venezuelaoil importsMaduroBelt and Road lendinggeopolitical risk
TIER 4 Sun, 24 May 2026 23:15:28 +0000
The cover story canvasses seven Chinese and U.S. experts and former officials (plus a prisoner's relative) to assess the Trump-Xi Beijing summit, concluding Trump made no fundamental change to Taiwan policy and shifted toward 'constructive stability,' with the $14 billion Taiwan arms-sale decision flagged as the next test. It adds a Big Picture on summit-dinner corporate guest lists, Victor Shih's op-ed on Trump squandering a strong hand, an analysis of the lopsided Russia-China power balance, a feature on Chinese memory-chip makers gaining from a global shortage, and a Q&A with author Joe Studwell on Africa's development. It matters as multi-expert assessment of a pivotal summit plus the memory-chip supply-chain angle.
Trump-Xi summitTaiwanRussia-Chinamemory chipsAfrica development
Diaspora, Soft Power, Surveillance, and the China Question
0 tier-5 · 4 tier-4
The human-and-cultural register — China's projection of influence abroad and its tightening control at home. The reporting follows the new wealthy, educated post-Covid Chinese diaspora that the Dupont Circle bookstore embodies (more influential than the post-Tiananmen émigré generation), the soft-power contest where Beijing's assertive nationalism may undercut its own cultural dynamism, and the perfected surveillance state as seen through a Tibet that has faded from global attention. The Hainan EP-3 oral history anchors the cluster as original reporting on how the two systems handle crisis — and on the anti-Chinese discrimination the diaspora still faces in America.
TIER 4 Sun, 15 Sep 2024 23:14:49 +0000
Nithin Coca's cover story on how Tibet faded from global attention as Beijing's digital surveillance and censorship matured — ending the visible self-immolations and solidarity protests of the past — and asks what a fully controlled Tibet means as a template for the future. It matters as a window into the perfected surveillance state, alongside a Big Picture breakdown of Congress's 'China Week' bills and an Eliot Chen piece on sanctions gaps.
Tibetsurveillance statecensorshipChina Week legislationsanctions
TIER 4 Mon, 23 Dec 2024 00:14:56 +0000
The cover story uses a rebooted Shanghai bookstore in Washington's Dupont Circle as a lens on the new, wealthy, educated, professional post-Covid Chinese diaspora, arguing this cohort is more influential than the post-Tiananmen émigré generation and has both the means and motivation to speak out. The issue adds a Miles Yu Q&A on Trump-era China policy, a Big Picture on China's collapsing box office, and a piece on the rise of mini-dramas. A thoughtful read on diaspora soft power and cultural emigration.
Chinese diasporasoft powerMiles Yubox officemini-dramas
TIER 4 Sun, 29 Mar 2026 23:15:10 +0000
Full weekly launching Part I of the original Hainan spy-plane oral history marking the crisis's 25th anniversary, featuring Condoleezza Rice's recollection of the dangerous absence of a US-China hotline. Also: Rachel Cheung on the OpenClaw AI-agent frenzy gripping China and its data-security worries, an XPeng company profile, a Q&A with Neil Shearing on the 'fractured age' of US-China rivalry, and a Canadian Xinjiang forced-labor controversy.
Hainan spy plane 2001oral historyOpenClaw AI agentXPengUS-China rivalry
TIER 4 Sun, 5 Apr 2026 23:15:16 +0000
Full weekly carrying Part II of the original oral-history series on the 2001 Hainan EP-3 spy-plane crisis, with eight first-person accounts from CIA, State Department, and EP-3 crew participants illustrating the gulf between US and Chinese crisis-management systems. Also: Noah Berman on China's solar industry surging into Africa, a Big Picture on Big Pharma's $50bn licensing spree with China, a Q&A with Michael Luo on anti-Chinese discrimination in America, and an analysis of China's shrinking lending to poor countries.
Hainan spy plane 2001oral historyChina solar in AfricaChina pharma dealsChina lending